Fountain of Youth Stakes starts the Road to the Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred racing fans both casual and serious begin to take notice as this weekend launches the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Over the course of the next seven weeks, 3-year-old horses, each one different from the next, will clash in hopes of finding their way into the starting gate for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

What makes the Road to the Derby so special is its natural process of “the survival of the fittest.” These young and relatively inexperienced horses are asked to compete at the highest level over a short duration of time, a schedule that their older comrades would never dare to test. And while winning a Derby prep race puts a runner at the highest level and guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby field on the first Saturday in May, only one horse with a combination of endurance and brilliance and peaking at the exact right time will get his picture taken.

The first real major test for 3-year-old horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby is the Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream Park, just 30 minutes north of Miami Beach. In its 76th edition, the Grade II Fountain of Youth is run at 1 1/16 mile (8.5 furlongs) for a purse of $400K.

What makes the Fountain of Youth such an important race is not only does the winner get to run in the Kentucky Derby, but historically speaking it is a proven foundation for race horses that go on to be stallions.

These best-of-breed 3-year-old race horses have tremendous earning power on the track, but off the track as a stallion that figure is exponential. A typical stallion impregnates 100-125 mares a year. Stallion stud fees range in price, but the longevity of a proven stallion is upwards of 10-plus years. The chart below lists the last 10 Fountain of Youth Stakes winners, if they went to career as a stallion, their current fee and which farm they reside.

Now, you don’t need to be a savant to do quick math (mares x years x stud fee) and see why a race horse becoming a stallion is the dream of every owner. What’s amazing is the Fountain of Youth is more important to the future of a stallion than winning one of the three Triple Crown races: the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes.

Eight of the last nine retired Fountain of Youth winners have gone on to post-racing stallion careers, with six of those eight part of the “who’s who” in the stallion world.

Five of the eight competitors raced against each other a month ago and the clear winner was Upstart (#7). His main challengers look to be the two horses inside him, Itsaknockout (No. 5), trained by Todd Pletcher, the perennial leading trainer in the US and the only one to win this race twice in the last 10 years, and Frosted (No. 6), a well-bred runner who adds blinkers (blinds to keep him from looking around) and should be able to stay closer to the pace.

The Play: From a betting perspective this is not an appealing race. The three favorites are the three best in here, while the other five runners are really outsiders. However, for those who reside in states where wagering on horse racing is legal, and must get action, a small place wager on Frosted should do the trick.

Here are the Pace Figures and Brisnet Past Performances for the race.

The full field for the Grade II Fountain of Youth from Gulfstream Park.

Editors Note: This is the first field I have ever seen with four grey horses and one ridgling (look it up).

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that measures how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners: Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist, and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.