NFL picks against the spread, Week 7: It’s a great time to bet on the Dolphins and Jaguars

Let’s start in London, where the NFL is bound and determined to expand its beachhead by sending quality teams like the Jaguars and Lions and Rams, oh my!

This is a home game only because Stan Kroenke took one for the team and agreed to play a gaggle of games overseas to help persuade the owners to approve the move to Los Angeles. That sure was nice of him.

If Kroenke cared as much about the product on the field as he did squeezing value out of his assets, the Rams could run away with this one. Instead, it’s a battle between two teams that only know how to do one thing: underwhelm expectations.

Get excited for more shitty football, English people!

Giants (-3) at RAMS

Final score: Giants 17, Rams 10

The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr., and the Rams don’t have much going for their secondary. And now that the Giants seems intent on getting OBJ involved in the offense, that bodes well for Big Blue.

Is anyone in Los Angeles going to get up at 6:30 a.m. PT on a Sunday to watch this?

By the way, this game is at Twickenham Stadium, one of two new venues the NFL is adding to its list of UK venues. So get used to even more early morning games not worth waking up for as the league scrambles to overextend itself in Roger Goodell’s quest for $25 billion a season.

(All odds via Oddsshark. We’ll update this post throughout the weekend as the lines change, so check back).

Ravens (+2) at JETS

It doesn’t look like the Ryan Mallett-Geno Smith battle we’ve all been waiting for is going to happen this week after all. Joe Flacco was practicing on Friday as a full participant. He gets a soft landing against a terrible Jets secondary too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line move back a little toward the Jets now.

Browns (+10.5) over BENGALS

I don’t know how and I don’t know why, but I just don’t trust the Bengals enough to beat anyone by 10.5 points right now, not even the Browns.

Colts (+3) over TITANS

This game is so bad I’m surprised it didn’t somehow get slipped into the primetime schedule this spring. Tennessee is playing better football lately. However, just because Mike Mularkey’s erotic smashmouth, or whatever his 1980s offense is called, should roll up 150 yards against a Colts defense manned exclusively by Ryan Grigson’s terrible decisions, doesn’t mean they will. This is the AFC South.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Bills

Miami rattled off a pretty convincing win against the Steelers last week. That was only the fifth time the Steelers have had Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the field together in 24 possible games. The Dolphins held them to less than 300 yards of total offense. If LeSean McCoy ends up not playing for the Bills, the Dolphins’ job is that much easier.

The key for Miami’s offense seems to be limiting Ryan Tannehill’s role to game-manager and letting the running backs do most of the work. Jay Ajayi probably isn’t running for 204 yards this week, but Buffalo’s defense has been susceptible to the ground game.

Betting against Miami not overthinking this is always a little risky, but you make your money on the underdogs.

Chargers (+5) at FALCONS

Okay, we have established that the Falcons are indeed for real, after a convincing road win over the Broncos and narrow road loss to the Seahawks. This probably has trap game written all over it then.

San Diego is not going to win this game, but they are a solid 4-2 against the spread this year, despite a 2-4 record. Late collapses are the bettor’s friend.

JAGUARS (-1) over Raiders

I’m making this pick because I believe the Jaguars are turning things around. Sure they are.

EAGLES (+3) over Vikings

The Vikings should win this one straight up. Philly’s defense won’t be as passive as they have been the last two weeks though, not with Jim Schwartz ready to explode in a ball of rage. That’s why I think the home team can cover.

LIONS (-1) over Washington

I don’t know how Washington keeps winning, but they’re not doing it five times in a row.

Saints (+6) over CHIEFS

I can’t figure out the Chiefs. They’re at home and should get the win. But the Saints can score enough points to cover that spread, most of the time.

49ERS (-1) over Buccaneers

This one comes down to Roberto Aguayo, the Buccaneers’ second-round rookie kicker, versus cagey old guy Phil Dawson.

Patriots (-7) over STEELERS

No spread is too big for the way the Patriots are playing right now. Also, the Steelers are starting Landry Jones.

This Landry Jones.

Seahawks (+1) over CARDINALS

Seattle is 4-2 against the spread in their last six road games against the Cardinals. Arizona has been playing better. So have the Seahawks, and their better is way better than the Cardinals’ better. Got that?

Texans (+9) over BRONCOS

I just want Brock Osweiler to wipe the smile off John Elway’s face for a week. We’ll see.