NBA Reality Index: The Mavericks finally have to rebuild

The Dallas Mavericks are awful. This isn’t a total surprise. It’s just a year late.

Ahead of the 2015-16 season, Vegas sportsbooks put the over/under line on Dallas Mavericks’ wins at 36.5, essentially placing the team at No. 10 in the West. Here at SB Nation NBA, most of us thought the Mavericks’ long playoff streak was over, too. I predicted Dallas would finish No. 12 in the West, and the rest of the crew had them lower.

The Mavericks ultimately finished No. 6 in the conference at 42-40. (And Mavs fans were quite vociferous about that fact on social media.) We thought the jig was up for Dirk Nowitzki, Rick Carlisle and the crew. They had one more dance in them.

But now it’s all over for them.

The Mavericks are 2-11, the worst record in the entire league. They’ve lost six straight. They have half as many wins as the Philadelphia 76ers. Their averaging scoring margin is minus-7. They are ranked No. 30 in offense and are worse across the board on that end. The overall defense remains somewhat respectable because of solid turnover creation and rebounding, but Dallas has the third-worst shot defense in the league.

This season is very close to being called for the Mavericks. If you figure 41 wins will be needed for a shot at the No. 8 seed, Dallas would need to go 39-30 to get there.

Not a single thing about the Mavericks makes you think the team can go 39-30 the rest of the way. Dirk Nowitzki is 38, has played just three games and didn’t look right when he was out there. Father Time is undefeated. Deron Williams has missed half of Dallas’ games; he’s 32, and there’s no guarantee he has juice left after an injury-riddled five years. Andrew Bogut has been a huge minus on offense, even though he might be the best available passer any given night.

That’s the most striking thing about the Mavericks when you watch them: this team is so bad at creating for each other. Dallas is dead last in assists, and J.J. Barea — the Puerto Rican Nick Young — leads the team in assists per game. The offense is predicated on second-tier wing scorers creating shots for themselves. It’s a horribly anachronistic idea in 2016.

Harrison Barnes has been surprisingly hot for stretches, but his deep shooting has been soft and his overall efficiency is weak. He’s still just 24 and has only a few weeks as a featured scorer under his belt. Perhaps he can become more comfortable as a high-usage scorer over time. Perhaps.

Wesley Matthews also has been thrust into a role behind his capabilities. He was at his best in Portland was a wing stopper who feasted on open shots and open lanes created by the offensive magic of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. He was really the fourth option on that team behind Dame, LMA and Nicolas Batum. In Dallas, he’s usually No. 2 behind Barnes, who is not at all a playmaker (13 assists in 13 games) and doesn’t command double teams. Barnes’ limitations thus enhance Matthews’ limitations. The result? Wes is shooting 33 percent from the field.

The good news for the Mavericks is that they have all of their own first-round draft picks going forward. If Dallas finishes in the bottom of the standings, they can pick up a nice prospect and try again next year. Mark Cuban says the team won’t tank, but he doesn’t get to make that decision this year. Sometimes the tank comes for you.

The question is what to do about Dirk. Dallas gave him a two-year, $50 million deal in the summer that felt like a Kobesque retirement gift, but only $5 million of Nowitzki’s 2017-18 salary is guaranteed. If Dirk retires at season’s end, it’s easy for the Mavericks to transition and chase more young, expensive players like Barnes. If Dirk doesn’t want to retire just yet, the Mavericks face having to waive the franchise’s biggest all-time legend (which is not happening) or a truly Kobesque swan song season. Something tells me Dirk won’t go out jacking up 50 shots in his final game, though.

This is a strange new reality for the Mavericks, one that will require adjustment. We’ll see whether Cuban fights on the way down by trying to trade for instant impact players or if he accepts his team’s fate and positions for a quick rebuild.

Everyone has been excited about Kristaps Porzingis since he arrived in the States. But did anyone think he’d be this good this soon? He’s scoring 21 per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Anthony Davis, LeBron, Kevin Durant, and fellow unicorn Karl-Anthony Towns are the only other guys doing that this year. Zinger has two 30-point games in the past week, both against solid teams. He’s been the most important Knick since his debut. He might actually already be the best Knick, and that’s no knock on Carmelo Anthony.

The fit with Joakim Noah (or lack thereof) hasn’t been a real problem because Porzingis is as or more comfortable on the perimeter on offense and because the Knicks’ defense is a tire fire anyways.

Porzingis is at that stage where he is too good to be ruined by roster problems. Like Towns, DeMarcus Cousins and Davis, he will shine no matter what is burning around him. It’s not a matter of ruining him, it’s a matter of wasting him.

That’s why Carmelo remains a good fit: he’s actually good, and it’s important for young gods to have talented, veteran teammates. Cousins, Towns, Davis and Joel Embiid would snap up a co-star like Melo in a second. Derrick Rose is showing signs of life, and right now this is working for New York. If Noah, Courtney Lee, and Rose can ratchet up the defense a bit more, the Knicks could actually be (dare we say?) good. Thanks be to Porzingis.

No one was too sure of what to make of the Heat going into this season. Dwyane Wade left, Chris Bosh remained out, and Dion Waiters was the biggest acquisition. But Hassan Whiteside stuck around, as did Tyler Johnson, and Justise Winslow would have a year under his belt. Maybe that’d be enough to compete.

Nope.

Miami is 4-9. The defense has been really good as Winslow locks down the perimeter and Whiteside continues to shut down the restricted area. (He’s been excellent this season, and Miami should feel good about his massive contract.)

But the offense is just abysmal. Goran Dragic has in fact not re-blossomed in the absence of Wade — he’s still just Miami Goran Dragic, a mid-pack starting point guard. Waiters is leading the team in shot attempts per game (yikes, man) and he’s hitting 37 percent. Winslow features heavily in the offense and he’s shooting 33 percent. Josh Richardson has taken on a bigger role, yet he’s shooting 38 percent. You can’t survive all those bricks.

But it’s unlikely all those guys will keep shooting so poorly. If Miami could get healthy Erik Spoelstra might consider bringing Waiters off the bench (where he was fairly successful in Oklahoma City) to give Dragic a bit more rein on the offense. With Winslow and Whiteside, this ought to be a fast-break team. A Dragic-Richardson backcourt with Winslow, Whiteside and a slasher like Derrick Williams might provide a good balance despite immense shooting deficiencies. Compromises need to be made when you have two young elite defenders who can’t shoot.

Spoelstra is smart and will figure it out. As guys come back from injury, reliance on Waiters will lighten. Things will get better. And if Winslow ever learns how to shoot, that combination with Whiteside could be real fearsome in the East.