2016 Sugar Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
January 01 ( 8:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
S&P+ Projection: Ole Miss 35.9, Oklahoma State 27.8
Team Sites: Cowboys Ride For Free, Red Cup Rebellion
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Oklahoma State | Ole Miss | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 26 | 7 | ||
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Ole Miss defense | Ole Miss offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.25 (20) | 4.68 (21) | 6.70 (7) | 5.29 (61) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 486.8 (19) | 387.3 (57) | 511.6 (13) | 423.9 (95) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.91 (16) | 1.63 (28) | 2.98 (13) | 2.02 (62) |
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Ole Miss defense | Ole Miss offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.8 (18) | 20.8 (23) | 40.6 (11) | 27.1 (58) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 85.8 (114) | 118.1 (18) | 113.7 (23) | 105.4 (48) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 124.6 (15) | 110.8 (30) | 146.2 (2) | 110.4 (32) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.2 (87) | 113.8 (24) | 129.9 (1) | 107.1 (39) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 137.7 (7) | 107.8 (44) | 135.0 (9) | 112.7 (30) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.5 (29) | 120.8 (21) | 150.1 (1) | 102.7 (52) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.2 (60) | 122.0 (17) | 120.2 (23) | 97.9 (79) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.7 (37) | 106.6 (51) | 126.8 (14) | 120.2 (20) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.7 (14) | 119.2 (18) | 124.9 (8) | 108.2 (43) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Oklahoma State
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
- Field Position (No. 12 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
- Field Position (No. 37 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 44 defense)
Ole Miss
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 30 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Ole Miss defense | Ole Miss offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.38 (17) | 1.20 (34) | 1.35 (25) | 1.29 (85) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.7% (42) | 38.1% (36) | 49.9% (6) | 40.1% (58) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.3 (37) | 30.2 (76) | 30.0 (64) | 26.9 (12) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.5 (7) | 4.0 (22) | 5.4 (13) | 5.1 (104) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Oklahoma State -1.11 (83) Ole Miss 2.06 (52) | ACTUAL Oklahoma State 13 (7) Ole Miss 0 (65) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Oklahoma State offense | Ole Miss offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.9 (41) | 0.7 (53) |
| Plays per game | 77.9 (33) | 76.3 (44) |
| Possessions per game | 14.2 (13) | 13.5 (39) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 52.7% (104) | 49.1% (117) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 25.2% (110) | 26.2% (106) |
| % of solo tackles | 79.3% (33) | 75.8% (53) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Oklahoma State defense | Ole Miss defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.5% (80) | 55.8% (106) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 38.2% (23) | 29.4% (107) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.7% (68) | 19.1% (20) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.1% (49) | 9.7% (62) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.5% (92) | 9.4% (4) |
| PD to INC | 27.2% (111) | 39.6% (13) |
When Oklahoma State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Oklahoma State Offense | Ole Miss Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.2 | 87 | 113.8 | 24 | Ole Miss big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.7 | 84 | 42.6 | 33 | Ole Miss big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 66 | 1.14 | 31 | Ole Miss |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.45 | 122 | 2.50 | 17 | Ole Miss big |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.7% | 98 | 3.6% | 104 | |
Passing Downs
| Oklahoma State Offense | Ole Miss Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 137.7 | 7 | 107.8 | 44 | Oklahoma State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 39.8 | 7 | 30.2 | 61 | Oklahoma State big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.02 | 14 | 1.90 | 30 | Oklahoma State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.24 | 124 | 3.81 | 121 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.4% | 16 | 8% | 49 | Oklahoma State |
When Ole Miss has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Ole Miss Offense | Oklahoma State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 129.9 | 1 | 107.1 | 39 | Ole Miss |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.6 | 13 | 46.1 | 61 | Ole Miss |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.28 | 8 | 1.02 | 83 | Ole Miss big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.64 | 105 | 3.02 | 88 | Oklahoma State |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.4% | 19 | 6.3% | 24 | |
Passing Downs
| Ole Miss Offense | Oklahoma State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 135.0 | 9 | 112.7 | 30 | Ole Miss |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 40.1 | 6 | 26.6 | 29 | Ole Miss |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.58 | 106 | 1.63 | 101 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.58 | 1 | 3.36 | 78 | Ole Miss big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.2% | 63 | 13.9% | 2 | Oklahoma State big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Oklahoma State | Mason Rudolph | 6'4, 220 | SO | 246 | 393 | 3591 | 21 | 9 | 62.6% | 27 | 6.4% | 8.2 |
| Oklahoma State | J.W. Walsh | 6'2, 215 | SR | 48 | 71 | 663 | 13 | 1 | 67.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.3 |
| Oklahoma State | Taylor Cornelius | 6'6, 190 | FR | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 40.0% | 2 | 28.6% | -1.1 |
| Ole Miss | Chad Kelly | 6'2, 215 | JR | 277 | 425 | 3740 | 27 | 12 | 65.2% | 16 | 3.6% | 8.2 |
| Ole Miss | DeVante Kincade | 6'0, 184 | SO | 9 | 15 | 79 | 1 | 0 | 60.0% | 1 | 6.3% | 4.4 |
| Ole Miss | Ryan Buchanan | 6'3, 218 | SO | 8 | 12 | 96 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 8.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Oklahoma State | Chris Carson | RB | 6'2, 202 | JR | 121 | 504 | 4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 38.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Rennie Childs | RB | 5'10, 205 | JR | 69 | 282 | 2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 39.1% |
| Oklahoma State | J.W. Walsh | QB | 6'2, 215 | SR | 67 | 285 | 11 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 32.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Raymond Taylor | RB | 5'8, 195 | JR | 46 | 294 | 4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 43.5% |
| Ole Miss | Jaylen Walton | RB | 5'8, 172 | SR | 134 | 690 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 38.1% |
| Ole Miss | Chad Kelly | QB | 6'2, 215 | JR | 82 | 557 | 10 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 57.3% |
| Ole Miss | Akeem Judd | RB | 5'11, 222 | JR | 71 | 382 | 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 45.1% |
| Ole Miss | Jordan Wilkins | RB | 6'1, 214 | SO | 67 | 331 | 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 41.8% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Oklahoma State | James Washington | WR | 6'0, 200 | SO | 100 | 52 | 970 | 9 | 18.7 | 9.7 | 52.0% |
| Oklahoma State | David Glidden | WR | 5'8, 185 | SR | 77 | 53 | 807 | 3 | 15.2 | 10.5 | 68.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Marcell Ateman | WR | 6'4, 210 | JR | 59 | 40 | 696 | 5 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 67.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Brandon Sheperd | WR | 6'1, 195 | SR | 39 | 20 | 303 | 3 | 15.2 | 7.8 | 51.3% |
| Oklahoma State | Jhajuan Seales | WR | 6'2, 198 | JR | 31 | 17 | 312 | 2 | 18.4 | 10.1 | 54.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Austin Hays | WR | 6'2, 190 | JR | 30 | 22 | 200 | 1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 73.3% |
| Oklahoma State | Jalen McCleskey | WR | 5'10, 156 | FR | 28 | 26 | 302 | 4 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 92.9% |
| Ole Miss | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 6'2, 210 | JR | 114 | 77 | 1094 | 8 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 67.5% |
| Ole Miss | Damore'ea Stringfellow | WR | 6'2, 220 | SO | 58 | 36 | 503 | 5 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 62.1% |
| Ole Miss | Quincy Adeboyejo | WR | 6'3, 195 | JR | 53 | 37 | 581 | 7 | 15.7 | 11.0 | 69.8% |
| Ole Miss | Cody Core | WR | 6'3, 205 | SR | 51 | 33 | 553 | 3 | 16.8 | 10.8 | 64.7% |
| Ole Miss | Evan Engram | TE | 6'3, 227 | JR | 48 | 32 | 368 | 2 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 66.7% |
| Ole Miss | Markell Pack | WR | 6'2, 193 | SO | 37 | 29 | 370 | 3 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 78.4% |
| Ole Miss | Jaylen Walton | RB | 5'8, 172 | SR | 30 | 22 | 166 | 0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 73.3% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Oklahoma State | Jordan Sterns | S | 6'1, 205 | JR | 85.5 | 11.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Jordan Burton | LB | 6'3, 215 | JR | 74.0 | 9.6% | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Chad Whitener | LB | 6'1, 240 | SO | 72.0 | 9.4% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Tre Flowers | S | 6'3, 190 | SO | 66.5 | 8.7% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Seth Jacobs | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 52.5 | 6.8% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | 6'4, 275 | JR | 51.0 | 6.6% | 17.5 | 13.0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Vincent Taylor | DT | 6'3, 300 | SO | 37.0 | 4.8% | 7.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Kevin Peterson | CB | 5'11, 190 | SR | 33.5 | 4.4% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Ashton Lampkin | CB | 5'11, 185 | JR | 25.0 | 3.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Devante Averette | LB | 6'0, 230 | JR | 23.5 | 3.1% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma State | Jimmy Bean | DE | 6'5, 250 | SR | 22.5 | 2.9% | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Michael Hunter | CB | 6'0, 191 | SR | 17.5 | 2.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Trace Clark | DE | 6'4, 257 | SR | 17.5 | 2.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | DeMarquis Gates | LB | 6'2, 217 | SO | 57.5 | 7.7% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Mike Hilton | DB | 5'9, 184 | SR | 55.5 | 7.4% | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Trae Elston | DB | 5'11, 195 | SR | 54.0 | 7.2% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Denzel Nkemdiche | LB | 5'11, 208 | SR | 44.5 | 6.0% | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Marquis Haynes | DE | 6'3, 220 | SO | 32.5 | 4.4% | 14.0 | 9.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Kendarius Webster | DB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 31.0 | 4.2% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | C.J. Johnson | LB | 6'2, 225 | SR | 31.0 | 4.2% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ole Miss | Tony Bridges | DB | 6'0, 183 | JR | 30.5 | 4.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Channing Ward | DE | 6'4, 279 | SR | 26.5 | 3.5% | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | D.J. Jones | DT | 6'0, 324 | JR | 26.5 | 3.5% | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Christian Russell | LB | 6'0, 232 | SR | 24.0 | 3.2% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Fadol Brown | DE | 6'4, 280 | JR | 23.5 | 3.1% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Terry Caldwell | LB | 6'1, 216 | JR | 23.0 | 3.1% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Oklahoma State | Zach Sinor | 5'11, 195 | FR | 63 | 40.1 | 3 | 26 | 26 | 82.5% |
| Ole Miss | Will Gleeson | 6'3, 197 | SO | 41 | 40.5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 56.1% |
| Ole Miss | Gary Wunderlich | 6'0, 188 | SO | 7 | 46.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 71.4% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Oklahoma State | Ben Grogan | 6'1, 186 | JR | 87 | 59.9 | 22 | 25.3% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | Matt Hockett | 6'3, 195 | FR | 2 | 68.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | Nathan Noble | 6'3, 224 | JR | 86 | 64.1 | 47 | 54.7% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ole Miss | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 194 | SO | 1 | 64.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Oklahoma State | Ben Grogan | 6'1, 186 | JR | 59-62 | 14-18 | 77.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Matt Hockett | 6'3, 195 | FR | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| Ole Miss | Gary Wunderlich | 6'0, 188 | SO | 57-57 | 17-22 | 77.3% |
| Ole Miss | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 194 | SO | 3-3 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Oklahoma State | Jeff Carr | 5'7, 168 | FR | 29 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Oklahoma State | Brandon Sheperd | 6'1, 195 | SR | 5 | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Ole Miss | Jaylen Walton | 5'8, 172 | SR | 23 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 (1) |
| Ole Miss | Carlos Davis | 5'8, 171 | JR | 3 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Oklahoma State | Jalen McCleskey | 5'10, 156 | FR | 20 | 5.4 | 1 | 27 | 4 (1) |
| Oklahoma State | Brandon Sheperd | 6'1, 195 | SR | 1 | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Ole Miss | Carlos Davis | 5'8, 171 | JR | 13 | 5.5 | 0 | 9 | 4 (2) |
| Ole Miss | Collins Moore | 6'1, 201 | SR | 13 | 1.6 | 0 | 10 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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