Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 11

Week 10 was weird. Running backs who finished in the top 10 in scoring included: Ryan Mathews, CJ Prosise, Bilal Powell and Damien Williams. Vernon Davis was the TE4. Doug Baldwin was the WR1.

Last week’s start/sit list was mostly beneficial. Sitting Colin Kaepernick was definitely the biggest miss, but aside from him and the two recommended tight ends to start (Zach Ertz and Zach Miller), hindsight looks good.

Let’s get to Week 11 and see what we can put together with four teams on bye once again.

QB Tyrod Taylor at Bengals
Taylor is the QB11 for the year. He put up 289 pass yards, 43 rush yards and two total touchdowns against the Seahawks before his bye. Now he faces a Bengals defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Only two defenses have allowed more passing touchdowns than Cincinnati.

QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Patriots
Since taking the reigns of the 49ers offense, Kaepernick has been the QB10 overall in fantasy points per game. I was admittedly wrong to doubt him last week, so here’s me attempting to make up for it. Kaepernick has 228 rush yards in four games. That’s the more promising aspect of this matchup. New England doesn’t possess much of a pass rush. While big underdogs don’t normally produce the fantasy points owners hope for, Kaepernick’s ability to run gives him a solid floor.

RB LeGarrette Blount at 49ers
This is really a no-brainer, but I’ve already seen some fantasy owners question whether to start him due to the lopsided nature of the matchup. The Patriots are huge favorites against the worst-run defense in the NFL (worst by a lot; they give up 180 yards per game). Blount has seen at least 13 touches in every game, and he’s on a five-game scoring streak. You don’t need any more convincing.

RB Spencer Ware vs. Buccaneers
We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Ware in 2016, but he’s struggled to get back on track since Week 7. He returned from a concussion in Week 10 to rush for 61 yards on 13 carries. This looks like a solid matchup to get him going again. Tampa allows 118.3 rush yards per game, ranking No. 25 in the NFL. Ware is dominating the touches in the backfield. The points will come.

WR Donte Moncrief vs. Titans
Over the last two years, Moncrief has played 11 games with Andrew Luck. His full-season pace with Luck puts him at 67 catches and 12 touchdowns. He’s coming off back-to-back games with a score. This matchup has the highest over/under for Week 11. The Titans allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers in their last five games. Should I keep going?

WR Jamison Crowder at Packers
The Packers have allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers, the second-most in the league. Basically every receiver on the Titans scored on them last week. Crowder’s role hasn’t diminished with Jordan Reed back in the lineup. He played 75 percent of the snaps last week. In a game with a 50.5 over/under, expect plenty of looks for Crowder, who has seen 28 targets in the last three games.

TE Julius Thomas at Lions
Tread carefully here. Thomas finished in the top 10 among tight ends last week with six receptions for 24 yards and a touchdown. That’s not a stat line that blows you away, but it shows how thin this position is. The Lions allow the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve given up nine touchdowns, tied with the Browns for the worst mark in the league. Thomas will consistently post below 30 yards receiving, but he has a touchdown in three of his last four games. If you’re in need of a streamer, look his way.

QB Joe Flacco at Cowboys
Flacco has two games with more than one passing touchdown in 2016. Both of those came against the Browns. Unfortunately he’s not playing Cleveland again in Week 11. Dallas and Baltimore each rank in the top five in time of possession, so that’ll be a key for this game. But Flacco is second in pass attempts and No. 14 in passing yards. The Cowboys will continue to run the clock, and given how inefficient Flacco has been, I’m not willing to bet on him here.

QB Carson Palmer at Vikings
Palmer threw just one touchdown and turned the ball over three times against the 49ers last week. Now he faces the fourth-toughest defense for quarterbacks in terms of fantasy production. While the Vikings have allowed two passing touchdowns in each of the past two games, their season total is only up to 10. There are better streaming options this week if you need them.

RB Terrance West at Cowboys
I guess we’re just sitting the whole Ravens offense. West isn’t struggling to get touches, but he isn’t doing much with them. Rookie Kenneth Dixon played well in Week 10, and he should continue to dominate the catches out of the backfield. The Cowboys give up 82.6 rush yards per game (No. 3 overall). They’ve only allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs.

RB Ryan Mathews at Seahawks
Everyone complained about benching Mathews against the Falcons, as he went off for the second-highest total yardage game of his career. Those same owners are probably going to complain about starting him this week. Mathews has not finished back-to-back games with more than 10 touches in all of 2016. Seattle gave up three touchdowns to Blount last week, but they were on the road facing one of the toughest offenses in the league. Mathews’ success seems unsustainable, especially considering the running back rotation Philadelphia implements.

*Another RB note, please do not start Ty Montgomery. That ship has sailed.

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Raiders
In reality, the hope here is to counter-jinx him. I’d love to completely wrong and watch him go off. But there’s no denying the fact that Hopkins has not produced for most of 2016. Obviously much (if not all) of that is tied to Brock Osweiler’s struggles, but we’re to the point where Nuk is a burden in your lineup. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, and he has just two games this season with 70-plus yards. Oakland’s secondary also looks improved as of late, holding players like Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, and Demaryius Thomas to under 60 yards.

WR Jarvis Landry at Rams
One touchdown. That’s all Landry has to show for 2016. He hasn’t scored since he faced the Browns in Week 3, which is also the last time he eclipsed the 100-yard mark. Jay Ajayi really became the focal point of the offense in Week 6. Since that game, Landry has averaged around five receptions for 63 yards per game. Like Hopkins, you know he could be a stud, but he’s not getting the job done.

TE Kyle Rudolph vs. Cardinals
Rudolph is back, right? Back-to-back games with a touchdown. That won’t be a three-peat, though. Arizona erases tight ends from the game plan. No tight end has scored against the Cardinals in 2016. Jimmy Graham fared the best against this defense with five receptions for 53 yards. Sorry, Kyle. You’re taking a seat again.

TE Cameron Brate at Chiefs
No tight end has eclipsed 50 yards against the Chiefs. Brate is in the midst of a breakout, scoring a touchdown in three consecutive games. This one is all about the matchup, though. Greg Olsen caught five passes for 39 yards against Kansas City in Week 10. No other tight end has more than three receptions facing this defense. Keep Brate around for future matchups.