The Steelers could overtake the Patriots for the top spot in the AFC, but they probably won’t

There’s a problem in the AFC. Outside of the New England Patriots, the rest of the conference is low-key terrible.

The AFC South has been a weak point for the last couple of seasons, but now the AFC North has quietly taken the mantle as the worst division in the league. With Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missing the next 4-6 weeks with a torn meniscus, the division is now wide open — even the winless Cleveland Browns still technically have a shot.

On paper, the Houston Texans appear to be a legitimate contender with a 4-2 record. But Brock Osweiler currently has a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and they lost to the Patriots 27-0 in Week 3 while rookie third-stringer Jacoby Brissett was starting at quarterback. With a performance like that, it’s difficult to buy into the Texans as a real threat. But they are still in better shape than the Indianapolis Colts, who are heading to their second straight sub.-500 finish despite having Andrew Luck on their roster.

The defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos won their first four games, but have now dropped two consecutive contests. The Oakland Raiders were a popular sleeper pick heading into the season and their high-powered offense has delivered so far. Their defense, however, is ranked last in the league.

The only loss for the Patriots this season came against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, but that was while Tom Brady was still serving his four-game DeflateGate suspension. Jimmy Garoppolo was also sidelined, so Brissett was forced to start the game with a thumb injury.

It’s clear the Patriots are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. But is anybody else in the conference?

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): When they’re healthy, the Steelers may have the most explosive offense in football. The problem is, all of their weapons rarely seem to be on the field at the same time.

This Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots was projected to be one of the marquee matchups of the season, but now Roethlisberger will be out of action for the foreseeable future. That means Landry Jones, who’s only started two games in his career, will be under center.

Jones has a lot to work with, but it’s worth noting how much No. 1 wide receiver Antonio Brown struggles when Roethlisberger isn’t in the lineup. The drop-off in production he experiences when other quarterbacks are playing is staggering.

If the Steelers’ offense isn’t putting up 30+ points on a regular basis, it’s difficult to see their defense carrying them to many victories. Pittsburgh’s D is currently 28th in the league.

Denver Broncos (4-2): Much like last season, the Broncos are winning on the strength of their defense. Linebacker Von Miller is second in the league in sacks and they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest points. But it’s unlikely to expect the Broncos’ defense to carry them on another deep playoff run.

Through the first four games, first-time starter Trevor Siemian appeared to developing at quarterback. But then he suffered a left shoulder injury earlier this month and struggled mightily in his return against the San Diego Chargers last week. If Siemian can’t be at least average under center, the Broncos will have an uphill climb in January.

Oakland Raiders (4-2): Derek Carr is turning into an elite quarterback. Through six games this season, he’s thrown for 1,608 yards with 12 touchdowns and a 99.1 QB rating. Few things are prettier than a Carr touchdown pass to either Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper.

But Oakland’s defense has failed to hold up its end of the bargain. The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most points in the league and were walloped by the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Jack Del Rio has never presided over a Super Bowl contender in his head coaching career, and it’s still too early to say whether the Raiders can make a run.

Houston Texans (4-2): Maybe Osweiler’s performance in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Indianapolis Colts last week is a harbinger of things to come. The Texans scored two touchdowns with less than three minutes to go in regulation and drove down the field in overtime. Up to this point, though, Osweiler has been a disappointment for $72 million.

The Texans are also without J.J. Watt on defense, who’s expected to miss the rest of the season after re-injuring his back. His last appearance came in Week 3 against the Patriots, which was a wretched performance from a supposedly contending team. In addition to fumbling two kickoffs, the Texans didn’t even cross midfield until there were less than two minutes left in the third quarter.

But because they’re in the AFC South, the Texans have a great chance to win the division and host a playoff game. But they can’t be expected to go much further than that.

Buffalo Bills (4-2): Here’s something wild: if the Bills defeat the Miami Dolphins this weekend, and the Patriots lose, they’ll be in first place in the AFC East. Even if New England wins, they have a chance to be only one game back when the two teams face off next week.

As good as Rex Ryan’s Bills may feel about themselves right now, it’s worth noting that three of their four wins have come against the Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers, who have a combined record of 7-11. Their victory against the Patriots should also come with an asterisk: Brady was out of the lineup and Rob Gronkowski seemingly wasn’t at full strength, either.

And while LeSean McCoy is on pace to have one of the best seasons of his career (587 yards and six touchdowns in six games), he’s also dealing with a hamstring injury and could miss time. Still, Tyrod Taylor seems to be coming into his own. In this bizarro AFC, the usually inept Bills — who haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999 — may be one of the Patriots’ strongest challengers.

Baltimore Ravens (3-3): The Ravens won their first three games to start the season, but now they’re crashing back to Earth. It was an expected downfall, too, considering they won those three contests by just a combined 13 points.

And now, the injury bug is hitting them. This week, Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, and Jimmy Smith are on the injury list.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-4): After making the playoffs for five straight seasons, it seems like the Bengals have plateaued. Their offense is 29th in points scored and they still seem to lack discipline (Vontaze Burfict was just slapped with a $75,000 fine). After surviving more than a half-decade of playoff ineptitude, the Bengals might not even make it that far.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-2): Like most Andy Reid teams, the Chiefs will probably be in the race until the end. But a team that’s tied for 18th in points scored and ranked 10th in points allowed can’t be expected to make a legitimate run. Defensive end Justin Houston will be back from injury soon, though, which should give the Chiefs a boost.

Indianapolis Colts (2-4): The last-place Colts are only on this list because Andrew Luck is their quarterback and the AFC South remains wide open. The offensive line is still abysmal, giving up the most sacks and second-most quarterback hits in the NFL. The defense, as evidenced by their blown performance against the Houston Texans last week, isn’t much better.

Owner Jim Irsay may have given head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson a vote of confidence this week. But if the team continues to struggle, both of their jobs should be on the line — regardless of the extensions they signed this offseason.