Colts still have a shot at the playoffs at 5-6

The Indianapolis Colts started November off with their first pair of back-to-back wins in 2016, but then Andrew Luck suffered a concussion and a 28-7 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thanksgiving followed. It was a setback for a team that finally looked like it had some semblance of momentum, but the loss wasn’t a nail in the coffin.

Thanks to the weak AFC South, the Colts are still very much in the postseason hunt with a 5-6 record.

Even Colts owner Jim Irsay took to Twitter on Wednesday night to tell fans not to give up hope:

OK Jim, yes, that 44-17 loss to the Jaguars in 2006 took the wind out of the Colts’ sails a bit, but the team dropped to 10-3. The lack of faith was in the Colts’ ability to win in the postseason with a shoddy run defense. In 2016, the faithlessness is in the team’s chances at winning enough games in December to overtake the Houston Texans for the AFC South lead.

Last year, it took only a 9-7 record for Houston to win the division, and it appears entirely possible that just getting over .500 could be all it takes in 2016, as well.

The Texans are in first at 6-5, but enter December after back-to-back losses and the Tennessee Titans start the month 6-6 with a Week 13 bye. The only team out of the mix are the 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Winning four of the last five games of the season would boost the Colts to 9-7 and that could be enough to take the crown, especially if Indianapolis wins a Week 14 home game against the Texans.

Colts coach Chuck Pagano says the key down the stretch will be playing “December football.”

Rushing more than an opponent is an indicative stat, but more because teams that are winning run and teams that are losing pass. Even with Scott Tolzien at quarterback on Thanksgiving, the Colts were forced to attempt 36 passes to try to comeback while Ben Roethlisberger attempted just 20 thanks to an early lead.

The Colts are No. 23 in the NFL with an average of 3.9 yards per carry, and No. 28 on defense with opponents averaging 4.6 yards. Frank Gore has topped 100 yards just once all season, the Colts’ only 100-yard rusher since 2012.

No, the real key for the Colts will be the play of Luck in the final five games of the season. In the team’s five wins in 2016, Luck has a passer rating of 100.1, but in his five losses under center, the rating dips to 88.4.

His play will be especially crucial down the stretch when the Colts face the Texans, Jaguars, and Minnesota Vikings. All three are top five in the NFL in pass defense, but have struggled offensively.

Luck gets the luxury of starting his run against the New York Jets, the NFL’s No. 22 pass defense, in Week 13.

If he can return from his concussion to look like the player who opened the season with 385 yards and four touchdowns against the Detroit Lions, the Colts might just have a path to the playoffs.