NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: Throw away some money on the Browns and Falcons

Okay, so maybe betting on FIVE road teams to cover the spread wasn’t such a good idea. Erratic quarterbacks screwed it up, mostly. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six picks against the Chiefs. The 49ers have Blaine Gabbert ... that’s not so much an erratic quarterback as it just a terrible one on a terrible team. Who knew the Seahawks were going to score 37 points (we all probably should have).

The Cardinals were the Pacific Time team playing a 1:00 p.m. game in the Eastern Time zone, so like 10:00 a.m. for them. I’m not sure that all of Carson Palmer’s problems can be blamed on the time zone change. He hasn’t been very good in his own time zone.

And then there was that Colts game, beating the Chargers in Indianapolis, 26-22. San Diego was a 1.5-point underdog, so at least it was close ... kind of. Betting on the Colts is kind of a difficult proposition this year anyway.

Colts (-2) over JAGUARS (London)

So what if you want to put a sawbuck on the London game against the Jaguars? The Colts are favored by two. It’s a reasonable spread. Playing in the UK never works out well for struggling teams, and I’m not so sure the Jaguars have truly hit rock bottom yet. There’s tradition of bad coaches getting fired after London games. Gus Bradley looks like he could be the next.

Weirdly enough, despite their 0-3 record, the Jags are 2-1 against the spread. That luck doesn’t translate well against the Colts; they’re 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against Indy.

Bet on the Colts.

(All odds courtesy of OddsShark. Home team in all caps).

JETS (+1.5) over Seahawks

Yeah, I’m really not too confident in this pick, but, hey, it’s your money! The bet here is the West Coast team playing a 1:00 p.m. game on the East Coast.

Browns (+7.5) over WASHINGTON

Both teams are 1-2 against the spread this season. Both teams are wildly disappointing. But at least the Browns have an excuse. Washington’s roster is loaded with talent, particularly on the offense.

They just can’t seem to make it work, thanks to Kirk Cousins being terrible. He misses open receivers and the passes he does throw are not very accurate. Plus, there’s just the time-honored tradition of Washington melting down.

I’m not just here to clown on Washington, though. The reason I’m picking the Browns to cover here is because Hue Jackson is desperate and he’s being really innovative with his offense, which mostly consists of Terrelle Pryor. Washington may very well win this one, but I just don’t see their defense being able to contain Pryor and the Browns’ offense enough to keep more than a touchdown between them.

Broncos (-3) over BUCCANEERS

I really don’t know how the spread for this game is only three points. Denver should double that, at least.

Take the over here. It’s 43 points, and I think the Broncos are good for at least 35 of that.

FALCONS (+3) over Panthers

The Panthers lost two games last season. One of those was the Super Bowl. The other one was a 20-16 loss in Week 16 to the Falcons in Atlanta.

The Falcons, weirdly enough, kind of developed the blueprint for beating Cam Newton and the Panthers: bring pressure, lots of it, and hit the quarterback over and over again. Obviously the Broncos didn’t need to blitz like the Falcons did — that’s the luxury of having Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, etc. — but it worked.

Carolina’s offense still doesn’t seem to know what the hell it’s doing. And Jonathan Stewart is out again this week; the Panthers really miss his blocking, not to mention a viable threat at running back.