NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: The SuperContest begins!

The 2015 NFL season is officially back, and that means NFL gambling is back in our lives. Some folks enjoy a little bit of preseason wagering, but for the most part, this week kicks off the gambling season for most NFL fans. And it could not come soon enough. The offseason was filled with intrigue and absurdity. That nonsense will continue, but starting Sunday, we get a small respite each week.

The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. While I have done my share of sports gambling in the past, this is my first contest entry, so I will take you along for the ride. The odds are pretty good I’ll finish closer to the bottom than the top of the standings, but maybe I’ll get lucky!

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

Consider this a wager counting on Seattle’s swiss-cheese offensive line to cost them. They still have Marshawn Lynch, and added Jimmy Graham to the mix, but the Rams deep defensive line could do some serious damage to the Seahawks offensive line. Russell Wilson can escape the pocket, but I have a hunch that Rams line causes serious problems. I don’t know that the Rams will win this outright, but they are going to give the Seahawks problems.

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Saints

The New Orleans Saints lost a big piece of the puzzle this offseason, trading Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks. Drew Brees will still find ways to make things happen, but this is a different team on the road vs. in the Superdome. I won’t be picking against them every week, but I want to take advantage of the road Saints when I can early this season.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

I was planning on making this pick much of the week, and the addition of Aldon Smith on Friday only solidified the decision. Even before signing Smith, I viewed the Raiders as a team on the rise. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper could create a great connection, and Latavius Murray brings a strong presence on the ground. Adding Smith to a pass rush that already includes Khalil Mack could be ridiculous. Even if Smith only plays 10 or 15 snaps, he can be an incredibly effective option. Andy Dalton could be running for his life much of the day.

BRONCOS (-4.5) over Ravens

I want to take advantage of the Broncos while Peyton Manning can still be effective. That means getting in on these September and October picks. When November and December get here, things are going to go south in a hurry. This Broncos team welcomes a Ravens team that has questions on offense following the loss of Torrey Smith. I don’t know that they can hang with the Broncos offense.

49ERS (+2.5) over Vikings

The 49ers opened as a 4.5-point favorite when lines opened in April. At that point, Adrian Peterson’s future with the Vikings was in question. Five months later, AP is set to start on Monday, and heavy money poured in on Minnesota. The public loves these Vikings, viewing them as a playoff darkhorse. While I see them contending for a playoff spot, this first game is not going to be a gimme. As awful as the 49ers offseason has been, they are still a west coast team facing a team traveling out for the late 10:20 p.m. ET kickoff. I think the 49ers have enough talent remaining to be interesting. If you couple that with the late kickoff time, I like the 49ers to cover.

Here are all my picks for Week 1:

PATRIOTS vs. Steelers (+7): Patriots - PUSH
BEARS vs. Packers (-7): Packers
TEXANS vs. Chiefs (+1): Chiefs
JETS vs. Browns (+3.5): Browns
BILLS vs. Colts (-2.5): Colts
WASHINGTON vs. Dolphins (-3.5): Dolphins
JAGUARS vs. Panthers (-3): Jaguars
RAMS vs. Seahawks (-4): Rams
CARDINALS vs. Saints (+2.5): Cardinals
CHARGERS vs. Lions (+3): Chargers
BUCCANEERS vs. Titans (+3): Bucs
RAIDERS vs. Bengals (-3): Raiders
BRONCOS vs. Ravens (+4.5): Broncos
COWBOYS vs. Giants (+6.5): Giants
FALCONS vs. Eagles (-3): Falcons
49ERS vs. Vikings (-2.5): 49ers