Losing a special player like LeBron James could've pushed Pat Riley and the Miami Heat to rebuild, but with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade willing to re-sign, the team president decided to prioritize the short-term. On Thursday, Riley doubled down on that plan by trading three first-round picks and some fodder to the Phoenix Suns in order to acquire star guard Goran Dragic.
Heat go all-in with Goran Dragic trade
The future is now for Miami after giving up major assets for Goran Dragic. A look at their lack of future draft picks and cap space makes that very clear.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
If there was any doubt about Miami’s desire to start winning again soon, it evaporated when ESPN’s Marc Stein dropped the bomb that a deal was done for Dragic. One of the best point guards in the league, Dragic was a third-team All-NBA selection with Phoenix last season but was openly frustrated this year after seeing a decrease in his role.
Now Dragic heads to South Beach to get Miami back to its winning ways, and there’s little doubt now about where the franchise’s timeline sits. Less than a year after the breakup of the Big Three, the future is now for the Heat once again. They’re all-in for the next couple years.
That’s because they gave up most of their flexibility.
A lack of picks
Go look at any rebuilding team, or the Philadelphia 76ers in an extreme case, and you'll see a stockpile of draft picks. They're valuable assets for trades, as the Dragic deal reflects. More importantly, they can yield the affordable, high-potential players who often make up contending teams. There's no easier way to acquire a star player than to get on board before the ascent.
Unfortunately for the Heat, the Dragic deal further depletes an already limited supply of picks, as you can see from the list of picks the team has already dealt:
- 2015 first-round pick to 76ers (top-10 protected in 2015 and 2016, unprotected in 2017)
- 2016 second-round pick to Celtics (unprotected)
- 2017 first-round pick to Suns (top-7 protected in 2017, unprotected in 2018)
- 2017 second-round pick to Hawks (Picks 31-40 protected in 2017, unprotected in 2018)
- 2019 second-round pick to Timberwolves (via Hornets)
- 2021 first-round pick to Suns (unprotected)
That doesn’t leave the team much help for the next couple seasons, both in terms of rookies and trade possibilities. We should also probably highlight that last one again: the Suns will be getting an unprotected pick from Miami in six years. Who knows how good the Heat will be by then? It’s a massive risk to send out an unprotected first-round pick so far out.
But again, the Heat don’t seem to mind, because this is all about winning while Bosh and Wade are still effective. The duo reached the All-Star Game again this season, though Wade didn’t play due to injury, and now Dragic comes in to shoulder part of the load.
It just better work out because there’s not really an alternative for the next couple years.
A crowded cap
The Heat obviously didn’t trade a bunch of draft picks to acquire Dragic as a rental, so it’s fair to assume the team will pursue a five-year max-level contract extension with the point guard. The exact figures on that deal won’t be determined until the 2015-16 salary cap is announced, but general estimates would put the deal around $100 million.
That'll mean a constrained cap going forward. The team already has roughly $68 million committed (assuming all player options are exercised) to Bosh, Wade, Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, Chris Andersen, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Shabazz Napier and emerging big man Hassan Whiteside.
Re-signing Dragic for nearly $20 million annually would push the team’s cap total closer to $90 million and possibly require a substantial luxury tax payment to the league. Owner Micky Arison may be willing to do that for one year -- he’s a billionaire and highly supportive owner -- but the team’s current roster will essentially stay intact for at least another season.
Things loosen up a bit after 2015-16, as Wade’s expensive two-year deal and several other contracts come off the books, but the Heat have effectively committed to Bosh and Dragic as their two core players and must re-sign Whiteside. It’ll be a while before there’s cap space, either by letting players go or seeing a major increase from the upcoming TV deal, to bring in more reinforcements.
An aging roster
Other than breakout big man Whiteside, there’s not a ton of young talent on Miami’s roster. Napier has largely been a disappointment and the rest of the team’s rotation players are all 27 or older. Wade recently turned 33 and Bosh hits 31 next month.
So we’re talking a team that not only doesn’t have a ton of draft picks or cap space, but also features an older roster lacking in prospects. The vast majority of the players on Miami have already peaked, and the ones who haven’t left their primes aren’t exactly stars: Chalmers, McRoberts and ... who else?
Whiteside is undoubtedly the bright spot, and it’s encouraging that Riley managed to unearth a gem without using many resources. Still, this Heat roster isn’t going to get way better over the next couple years unless he keeps finding more Whitesides, and that’s easier said than done.
The bigger focus, one imagines, will be on keeping the veteran stars healthy. And the Heat better, because otherwise the Suns might be using their pick at the top of the draft in 2021.
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