Which surprising MLB division leaders will make the postseason?

Over the last 20 years, there have been 110 teams that finished April in first place. Of those teams, 62 made the postseason. That’s 56 percent. It’s possible to have a year like 2002, in which the Red Sox, White Sox, Mariners, Expos, Mets, Reds, and Dodgers all finished the first month with a share of first place but missed the postseason entirely. It’s unlikely, though. The odds are good that of the six first-place teams right now, at least three of them will make the postseason. The odds are decent that four of them will.

This comes up now because we have a bevy of surprising first-place teams. The Cardinals, Dodgers, and Tigers are surprising no one, but the Yankees, Astros, and Mets are all somewhere between a mild surprise and a complete shock. One of those last three teams just might make the postseason. The Yankees, Astros, and Mets probably shouldn’t be here. We’ll likely be saying that about one of them at the end of September, too. It’s our job to pick the most likely one. We’ll separate them into three categories.

Remember that we’re using weasel words: “the postseason.” That means these teams don’t have to win their division, and considering it was reasonable to pick the Mets to make the postseason before the season started, this fast start means they’re even more likely to make the postseason. If you are a logical, sporting person, you would put your fake money down on the Mets.

Pretend before the season, right as you were making your preseason predictions, someone whispered in your ear that Matt Harvey was as good as new. After the police left and you resumed making your picks, would that information have changed things for you? Probably. There were several unknowns with the Mets’ roster, but that was the biggest -- how a Tommy John survivor was going to respond. He’s as good as he ever was, if not better. The Mets have their ace back.

Something else that makes them a safe pick: They can get even better. They can sure hit a lot better than they have this season, at least. Jon Niese is almost certainly pitching over his head, but hardly anyone in the lineup is doing better than expected. Michael Cuddyer has been ordinary, at best, just like Curtis Granderson, Wilmer Flores, and Eric Campbell. Daniel Murphy has been a huge disappointment. The Mets aren’t going to turn into the 1998 Yankees once David Wright comes back, but they should be better than this. They have room to grow, and they have room to acquire players at the deadline.

So if you’re suggesting the Mets are the likeliest to make the postseason, that’s not exactly a risk at this point. They already have a head start. They were supposed to be close to this spot. Way to go out on a limb, you.

In those predictions linked above, I picked the Yankees to finish in last place, but at the bottom of the page I picked them to have the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP. This was a dumb joke, and considering the amount of feedback I got on it, it was a dumb and much too subtle joke. The punchline was that the Yankees were going to figure out some way to make that last-place prediction look stupid, and they were going to have another effective, contending season because they are both immortal and undead.

Also, I called it a “joke,” except I wasn’t exactly kidding, either. The Yankees are adept at screwing with baseball. It’s not dumb luck at this point. It’s not a glitch in the code. The Yankees, even in a post-Jeter haze, will always be better than they should be.

Check off the awful things that are happening to the Yankees, too.

And yet the Yankees are still moving. Shotgun can’t bring them down. Your garlic is useless. Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .351. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have combined to out-homer the White Sox. Their bullpen has been unhittable. Whereas last year they finished above .500 despite being outscored by 31 runs, this year they’re exactly where they should be, considering the runs they’ve scored and allowed. If Drew and/or Gregorious are still stinking it up by the trade deadline, the Yankees have the resources to fix everything, too.

Why did I pick the Yankees to finish in last place? Because I’m a fraud who has not actually followed baseball for the last five years. I pay a college kid to write these columns while I play video games, and I don’t even know the rules of the sport. I’m more of a hockey fan. That’s why I picked the Yankees to finish last. Because I’m dumb and ignorant.

Stupid Yankees.

In 2013, the Astros lost their final 15 games of the season to finish with 111 losses. In one of those final games, Jonathan Villar led off and Marc Krauss hit cleanup. That was not an unusual occurrence, actually. Brandon Laird and Brett Wallace would also hit cleanup. One of the very best hitters on that 2013 team was given away for free in the offseason. The Astros were unspeakably bad.

In 2015, the Astros cannot be stopped. Dallas Keuchel has allowed just three earned runs in 37 innings, and Jose Altuve is playing like he would be the frontrunner for MVP in a non-Trout alternate reality. If you want to play a fun game, go through the current stats and pick out the players who are clearly playing better than they should be. Keuchel probably isn’t the greatest pitcher in baseball history, sure. Jake Marisnick will settle down eventually, yes.

Other than that, though, this is a roster filled with players doing what they’re supposed to, as well as players who can play so much better. Imagine this team with a functioning Chris Carter and Evan Gattis. Imagine this team with George Springer playing to his potential, and imagine them once they figure out what to do with the backend of their rotation. They’ve won five one-run games during their current 10-game winning streak, so some of it is luck, but they’ve also won games by five runs (twice), six runs, seven runs, and 11 runs. They can score, and they can prevent runs. It’s funny how the little things like that translate into wins.

A few months after those 111 losses, this magazine cover was something of a big deal:

Pick one. Pick two. Pick all three or none. The odds are for one of them, though. And if we’re lucky, we might wake up to a Yankees/Astros ALCS, with the winner moving on to face the Mets. Baseball has rarely made sense before. Why start now?