Place your bets! But first, you should read some helpful advice about Week 13’s NFL games. It’s not a huge week for underdogs.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 13: Giants and Lions and underdogs, oh my!
A closer look at this week’s NFL games with your money on our minds.
The Rams are the biggest underdogs, by 14 points against the Patriots, but considering that matchup, it’s not an attractive bet.
Detroit’s fourth-quarter magic this season makes the Lions a good underdog bet this week. The Saints are favored to win that one by 6.5 points. The Giants are another solid underdog bet this week against the Steelers.
Here’s a closer look at this week’s games. All odds are courtesy of OddsShark, and you can find more betting details on its fine site. We’ll update this post as the lines move. Also, be sure to keep an eye on this week’s injury report.
PATRIOTS (-13) over Rams
I know a spread like that makes it awfully tempting to take the underdog. Plus, the Rams’ recent record against the Seahawks would seem to suggest that they are at least capable of rising to the occasion from time to time. Don’t buy it.
Jeff Fisher probably should’ve spent the week planning for this game, but instead spent it alienating Rams legend Eric Dickerson. Fisher didn’t even know who the Patriots running backs were!
Another thing to consider is the recent record. Fisher’s been outscored 104-7 in his last two games coaching against Bill Belichick.
Still thinking about it? The Rams are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as underdogs of 14 points or more.
SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Panthers
It’s bad for the Panthers that they are still without all-world linebacker Luke Kuechly. There’s also a huge hole in the middle of their offense. Center Ryan Kalil is out and so is his backup, Gino Gradkowski. Plus, they’re playing in Seattle, where the Seahawks have a 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 home games in December.
Eagles (+1) over BENGALS
The Bengals don’t have A.J. Green or Gio Bernard. Tyler Eifert is an outstanding tight end, and Jeremy Hill is a good running back. That’s not enough to win many games.
49ers (-2.5) over BEARS
This might actually end up being the best game of the week. Seriously. Both teams are complete garbage, so they’re fairly evenly matched. But the Niners have Colin Kaepernick, who’s playing great football right now. The Bears have Matt Barkley.
Lions (+7) over SAINTS
The Saints are more entertaining these days when they have revenge to dole out on a visiting team. But there’s no vendetta to pursue against the Lions. I’m thinking more about the Lions’ fourth-quarter prowess that’s keeping them in every game they play. All seven of their wins so far have been comebacks. That’s going to be hard for the Saints defense to stop, and it’s more than enough for them to cover a 6.5-point spread. Also, Detroit is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games as road underdogs.
PACKERS (-6.5) over Texans
I know we’ve been freaking out about the Packers all season, but Aaron Rodgers really isn’t playing all that poorly. Plus, they lit it up in Philadelphia last week. Even Green Bay’s defense shouldn’t have any problems against Brock Osweiler.
If you really want to bet on this game, your best chance to make some money might be finding a prop bet for how many interceptions Osweiler is going to throw.
FALCONS (-6) over Chiefs
I’ll probably regret this one because the Chiefs have a knack for winning games they shouldn’t. But I just don’t think the Chiefs offense, and Alex Smith in particular, can keep pace with Atlanta.
Dolphins (+3.5) over RAVENS
The Ravens are going to wind up winning the AFC North by default — just watch. The Dolphins’ history against the Ravens is not promising. Over their last six meetings, the Ravens are 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread. But these Dolphins are a little different. They’re competent, thanks to the decision, FINALLY, to minimize Ryan Tannehill’s role in the offense, making him more of a game manager type. They’re also going to have Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil back on the offensive line this week.
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Broncos
WHY???? I’m just going with my gut on this one. The Broncos are 7-4 taking on a 2-9 team. But against the spread, the Jaguars are 6-5, not so far off Denver’s 7-4 record against the spread.
This one also happens to be the lowest over/under of the week at 39.5 points. Blake Bortles versus Paxton Lynch? Definitely take the under.
RAIDERS (-3) over Bills
There’s not much betting excitement on this one. Most of the action is on the Raiders to cover, and even more people are siding with the game to easily exceed the 49 point over/under. The Bills average more than 25 points per game, and the Raiders are averaging almost 28.
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Buccaneers
The Chargers are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games after a loss. They’re also a solid 7-4 against the spread this season.
Washington (+2.5) over CARDINALS
The Cardinals haven’t covered the spread in their last five games. I don’t see that changing this week. Washington’s a much better team, and they’re 8-2-1 straight up and 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 as underdogs.
Giants (+6) over STEELERS
The Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their six-game winning streak. They’re 3-1 against the spread in their last four games against the Steelers. This one’s in Pittsburgh, so you probably get a little better showing from the Steelers.
Colts (-2) over JETS
The Colts are going to win the AFC South. Why? Because the Texans are stuck with Osweiler and you can’t trust the Titans to step up with the division up for grabs. More importantly, there’s just sheer dumb luck.
See More:
