Fantasy football start/sit advice based on Week 3 NFL picks against the spread

If Week 1 taught us that it was impossible to be wrong, Week 2 taught us that just isn't the case. If you watched any of the afternoon slate, there's really no need to elaborate. But for those living under a rock, just know the St. Louis, Miami, and Baltimore defenses you drafted as premium matchup plays each finished 20th, 30th, and 31st, not respectively. The best bang for your buck? You guessed it: the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns defense scored 4.3 points per thousand spent, racking up 20 points against a Titans offense that looked nothing like whichever version showed up against the Buccaneers in Week 1. If you think this came out of nowhere, well, it sorta did. Those 20 points brought Cleveland's season total on FanDuel to, yep, 21. If we learned anything, it should have been 1) no matter the research, these things happen, 2) because these things happen it should only emphasize the importance of bankroll management, and 3) I don't want to do this anymore.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+1.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

There's someone reading this right now who had heard about some column at SB Nation that touched on every NFL matchup from a fantasy perspective and wanted to see what the big deal was. He's still reading at this very moment, waiting to come across the first piece of advice rather than an irrelevant sentence about him reading. And then he sees it: Nick Foles should be in every lineup this week.

For those that stuck around, allow me to explain myself. The Steelers have allowed an average of 27 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (32nd in the league) and are showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, going back to last season, if you had just streamed the opposing team's quarterback blindly, you would have started on average the 12th ranked QB each and every week. Pittsburgh may lead the league with 10 passing plays of 25+ yards, but that only bodes well for a Rams team that will be looking to keep up. Let others pay up for the more expensive skill positions featured in this game while you snipe a minimally-owned 20-point player at low cost.

NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Last week, Eric Decker against anyone but Vontae Davis was the right call. Brandon Marshall had caught only two passes up until the time when Decker went out, seeing a bevy of targets immediately following that incident. This week, it's the opposite. Marshall will be lined up across from Byron Maxwell and should be owned in 100 percent of both GPP and cash games. If you're not sure why, just watch the cornerback's highlight reel below.

Through two games, Maxwell has been thrown at 19 times and allowed 15 receptions for 240 yards and two touchdowns. Last week alone, he allowed Terrance Williams (who runs only two routes, mind you) to burn him on nearly every skinny post faced. Marshall should finish with upwards of 10 targets and could easily return the value of his $7,400 salary by halftime.

As for Philadelphia, I would suggest avoiding that debauchery until further notice. Sixteen of Sam Bradford's 23 completions against the Cowboys occurred within four yards of the line of scrimmage, meaning that as of this moment, Jordan Matthews remains the only Eagles player worth rostering. And stop worrying about him in your weekly lineups; very rarely has Darrelle Revis moved inside to cover the slot receiver. I'm just not going anywhere near him in tournaments.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2) over San Diego Chargers

With Ladarius Green (concussion) likely out, the Chargers should look to all of Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, and even Malcom Floyd a tad more. Unfortunately, Minnesota has allowed only one pass of 20 or more yards this season. Though Johnson (currently WR14 in PPR leagues) may still find some running room, I'll be all over Adrian Peterson and the opposition come Sunday. Peterson received 31 touches against the Lions last week and should be universally owned in all cash games. As a home favorite of less than a field goal, it's likely the Vikings stave off fine-tuning their passing game for another week.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over New Orleans Saints

Though this game could shape up in favor of Jonathan Stewart, Cam Newton seems to be the best play here. The Saints have allowed an NFL-leading 8.9 yards per attempt and are susceptible to just about any facet of offense their secondary is forced to defend.

Clearly more of a GPP play than cash game, Ginn is currently ranked WR41 in PPR leagues and has received nearly 25 percent of the Panthers targets. If it weren't for a dropped touchdown pass in Week 1, Ginn would be ranked in the Top 25. With Jerricho Cotchery having yet to practice this week. now would be the first--and only--time to unleash Ginn in your tournaments.

Oh, and if you were thinking this would be the week Brandin Cooks finally returns his value, think again. Josh Norman upgraded from basic cable to DirecTV over the weekend, having now allowed only 55 yards in 21 attempts thrown in his direction.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

I'm not sure what happened against Oakland last week, but that performance from the Ravens should only be considered a blip on the radar. They're still thought of by many to be one of the representatives in San Fransisco at the end of the season and pose a tremendous threat to owners hoping to continue riding Andy Dalton's above-average play through two weeks. Historically, Dalton has been terrible against his AFC North brethren, averaging 221 yards and a completion rate of 58 percent. A.J. Green has caught a touchdown in three consecutive games against the Ravens but even that might not come to fruition this Sunday. Even so, run as far away from Tyler Eifert as you can.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There's more than enough value to be had here. It's just a matter of figuring out where to place your exposure. For instance, Julian Edelman has currently racked up the most targets ever (33) through two games. It's likely everyone and their mothers will own him. But much like any other player we've gone into the weekend having a general estimate of their lofty ownership, there's more value to be had by simply avoiding Edelman in all GPPs. Want to use him in cash games? Fine. But being favored by nearly two touchdowns, the game script doesn't exactly give much bumper room for Patriots receivers (Gronk included) to see another 59 passes divided amongst them. This one has LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis written all over it (good luck figuring out which one.)

Of course, that only matters if the Jaguars aren't able to match point-for-point with New England, and (gulp) I believe they can. The Patriots defense has allowed 10 runs of 10 or more yards (2nd most in the NFL) and seven passing plays of at least 25 yards (also 2nd in the league.) They've basically implemented the "bend but don't break" strategy, allowing for a league-high 5.7 yards per carry in the process. If garbage-time is reached, Allen Robinson (cash games) and Allen Hurns (GPP) will be the biggest benefactors. But I'm inclined to forego potential game flow and sprinkle T.J. Yeldon, who's guaranteed at least 20 touches, in some of my head-to-heads.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Despite facing the third fewest plays this season, the 49ers have allowed an NFL-leading 6.6 yards per play. On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals have scored the most points (79) in the league and Larry Fitzgerald, for whatever reason, remains the 24th-highest (lowest?) priced receiver. You know what to do.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Oakland Raiders

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Per Pro Football Focus, Luck has been blitzed 43 times this season, the most of any quarterback. This, as well as his offensive line play, has resulted in the worst QB rating (58.9) among the 34 players that have attempted a pass this year. That's right, even Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer rank higher than Luck in something. With Dick Lebeau around in Week 3, I don't think that number changes. Still, I wouldn't be all too hesitant to load up on Donte Moncrief (who leads the Colts in both receptions and receiving yards) and T.Y. Hilton in most formats. That is, as long as the line doesn't creep towards Tennessee Sunday morning (and I suspect it might.)

DALLAS COWBOYS (+1) over Atlanta Falcons

In a weekend scattered with lower projected totals, Brandon Weeden and the Dallas offense is somehow expected to score just over 20 points. On the surface, that seems fair. The Cowboys will likely look to run the ball against the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. But a majority of those points have been accumulated by means of check-downs and receptions as Atlanta limited DeMarco Murray and Rashad Jennings to a combined 1.2 yards per carry. I personally think this game will result in a much lower score, especially since the Cowboys have held opponents to a combined 106 rushing yards on the year (1st in the NFL.)

I know it's Jones, and I know it's hard to not pay max salary for a player of his caliber, but take a good long look in the mirror and approach this one properly. Either spend very little for Leonard Hankerson (who remains matched against an exploitable Tyler Patmon in the slot) or don't pay at all. The line movement suggests the latter.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills (+3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Check your Lamar Miller aspirations at the door. We'll have an intervention soon enough. For now, 23 carries for 67 yards just isn't going to cut it whether you own him in season-long formats or continue to be a masochist and pay up for him in tournaments. The Bills have allowed the second-most passing yards (although that number is admittedly skewed due to the 466 yards Tom Brady posted on them last week) and that remains the focus on Sunday.

As the great Adam Levitan pointed out in his playbook, Jarvis Landry has seen nine or more targets in seven of his last eight games. That doesn't bode well for a Bills defense that has allowed 28 percent of receiving yards against them to come from the slot. Throw Landry in those cash games and don't look back.

Denver Broncos (-3) over DETROIT LIONS

It's now or never for C.J. Anderson. Last week, the Vikings ran the ball 42 times against the Lions and still came away averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Furthermore, Detroit has allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season. Ronnie Hillman split snaps with Anderson a bit more against the Chiefs than he did during the Ravens in Week 1, but remains on the sideline during most passing downs. If Anderson can't produce this week, there's no telling what the Broncos backfield will look like next Sunday. Not only that, but with Demaryius Thomas's salary having dropped $100 during the week, there should be more than enough value to be had for less (especially in GPPs.)

In what's projected to finish as the highest scoring total of Week 3, the Alex Smith and Travis Kelce stack seems alive and well. As a dog of 24.5 implied points, Smith should exceed his $6,500 salary in no time. Jamaal Charles also wouldn't be a bad fit for GPPs and cash games this week.

As for the Packers, you already know who you're playing. James Jones continues to make the most of the few targets thrown his way, which leaves him out of all my cash games (and tournaments, for that matter.) But with Randall Cobb now fully healthy, the Green Bay slot receiver accumulated a team-high 11 targets against the Seahawks. That should continue against the Chiefs, who have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year.

Week 2 Exposure: Sam Bradford (9.8 points), Eli Manning (19.9), Johnny Manziel (14.9), Matt Forte (12.5), Mark Ingram (11.3), Tevin Coleman (9.2 before leaving with an injury), Jordan Matthews (17), Davante Adams (5.8), Odell Beckham Jr. (24.1), Travis Benjamin (31), Jason Witten (9.1), Martellus Bennett (6.8), Rams (4)

Week 3 Exposure: Nick Foles, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell, James Starks (if Lacy sits), Donte Moncrief, Brandon Marshall, Ted Ginn, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Hurns, Jarvis Landry, Cecil Shorts III (if DeAndre Hopkins sits), Rob Gronkowski, Broncos