It’s a monumental weekend in horse racing with no less than four major events on the docket:
California Chrome leads huge racing weekend
California Chrome will be back in the limelight this weekend, racing in the world’s richest thoroughbred horse race. Elsewhere, early Kentucky Derby favorites like American Pharoah and Dortmund are in action.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
- California Chrome is in Dubai to run in the world’s richest thoroughbred horse race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup. The live broadcast will take place on Fox Sports 1 at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday.
- The Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park (just north of Miami), is a Grade I $1 million Derby Prep race where at least the winner and second-place finisher will be guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby. The Florida Derby will air live on NBCSN Saturday with a post time of 6:48 p.m.
- The Louisiana Derby from the Fair Grounds in New Orleans is a Grade II $750,000 Derby Prep race where the winner and second-place runner will become automatically eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby. The Louisiana Derby will also air live on NBCSN Saturday at 6:24 p.m.
- The Kentucky Derby Future Pool No. 4 is available all weekend, featuring American Pharoah and Dortmund. These two horses are considered the favorites to win the Derby, both trained by legendary horseman, the Silver Fox, Bob Baffert.
Let’s dive a little deeper into each event and see where the winning angles might be.
The Dubai World Cup
If you’ve never watched a race from Dubai, you must. Purely from a broadcast perspective it is amazing. There are a multitude of camera angles, but none better than the moving vehicle with a mounted camera following the pack around the track. The super-imposed distance markers down the stretch let you know how close the wire is and provides amazing contrast for casual racing fans. Though there is no betting in Dubai (which would make Mickey Rourke scratch his head), the U.S. does make a legal betting market for this eight-figure event.
California Chrome starts from the outside post and is the 6-5 morning line favorite. He made the 8,000-mile trip and has acclimated well to the track and desert environment. A mild concern is his normal exercise rider didn’t take him through his paces on Friday. That being said, there is a real buzz about another U.S. horse named Lea. Owned by Claiborne Farm, the first family of racing, this could be a case where the American runners sweep the $10 million exacta.
The Florida Derby
Long considered one of the major stepping stones to the Kentucky Derby, this race features a rematch between Upstart and Itsaknockout. Ironically, Upstart knocked out Itsaknockout in their most recent race, the Grade II Fountain of Youth, causing a disqualification that placed him second and moved Itsaknockout up to first. Notwithstanding, we look elsewhere and outside of these two morning-line favorites to find our Florida Derby pick -- Materiality.
Two-for-two lifetime, Materiality is the most lightly-raced runner in the field with just two starts. He’s raced twice at Gulfstream Park and won each by a combined 10 lengths, showing a stalking style. His Mom (dam) produced a couple of average racehorses before his half-sister My Miss Sophia hit the track. My Miss Sophia ran second in the Kentucky Oaks at 9f in 2014 (behind Untapable, the best female racehorse in the country), earning over $400,000 in her short racing career. If quality siblings come in pairs, then Materiality has plenty of upside to improve.
Get Predicteform’s full race analysis and FREE Pace Figures for the Florida Derby.
The Louisiana Derby
A wide open race with five horses between odds of 3-1 and 5-1, we are going to layer on Materiality by picking Stanford, the No. 1 horse at 5-1 odds. Stanford ran second to Materiality in his last race and if the latter is as good as we suspect, the former should be too. In a field that is not quite as tough as the Florida Derby, Stanford has value at 5-1 morning line.
Get free Past Performances and Pace Figures for the Louisiana Derby.
Kentucky Derby Future Pool No. 4
Believe it or not, you can actually legally bet on the Derby winner this weekend in the future pool. Whether you play online, at the local off-track betting shop or on-track, the Derby Future Pool No. 3 will handle somewhere in the $500,000 range, making for a few overlay opportunities.
Take a look at Keen Ice, the No. 16 entry at 50-1 odds. He runs in the Louisiana Derby and currently sits as the 21st horse on the Derby leaderboard. A top-four finish should get him in the Derby, which we think will happen. From a pace and running style, he will like the added distance. Also, International Star, the No. 14 entry at 20-1 is second on the Derby leaderboard. If he continues to improve and runs well in the Louisiana Derby, he could make for an interesting Derby horse.
Click to get free Past Performances and Pace Figures for the Kentucky Derby Future Pool.
Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.
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