The Atlanta Braves are ahead of schedule

During the long, dull offseason, the Braves signed Nick Markakis. Weeks later, they traded the best hitters from a team that couldn’t hit last year. Then they traded their closer, one of the last remaining faces of the franchise. Somewhere in the middle, Markakis had neck surgery, and Zoilo Almonte was projected to play left and hit somewhere near the middle of the order. The Braves weren’t going to be bad. They were going to be hilariously bad, with a chance to put up dead-ball numbers.

There were only three teams that I gave a zero chance to make the playoffs before the season: the Phillies, Braves, and Twins. I nailed the Phillies. That’s a .333 average, so I’m basically the Tony Gwynn of predictions. Please keep reading my baseball articles at SBNation.com for more baseball insight.

Braves fans weren’t upset at the implication that the team was going to be bad, though. They were upset at the implication that the Braves had a confusing offseason. It wasn’t so confusing, more than a few argued to me. It was a rebuilding + a Markakis. Simple. Even though, well, rebuilding teams don’t usually spend that much on their veteran help, okay. It was a simple rebuilding team. And we were all supposed to sit back and watch the worst Braves season in at least eight years, if not 26.

The zombie Braves are back, though. The team that was supposed to be 40 games under .500 by game 41 or so is hovering around .500. They’re just two games back of first place, and with the Nationals having one of those weird, loping seasons, it almost looks like the Braves have a shot.

Which brings us to the headline. Where are the Braves? What should they do? Why won’t they go away? Why won’t they ever go away?

There are three scenarios:

As in, don’t be fooled by the near-.500 record. If the Nationals could play half as well as they were supposed to, they would be eight games up. And not only are the Braves a win ahead of their Pythagorean record, but they’re a couple wins ahead of their expected record according to BaseRuns. The odds are decent that this is a team that will continue to give up more runs than they score. That’s not a good way to win baseball games.

So keep unbolting the furniture and putting it in the driveway. Have your kids sell some nasty, under-sugared lemonade. Everything is still for sale. Every player over 25 with a scrap of value should be on another team by August.

This is right about where the Braves figured they would be when they traded Craig Kimbrel, remember. They didn’t want to be the 2012 Astros, but they didn’t have a lot of illusions about competing against the Nationals’ super-rotation, so they sold high on their closer.

Defined as that weird purgatory between rebuilding and contending, where they’ll listen to offers at the same time they’re figuring out ways to make the team immediately better. Take the Juan Uribe trade, for example. It didn’t block a majors-ready prospect. It’s not going to mess with payroll next year. But it made them an incrementally better team in the present.

This scenario doesn’t end with them going for Cole Hamels at the deadline, mind you. It’s more about the absence of moves. Cameron Maybin’s renaissance isn’t an opportunity to ditch the $9 million the Braves still owe him; it’s a welcome development that will help the Braves this year and next. A.J. Pierzynski’s refusal to go away and hit .180 like good, decent Americans have wanted for years isn’t an invitation to trade him for a C-prospect; it’s a way to help a young staff and add a little offense at the same time.

Besides, this isn’t a roster that has a lot of gaping holes that can be easily fixed at the deadline. The big hole was third base, and they’ve addressed that. Other than a corner outfielder who can hit more than Jonny Gomes or Todd Cunningham (once Kelly Johnson comes back to earth, that is), there isn’t an obvious villain in the lineup.

Again, it seems silly to write that about a team that’s a game under .500, but here’s a list of players:

There are 13 players (eight position players, five starting pitchers) on every team, roughly, that can be called starters. Almost a third of that starting core on the Braves is made of players 25 or younger who are already among the best players at their position. That’s a heckuva head start.

Those are three more players 25 or younger who can contribute, and are contributing, to a major-league team right now. We’re up to more than half of that starting core being ready to win in the short- and long-term scenarios.

Whoa, hey, four veterans who can also contribute. That’s a cool 11 out of 13 players who make sense on a contending team, as long as they’re playing well. A notable omission is Julio Teheran, who was one of the best pitchers in the NL just a few months ago, so the Braves aren’t dummies for holding out hope that they can fix whatever’s screwy with him. That also goes for Christian Betancourt at the plate, but he’s contributing enough defensively (and has help with Pierzynski) to stick with him.

Which leaves left field, the bench and the bullpen as possible upgrades. Assuming they aren’t going to go nutty and get someone like Hamels, those are very, very attainable deadline upgrades that wouldn’t cost any of the 25-and-under core. Going for it is a valid option, assuming the Nationals keep tripping over their own feet.

And maybe going for it includes them going nutty for a premium player, after all. You can see the talent on the roster, so if you can add even more without messing with the major-league roster ... it might make a lot of sense to be aggressive.

I whiffed on the Braves this offseason. They’re under .500, sure, but they’re a quietly compelling team that’s a lot closer than I thought. There was a projected lineup this offseason that had Melvin Upton hitting second, Chris Johnson hitting cleanup, and Alberto Callaspo after that, and I reacted appropriately. Oh, how things can change in just a couple months.

The Braves will probably take the second scenario, holding steady and focusing on 2016, but making a couple minor moves, just in case. There’s an argument to be made, though, that they should be really bold at the deadline and speed things along. You can’t say that about a lot of under-.500 teams, but the Braves have a unique mix of young talent and veterans that will allow them to be a little weird.