Lions and Giants are perfectly matched for a meaningful NFL game

When your last two employers are playing a meaningful December game, it only feels right to discuss the matchup. The first place Detroit Lions are visiting the New York Giants, fresh off a huge season sweep of their bitter rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams can clinch playoff berths, with help, this weekend. This is a game of monster importance.

Both teams, while running different offensive and defensive schemes, are extremely similar. Both sport 9-4 records and have been in the most games decided by seven points or less, the Lions with 12 and the Giants with 10. The Giants have won four games when scoring fewer than 20 points, and the Lions have won three games in the same situation, Nos. 1 and 2 in the NFL.

Since Week 7, the Giants and Lions are first and second in points allowed per game, at 16.1 for the GMen and 16.4 ppg for the Lions. The Lions are 29th in rushing, the Giants 31st and so on. This game will be close.

It’s surprising, to say the least, that the Giants offense has struggled this season. I played in that offense the past two seasons. We had continued to make strides and improve. This season the Giants, for whatever reason, have regressed on offense.

The Giants are 27th in total offense and haven’t thrown for more than 250 yards in the last six weeks. The run game isn’t much better, clocking in at 31st in the NFL.

However, the Giants have two trump cards, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. These guys can change a game faster than anyone in the NFL. Not since Jerry Rice have we seen a wide receiver like Odell take a short slant and break it to the house. His two most memorable game winning catch and runs were against Dallas and Baltimore.

Both of these were slant-flat combos. Odell is the outside WR and runs a slant. The inside receiver, or tight end and running back in these cases, runs a route to pull the inside defender away from the hole where Eli is throwing to Odell. The key to these game changing plays is that they both came against a 1-high coverage. This coverage allows for Odell to get cleaner release and hit that window. It allows Eli, who’s throwing the ball eighth quickest in the NFL according to PFF at 2.36 seconds, to take his drop and let it go. It keeps the offense in sync.

Here are those two plays.

The Detroit Lions are a 2-high based defensive scheme that relies on their front to create pressure on the quarterback. Their best pass rusher, Ziggy Ansah, has been beat up this season and has yet to record a sack. However, early in the season, other members of the defense were picking up the slack. They had 20 sacks through nine games, led by undrafted defensive end Kerry Hyder. This has dried up lately, with only two sacks in the last four games.

If the Lions can’t muster up a pass rush, it’s a huge advantage for the Giants. When Eli is allowed to sit in the pocket without pressure, his completion rate is 67 percent vs 50 percent when under duress.

Cover 2 has given the Giants trouble throughout the season because it makes it tougher to convert those slant-flat route concepts, and tougher, in general, to hit the outside receivers early in the down. The Giants admitted as much after some struggles early in the season.

“They take away your outside guys a lot,” Manning said. “It’s kind of two-man, tight ends, you’ve got to run the ball, if the safety’s high your inside route’s got to win. It just takes some time for things to develop. It takes away some of your quick passing game. You do have to hold it a bit to get it downfield. We had a few things to beat it, we made some plays, hit some good things, but we just didn’t make enough plays.”

As Eli mentioned above, the two ways to most easily defeat a Cover 2 defense are inside routes, run by Cruz, Shepard, their stable of tight ends or even moving Odell inside in certain formations.

I’ve found the best way to beat a Cover 2 defense is running the ball. With the safeties high and deep, you must run the ball in order to take advantage of the soft coverages drops and lack of unblocked low safeties. The Giants must establish the line of scrimmage in this game.

The Packers have a similar offense to the Giants and their game plan against the Lions from Week 4 included lots of fullback runs to take advantage of the softer coverage. The Packers ended the day with a big victory and the second most rushing yards on the season.

Green Bay’s offense also took advantage of Aaron Rodgers ability to escape the pocket and make late throws. This is something that hurt the Lions, but with Eli Manning, it’s something they won’t need to worry much about. Eli isn’t escaping the pocket to throw on the run and the Giants aren’t magically adding a fullback to the roster.

The Lions offense is best described as resourceful. They use everything and everyone at their deposal. Stafford fires the ball around the field. They find the holes in the defense, and take advantage with run after the catch. Golden Tate leads NFL wide receivers in yards after the catch. Jim Bob Cooter (the best name in the NFL and the Lions OC) gives Stafford free rein of the offense which plays into his strengths. He’s highly intelligent and has a cannon to complete tight throws.

The offensive line is young but scrappy, physical and plays through the whistle. Their young line might be even younger this week if starting center Travis Swanson misses his second straight week with a concussion. If he can’t go, rookie center Graham Glasgow will move from left guard inside to center. This could be trouble for the Lions. As I wrote earlier in the week, the Giants defense has thrived on inexperienced lines and quarterbacks. That shouldn’t be an issue with Stafford, but it can get confusing for a young center.

The Lions will continue to try throwing short and getting the ball out before the Giants pressure hits home. Stafford is fourth in completion percentage against pressure which will be vital this weekend.

If Stafford has to hold the ball and complete throws a tad later, he excels at that as well, completing 61.5 percent of passes after holding the ball from more than 2.6 seconds (per PFF). This week, he might have to hold onto it. The Giants have two of the top ten corners in burn percentage, meaning they get beat the least in man coverage, Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Lions receivers must win when they have one-on-one matchups.

The key for the Lions offense will be tight end Eric Ebron. The Giants at times have struggled covering the tight end all over the field. They need to be able to exploit the one weakness in the Giants defense, the linebackers.

I expect the Giants to continue to be stout against the run lead by the force inside, Snacks. Damon Harrison, aka Snacks, is their dominating nose tackle. He’s the best in the business at stopping the run and could take advantage of the Lions’ young center. I’d look for the Lions to wham Snacks or try cutting him early so he plays just a tad slower. Even though the Lions don’t have the best rushing totals, they do try establishing the line of scrimmage and will again this week.

Lastly, the Giants defense is excellent in the red zone, posting league-best totals in that area. For the Lions to score enough points to win the game, they must score touchdowns and not field goals in this part of the field.

Other factors in a game of two teams that are this similar are special teams and turnovers. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams unit, while the Giants sit at 19th. Likewise, in the turnover margin, the Lions are ninth and the Giants are tied at 23rd. Both of these are advantages to the Lions.

However, what’s not an advantage for the Lions is the weather on Sunday. This is only the third outdoor game for the Lions and first since September. The cold will be a factor, especially for Stafford and his banged up middle finger. Stafford will be playing with a modified glove to protect his finger. He most likely will take all snaps from the pistol or shotgun to help protect it too. With the weather being chilly it could take awhile for the finger to warm up, if it warms up at all.

I don’t know who wins the game on Sunday. I do know the game is evenly matched up and will be close. Hope y’all enjoy watching these two playoff bound teams battle it out on Sunday.