NFL panic index, Week 14: Falcons might blow their chance at the playoffs

The Atlanta Falcons are 7-5, and they have a tenuous hold on the top spot in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also sitting at 7-5, so the division is well within reach for the Bucs. The Falcons can’t afford any more missteps.

Atlanta’s fresh off of a wrenching one-point loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. It was one in which the Falcons ran 73 offensive plays, but the loss can be pinned on just two of them.

Ryan threw two interceptions to Chiefs safety Eric Berry, and Berry returned each of them for scores. The first, a pick-six, gave the Chiefs a 20-13 lead, and the second, at the end of the game, was a two-point conversion attempt Berry returned to give the Chiefs a 29-28 win.

It wasn’t the first time this season Matt Ryan has thrown interceptions to blow late-game leads for Atlanta. The Falcons took a lead into the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, but Ryan was picked off by Earl Thomas, and the Seahawks were able to win on a field goal.

The Falcons also blew late-game leads against the Chargers and Eagles, all thanks to Ryan interceptions. Against the Chiefs, the Falcons only had a fourth quarter lead momentarily, before Berry stymied the two-point conversion attempt.

Atlanta’s defense has been a weakness, especially relative to its offense, all season. The Falcons are ranked 29th in the league for points allowed per game, with 27.6, and even the top-scoring offense in the league can’t afford too many mistakes with a defense that porous.

To further complicate things for the Falcons, some key players are struggling with what may be serious injuries. Julio Jones has turf toe, a condition the team doesn’t see as a long-term concern, but it’s an injury that has the potential to be devastating for Atlanta’s offense.

Left tackle Jake Matthews has a knee sprain, and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu is dealing with a groin injury. None of this makes it easier for the Falcons to get through the rest of the schedule with enough wins to lock up the NFC South.

After such a strong start to the season, the Falcons truly may not even make the postseason.

Panic index: Things could be worse. Remember when the Falcons started the season 6-1 in 2015 and then hit a six-game skid, finishing 8-8? This isn’t quite that dire, but with Tampa Bay breathing down the Falcons’ necks, it sure isn’t good.

Both of these teams are a complete mess. Let’s start with the 49ers, who played one heck of a sloppy game in Chicago in the snow against the Bears in Week 13. Colin Kaepernick was benched after completing just one pass for 4 yards, and was sacked five times. The Bears, who have suffered a ton of injuries over the course of the season, handled them easily, 26-6.

The Jets, on the other hand, just had one of the worst performances you’ll ever see on Monday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck and Dwayne Allen connected three times for touchdowns in just the first half, and Luck didn’t even show up for the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets couldn’t move the ball on one of the league’s worst defenses, leaving Todd Bowles to play Bryce Petty in the second half — and for the rest of the season.

There could not be a colder pair of teams coming into a single game on Sunday.

Panic index: Marion, don’t look at it! If you need a football fix, the rest of the late afternoon slate — Falcons-Rams, Seahawks-Packers, and Saints-Bucs — is intriguing. And if you can hold off, the Sunday night game between the Cowboys and Giants is a fun headliner.

In recent years, the AFC North has been one of the strongest divisions in the NFL, regularly sending more than one team to the playoffs. This year, it’s fighting with the AFC South to see which division more deserves to do Cersei’s Walk of Shame at season’s end. And it can’t all be blamed on the winless Browns — just two weeks ago, no team in the AFC North was above .500.

Then Sunday happened, and the AFC North ended up with a perfect record in Week 13. Not so coincidentally, the Browns were on bye. Yet it wasn’t just about that. The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals all played some of their best football of the season, almost if a week without a Browns game meant the rest of the division wasn’t weighed down by their sadness.

Panic index: We doubt Browns disease can really infect others, but just in case, the entire league, not just the AFC North, better get vaccinated. Yes, you too, Jay Cutler.

After a 1-4 start, Miami rocketed into the AFC playoff picture thanks to the explosive emergence of Jay Ajayi and the competent quarterbacking of Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins peeled off six straight wins to usurp the AFC West’s stranglehold on the conference’s Wild Card spots and, for one fleeting week, was in position to end an eight-year playoff drought.

And then the Ravens pounded them into dust.

Baltimore sent Miami crashing back to the 1-4 depths where it started the season with a 38-6 home victory that exposed the Dolphins as fake Anastasias rather than postseason heirs. Tannehill turned in his worst performance of the season, a three-interception game where he needed 40 passes to gain 226 yards. The only other performance that compares is a two-pick, 191-yard day against Tennessee back in October — the final game of Miami’s 1-4 start.

While Tannehill’s performance was disappointing, the Ravens’ 38-point explosion looks like an inevitability in retrospect. Miami gave up 22 points or more in eight of its first 11 games, allowing incompetent, poorly quarterbacked teams like San Francisco, Cleveland, and the New York Jets some of their best performances of the season. This was a dam ready to burst at the first sign of distress.

A look at the Dolphins’ wins this season supports that. At .310, Miami has the worst strength of victory (win percentage for teams they’ve beaten) among qualified teams in the AFC. Only one team Tannehill and company has vanquished has a winning record — a Pittsburgh Steelers team frantically game planning around an injury Ben Roethlisberger suffered in the first half.

The Dolphins took care of business, beating the teams they were supposed to and making a run into playoff contention. The Ravens proved just how much of a mirage that 7-4 record was on Sunday.

Panic index: The sun will peak out again before the storm comes. Miami’s final four games: vs. 4-6-1 Arizona, at the 3-9 New York Jets, at 6-6 Buffalo, vs. 10-2 New England (who might not have anything to play for). Expect more empty wins to close out the season, followed by a Ravens-esque de-pantsing in the Wild Card round.

At 6-5-1, Washington is now third in the competitive NFC West division. Having lost their past two games by slim margins, Kirk Cousins and the offense should be feeling demoralized by now. But their performances tell us otherwise.

Cousins, in particular, has been prolific these past few weeks. Since Week 7, the Michigan State alum has thrown for 12 touchdowns and only been intercepted twice. In that time, Cousins has racked up 2,116 yards through the air, including 458 against the Bengals and 449 against Dallas.

Washington as a team, however, has been extremely unlucky in this recent stretch of games. Jay Gruden has one of the most potent offenses in the league, coming in at second in both total yardage and passing yards, but their defense fails to support them during crucial stretches and then somehow they lose the composure to grind out games.

Against the Bengals, Washington appeared to have the game won with 2:13 left in overtime, but Dustin Hopkins drove his 34-yard field goal attempt wide left and the game ended in a tie. On Thanksgiving Day, defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s defense was torn to shreds by Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Washington’s offense was keeping up with Dallas for the majority of the game, but games are won on both sides of the ball and it was a matter of time until the Cowboys pulled away.

If you needed any more proof whether this is a recurring theme, last week against the Cardinals, the same thing happened. Carson Palmer’s two touchdowns inspired a late rally from Arizona and Washington crumbled. For most of the game, the offense played well only to be let down by their defense in the end.

Expect the offense to keep playing well. Cousins is playing out of his skin right now, and there hasn’t been any indication that that’s about to change. Unfortunately, unless the defense starts helping them close out games, Washington looks like it will fall out of playoff contention within the next week or two.

Washington’s final four games are against winnable opposition: at the 5-7 Eagles, vs. 4-8 Carolina, at the 3-9 Bears, and vs. 8-4 Giants. The rest of the season looks relatively easy, except for that final game against New York.

Panic index: DC has bigger things to worry about — I mean, did you hear about how much money Bryce Harper just asked for? Washington can win out but that also may not mean much, as its playoff hopes are bound by the New York Giants’ and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s fortunes. If the Giants end up dropping a couple games, that final matchup looks very enticing.