NFL panic index, Week 16: Steelers are ready to crush the Ravens’ playoff hopes

Entering Week 16, only four teams have sewn up a playoff spot: the Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, and Oakland Raiders. Of those four, only two — the Seahawks and Patriots — have clinched a division title.

While the Patriots still have their eyes on the home-field advantage prize, and the Seahawks are hoping for that first-round bye, the rest of the field is aiming for a division crown. And, as a bonus, sticking it to a rival.

Currently, there are four division races separated by only one game. Another, the AFC South battle between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, features two teams with identical records.

So, with just two weeks to go, which of these fan bases should feel confident — and which should start preparing for the worst?

For Pittsburgh, it’s simple: Beat your most-hated rival at home, win the AFC North. The Steelers have been one of the league’s hottest teams over the course of a five-game winning streak. While their resume still isn’t great, the team’s rebound from 4-5 has been a rally befitting the franchise’s history.

Baltimore is a little harder to figure out. The Ravens made a statement by pummeling the Dolphins in Week 13, but aside from a home win over a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger, their credentials are otherwise weak. Five of their eight wins have come against teams angling for top-10 picks in next year’s draft.

Now, they’ll have to head to a raucous Heinz Field and try to derail a healthy Steelers team. But the road trip could be a blessing in disguise: Baltimore is 5-3 in its last eight trips to Western PA.

On Sunday, the onus will be on the Ravens to stop one of the league’s elite offenses. Pittsburgh has scored more than 26 points per game since losing a thriller to the Cowboys back in mid-November. The Baltimore defense has been occasionally brilliant in that same stretch — it held Miami, Cleveland, and Cincinnati to 14 points or fewer — but has struggled against a pair of high-impact quarterbacks. Dak Prescott and Tom Brady combined for 707 yards and six touchdowns in big performances against the Ravens’ once-storied defense.

Roethlisberger is closer to Brady and Prescott than he is Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, and the smorgasbord of disappointment the Browns have employed this season. That’s bad news for Baltimore.

Panic index: Even if the Ravens are victorious Sunday, Pittsburgh’s Week 17 matchup against the Browns suggests Baltimore has to win out to make the playoffs. A road trip at the Bengals won’t be a cakewalk, especially after only beating them by five points earlier in the year. Ravens fans should be plenty worried about their postseason chances.

The Detroit Lions are sitting atop of the NFC North at 9-5, but the Green Bay Packers are only one game back at 8-6. Matthew Stafford is having a terrific season, and he is the catalyst for Detroit’s offense.

So far this season, Stafford has a habit of making huge plays in the fourth quarter. The veteran quarterback has eight comeback wins and is in the MVP conversation. But last week, the Lions fell to 9-5 after losing to the New York Giants. Stafford, who wore a glove on his throwing hand due to a dislocated finger, threw for 273 yards and an interception.

The Packers, led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, will not go away easily. They have won four games in a row, and Rodgers is playing like his old MVP self. Over Green Bay’s four-game win streak, its offense has scored 116 points.

Detroit’s next two games are against the 12-2 Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay. If the Lions lose to Dallas, and the Packers defeat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16, then Detroit and Green Bay will be tied at 9-6. That means Week 17 will be a win-or-go-home matchup between the Lions and Packers on New Year’s Day.

Panic index: Packers fans should be excited, and Detroit fans should be afraid. Green Bay can beat the Vikings because Minnesota’s offense looks horrible, and the Packers offense is lethal. Stafford has never played well while wearing a glove on his throwing hand, and he’s stuck with it for the rest of the season.

There may not be a more exciting race as we come towards the end of the season. Both the Texans and the Titans looked well on their way to a loss in Week 15.

First, the Texans found themselves down 13-5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have had one of the tougher seasons in the NFL this year sitting at 2-12, and at the bottom of the AFC near the Browns. Bill O’Brien had enough of Brock Osweiler, and decided it was time to go with Tom Savage, who then led the Texans to a comeback victory.

Then, the Titans also managed to pull out a surprising W. They already had the deck stacked against them on this Sunday. The team was playing at a frigid Arrowhead Stadium. It was the coldest game Marcus Mariota had played in during his career, and he was already cooling off after going on a tear from Weeks 5 through 13, where he completed over 67 percent of his passes and threw for 21 touchdowns against just three picks.

Mariota rallied the team back and, with a little help from Andy Reid’s timeout tactics, the Titans hit a game-winning field goal at the end.

The Titans and Texans play each other in Week 17 and if they both take care of business in Week 16, that game will be for all the marbles. With teams as unpredictable as these two, it would make for some entertaining football to end the regular season.

Panic index: Both teams have manageable games in Week 16, so if it comes down to the final week, the Titans might be sweating a little more. Sure, Houston is dealing with uncertainty at the quarterback position, but the team has been there many times before. Plus, the Texans are the ones with a perfect record against AFC South opponents. And if that holds up, all the Titans will get from an otherwise strong season is a middle-of-the-round draft pick.

For the first time in 14 years, the Raiders are in the playoffs. With a one-game lead in the AFC West, they just need a win or tie in Week 16, and a loss from the Chiefs, to take the division title.

The Raiders have a slight edge there: They are coming off a close road (sorta) win over the Chargers, and face a Colts team that keeps alternating wins and losses. The Colts whipped the Vikings last week, which probably means they’re due for a crushing defeat.

Yet there’s no counting out the Chiefs, even after they gave away the game to the Titans in Week 15. The Chiefs are 4-0 against the division this season — including a season sweep over the Raiders — and close out the season against the two other AFC West teams. Kansas City can still take the division if Oakland drops a game.

Panic index: Honestly, both these teams should be in an Alfred E. Neuman phase right now. The Chiefs haven’t locked down a playoff spot, but they’re ahead in the wild card race and would have to lose their final two games to even have a chance of missing out.

The Raiders have the best shot at winning the division, but even if they don’t, they’re out here reminding us of ... ugh, “How You Remind Me.” Still, the postseason drought is over!

The Atlanta Falcons are 9-5 and sitting on top of the NFC South for the moment, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right on Atlanta’s heels.

It’s been a phenomenal season for the Falcons offense. Matt Ryan is firmly entrenched in the MVP conversation, and Atlanta somehow continues to fire on all cylinders despite the fact that Julio Jones has been out for two weeks with a sprained toe.

The Buccaneers, though, proved they can hang with the class of the NFC in a close loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Tampa Bay trails the Falcons by just one game, but each team still has to face their NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints, over the final two weeks of the season.

The Falcons travel to Carolina, where they suffered a 38-0 beatdown last year. The Falcons got the best of the Panthers in Week 4 of the 2016 season, but the Panthers are rolling on a two-game winning streak and clinging to the slimmest of postseason hopes themselves.

Tampa Bay will have to face off against the Saints this week after narrowly beating New Orleans just two weeks ago. The Bucs are on the road, too, and visiting a notoriously loud and difficult place to play.

Atlanta is coming off a two-game stretch in which it outscored the Rams and 49ers 83-27. The Falcons are the only team in 2016 to score 40-plus points in back to back weeks, and they’ve done it twice so far this season. The first time the Falcons doubled up on 40-point games, they did so in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Panthers and Saints.

For both the Falcons and the Buccaneers, 2016 has been the best season in a few years. Atlanta finished .500 last season in Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach. In Dirk Koetter’s first season as head coach, the Buccaneers have already improved on last year’s 6-10 finish. But in a tight NFC race, one of these teams may miss out on the playoffs.

Panic index: One of these teams will win the division. The other team, considering the tight wild card race in the NFC, is likely to wind up very, very disappointed. The Falcons, despite their history of blowing it, have the better odds. After all, that high-flying offense gets to go up against the Saints defense one more time.