Road to the Kentucky Derby 2015 continues with Gotham and San Felipe Stakes

The Kentucky Derby trail heats up this weekend as the City of Angels and Gotham City play host to significant Derby prep races. Santa Anita Park features nine three-year-olds competing in the $400,000 San Felipe Stakes while New York hosts 10 juniors in the $400,000 Gotham Stakes. And with a spot in the Derby starting gate guaranteed for each race winner, this gets racing fans excited.

But what about casual racing fans? We enjoy the races, visit the track once or twice and year and make sure we watch the Kentucky Derby, Preakness (in Baltimore) and Belmont Stakes (in New York), but beyond that, thoroughbred racing seems complicated. So why should we care about this weekend in racing?

The most famous horse currently running, four-year-old California Chrome, won the 2014 San Felipe Stakes on his way to winning the 2014 Kentucky Derby. The greatest racehorse of all-time, Secretariat, won the 1973 Gotham Stakes as his stepping stone to conquering the 1973 Kentucky Derby. History has a way of repeating itself, which means the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner just might be revealed on Saturday.

Secretariat

It’s well known that Secretariat won the 1973 Triple Crown, winning the Belmont Stakes by an amazing 31 lengths to secure the victory. He ran that mile and a half in 2:24, not only the fastest Belmont ever but also a world-record on time on dirt which still stands today.

On his way to winning the Triple Crown, Secretariat won the Gotham Stakes and set the track records for both the Derby and the Preakness. The most impressive feat to this horse racing fan is the fact that Secretariat ran each of the five 1/4 miles within the Derby at successively decreasing times, meaning he was going faster at the end of the race than at the beginning. Folklore narratives speculate his heart was twice as big as the average thoroughbred, weighing over 20 pounds -- the true heart of a champion.

California Chrome

Forty-one years after Secretariat won the Gotham Stakes on his way to the Triple Crown, a little-known horse named California Chrome emerged on the west coast racing scene to win the San Felipe Stakes by 7.5 lengths. California Chrome’s mating cost just $10,000 ($8,000 to buy the mom Love the Chase and $2,000 to breed her to the Stallion Lucky Pulpit), considered a pittance in the Sport of Kings.

Chrome brought racing to the national spotlight as fans around the country and world rooted for this underdog. After winning the Derby and Preakness, Chrome lost his bid to win the Triple Crown after being stepped on at the start of the Belmont Stakes. By that time, though, his legend was already cemented, and to this day Chrome is the single biggest draw in the horse racing world.

Get Secretariat and California Chrome lifetime Past Performances.

Tencendur (8-1 morning line) - Though the big favorite El Kabeir will be tough, we’ll look elsewhere for value. Named after a French warhorse, Tencendur has experience running at Aqueduct, a big plus during these winter months. He has run faster in each of his three starts while managing his energy effectively. There are at least four horses in this race who will go to the lead, likely setting it up for a closing run. That’s his running style, and he is our pick.

This ultra competitive Derby prep race features two undefeated runners -- Ocho Ocho Ocho (4-1) and Dortmund (8-5), both considered early Derby favorites. Of these two runners, there will be more value with Ocho Ocho Ocho, therefore we’ll side with him ... even though he hasn’t raced in three months.

For those interested, here is my in-depth Gotham Stakes race analysis and Predicteform Pace Figures for the San Felipe Stakes.

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.

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