NFL panic index, Week 13: Packers and Steelers will somehow find their way in the playoffs

The NFL playoff picture is beginning to take shape, and several teams that entered the 2016 season with postseason hopes find themselves on the outside looking in with just a few weeks remaining to turn things around.

The Green Bay Packers are a lot like their AFC North counterpart, the Pittsburgh Steelers: a storied franchise with an obnoxious number of Lombardi Trophies and consistently great quarterback play. And somehow, no matter how slow they start the season, they wind up in the playoffs.

Yet if the season were to end today, the Packers and Steelers would face the unfamiliar feeling of sitting at home in early January. Luckily for both of them, they have among the easiest schedules remaining in their conference. And while it’s been a rocky road for both teams this season, they’ve each shown life lately.

The Steelers rebounded from a four-game slide and Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury to win two in a row. They’re tied with the Ravens, and need to keep pace with them — and win their rematch in December — to take the division crown.

Aaron Rodgers has been quietly playing at a high level all season, way better than the Packers deserved during their own four-game losing streak. Then in Philadelphia on Monday night, when Green Bay broke out of its slump, Rodgers was like his old MVP self, completing 77 percent of his passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. It was clear that, injuries be damned, the Packers could still go as far as Rodgers could carry them.

The Packers are still two games behind the Lions in the NFC North, but Detroit also has to look forward to road games against two of the top teams in the NFL this season, the Giants and the Cowboys, in back-to-back weeks no less. Right after that hellish trip, the Lions host the Packers in Week 17.

The last time these two rivals played in Detroit, the Lions were called for a phantom face mask on what should have been the final play of the game. Instead, the Packers got a second life, and Rodgers connected with last name twin Richard Rodgers on a game-winning Hail Mary.

Panic index: Better prepare for the rich getting richer. In the final week of the season, the Packers play the Lions and the Steelers play the Browns, which means two blue blood teams could clinch against arguably the two saddest franchises in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills, owners of the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, have been somewhat of a rollercoaster of a team this season. After starting 0-2 on the season and many calling for Rex Ryan’s job, they strung together four consecutive wins and were just one game out of the AFC East lead behind the Patriots.

Of course once they got close, they put together a three-game losing streak, with losses to the Dolphins, Patriots, and Seahawks. They’ve followed that up with wins over the Bengals and Jags, and at 6-5, they stand a game behind the AFC wild card.

Remaining games include the Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, and Jets. The schedule isn’t terrible, but the Bills only have one win against a team with a winning record this season, and that came against the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots. This could very well be a scenario where the Bills are in contention toward the end of the season, only to come up just short

Panic index: Don’t start partying like it’s 1999. Sure, the Bills should have at least two wins with games against the Browns and Jets, but that will probably offer nothing but false hope to their fans. We all know they likely won’t make the postseason. They’re the Bills.

The Buccaneers have been on a tear as of late. They’ve won three straight games, including back-to-back wins against the Chiefs and Seahawks, both of whom currently project as playoff teams. In all three wins, the Bucs’ defense has stifled their opponents, allowing just 17 points or fewer. They posted their best performance of the season yet last Sunday when the defense gave up just three points to the Seahawks (Seattle’s other two points came on a safety).

Offense had not been a particularly major concern given the connection between quarterback Jameis Winston and star wideout Mike Evans, who is one of two players in the league to have already surpassed the 1,000-receiving yard plateau this season. But the defense had struggled earlier this year, allowing 27 or more points in five of their first eight games.

Now the Bucs’ defense has come into its own, featuring a balanced attack that includes six players with two or more sacks this season. Cornerback Alterraun Verner also provided a feel-good moment for the team when he snagged an interception in Sunday’s game just two days after the death of his father.

The Bucs may have trouble sneaking into a wild card spot given the strength of both Washington and the Giants in the NFC East. They do have an opportunity to make it into the postseason, however, as they sit just one game behind the Falcons for first in the NFC South. The Falcons have an easier schedule, with three of their last five games coming against teams with records of 4-7 or worse. The Bucs only have one of those and also have to play the Cowboys on the road.

Barring a Falcons collapse — given Atlanta’s track record it’s definitely within the realm of possibility — the field may be just a little too crowded for Tampa Bay to join the playoff fun.

Panic index: The Bucs’ ship may not be ready for the postseason seas just yet, but at least there’s enough young talent onboard that next year could be different.

Last winter, questionable quarterbacking doomed Houston to a 30-0 blowout loss in a wild card showdown against Kansas City. While the Texans have made several changes in the intervening 11 months, all signs point to a similar result in January.

Houston is a 6-5 team with a scoring differential worse than the 3-7-1 Bengals. New hire Brock Osweiler’s 72.2 quarterback rating is the worst among league starters — a list that includes interception droid Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans’ running game is contributing 121 yards per game, but on a pedestrian 4.3 yards per carry. While a strong defensive effort has put this team in position to win games, too often the offense has disappeared when needed the most.

Case in point: in five losses, the Texans have scored just 11 points per game.

Indianapolis and Tennessee are nipping at the team’s heels in the South, but won’t catch Houston. After all, look at this season-ending strength of schedule:

at Green Bay (5-6)
at Indianapolis (5-6)
vs. Jacksonville (2-9)
vs. Cincinnati (3-7-1)
at Tennessee (6-6)

At .363, the Texans’ opponents have by far the worst winning percentage of any playoff hopeful in the AFC. The Titans will face five teams with an aggregate .522 winning percentage down the stretch. The Colts’ schedule is a bit easier, but still includes foes like Oakland and Minnesota.

Meanwhile, the toughest matchups on Houston’s slate are against two teams they’ve already beaten this fall — Indianapolis and Tennessee. That sets up the Texans for another AFC South title and a playoff run. Unless something drastically changes on offense, it’ll be another short one.

Panic index: The Texans can’t hope to turn around Osweiler’s season unless they find a beat-up pair of Peyton Manning’s old cleats, throw them around a telephone wire, and hope they get imbued with magic powers after getting hit by lightning.

The Arizona Cardinals finished the 2015 season with a 13-3 record to win the NFC West. They rolled over the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs, winning a 26-20 overtime thriller, then lost to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship.

Expectations were high for the Cardinals coming into 2016, but now they’re 4-6-1 and will almost certainly need to win out to finish with nine wins and have any chance of locking up a wild card bid.

Arizona’s passing offense leaves much to be desired, despite having the same personnel that helped the Cardinals finish second in the NFL in passing yards per game last season. The defense, according to head coach Bruce Arians, is plagued by “selfishness” and players trying to make their mark on the stat sheet instead of simply doing their jobs.

And the Cardinals’ schedule over the next five games is far from easy. While games against the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints should be winnable, Arizona still has Washington (6-4), Miami (7-4), and Seattle (7-3-1) on the schedule.

Right now, the Cardinals are lagging behind the Eagles, Packers, Saints, Vikings, and Buccaneers in the playoff standings. Winning out and turning things around to lock up a postseason bid is going to be a tall order for Arizona.

Panic index: Winning out will almost certainly be necessary, and ESPN thinks Arizona will win just two of its remaining games. That would put the Cardinals’ final record at 6-9-1, which is sorta nice, but not in the way that means they’re making the playoffs.