Seahawks have every advantage over the Packers except home field

With four weeks left in the NFL season, teams are making their final push for playoff spots. The intensity of games that matter pick up tremendously.

When I was a rookie, my offensive line coach told us there are four game speeds in the NFL and each one is exponentially faster and more violent: Preseason, the first few weeks of the season, the playoff push, and the playoffs. At that point, he hadn’t been to a Super Bowl, but I’d assume that’s the fifth speed. He was spot on. It’s human nature to play with a greater sense of urgency when something is at stake.

There are plenty of marquee games this weekend, and I’m going to focus on Seattle at Green Bay. The Packers are fighting to keep their 2016 playoff hopes alive. They started fast, then lost four straight, and have now won two in a row. The Seahawks should win their division, but they are in a battle with the Lions for that No. 2 playoff seed and a bye week.

The Seahawks have always been trouble for the Packers and this game Sunday will be no different. The Packers lost to the Seahawks in 2012, and twice in the 2014, one of those being the NFC Championship game in overtime when the Packers were leading 19-7 in the fourth quarter and Seattle came back at home. The Packers finally beat the Seahawks early last season, 27-17, in Lambeau.

The Packers offense is the same offense I played in the last two seasons with the Giants. It’s a timing offense that relies on the wide receivers to win matchups. It doesn’t rely on a variety of formations, motions, and concepts to create openings. It’s extremely efficient when you have multiple guys who can win their matchups and the quarterback is on time with his throws. The offense uses short passes as an extension of the running game. And for all the grief Aaron Rodgers has gotten at times, his numbers are right on par for his career. He’s completing close to his career percentage and thrown 29 touchdowns to seven interceptions.

When you have an offense that’s based on the success of individual receivers winning routes, playing against physical, in-your-face defensive backs can be tough. This is where Seattle has an advantage. The Legion of Boom, even without Earl Thomas, will create issues for Green Bay. They should disrupt the timing of the routes and force Rodgers to look at his second and third reads.

For the most part, the Packers offensive line has been excellent in pass pro. However they have a weak spot at right guard without T.J. Lang and Seattle can expose this. Replacing Lang has been rookie tackle Jason Spriggs. While talented, he’s not a guard, and he will be up against Michael Bennett, one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the NFL.

What makes Bennett so great is his use of power and explosiveness, plus quickness. He can beat you in a multitude of ways. He’s the engine for this defensive front seven. In the 2012 and first 2014 meeting, the Seahawks sacked Rodgers 11 total times. Getting pressure in his face will be a key for Seattle to throw off the timing of the Packers offense.

When Green Bay has had success against Seattle’s excellent defense, they have done so by running the ball well. In the NFC championship game and the win last season, they rushed for 135 and 127 yards, respectively. Running the ball isn’t the Packers’ strong suit. They are missing multiple running backs and relying on a converted receiver and a Seahawks castoff to handle the workload. Green Bay is averaging just 99.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the NFL.

I’ve always found against a dominate defense, running the ball well sets the tone that you’re ready for the physicality of the game. It also opens up the play action pass. Seattle is allowing a league low 16 points per game. When you’re able to pick up chunks of offense against a defense that is built to disallow big plays, it’s a backbreaker.

One last factor in this matchup: Kam Chancellor. He’s the difference maker for the Seahawks defense. Kam was injured for the Packers’ win last season, and the Seahawks defense was different without him. He can do it all. He’s a safety who is a linebacker. He plays down in the box, and sometimes fits in the B gap for the run. He’s also agile enough to cover a tight end or a running back. His physicality sets the tone in the run game. There have been plenty of times where lineman have pulled to block Kam and Kam has trucked them. He’s a game wrecker.

The Seahawks offense has evolved over the span of Russell Wilson’s career. When he was younger, the offense relied on a heavy dose of an outstanding rushing attack led by Beast Mode and the offensive line. Since Marshawn Lynch retired, the run game hasn’t been the same. The offensive line has gotten younger and worse. The Seahawks spend the least amount of money in the NFL on their offensive line. This has forced Wilson to become the focal point of the offense. He’s made that transition look effortless, even with a knee injury he had to play through this season.

The Seahawks offensive line has been trying to find the right combo also season. It may have finally found it. The last three weeks, the offense has rushed for a total of 519 yards. Part of that rushing resurrection has been due to Wilson’s legs. Through the first nine games he only rushed for 60 yards. The last three games, Wilson has rushed for 128 yards. That leads me to think his knee is feeling better.

The Seahawks’ rushing attack opens up the play action pass. Wilson is completing 75 percent of his play action downfield passes. This will be trouble for a young Packers secondary that has struggled this season. The Packers overall team defense numbers are OK — however, they are allowing the second-most net yards per pass attempt in the league. This takes into account the number of sacks a defense gets, and the Packers just lost their best edge rusher, Nick Perry, to injury. Advantage: Seahawks.

There are two more factors to consider about this game: Turnover margin and home field.

Seattle is plus-six and the Packers are minus-five in turnover margin. This is vital for the Packers in this game. They must keep that number in the positive. And defenses feed off turnovers. Nothing frustrates a defense more than grinding out drives without turning it over.

Seattle traditionally plays worse away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks enjoy an amazing home-field advantage playing on turf. Teams like that are often are a step slower on the road on grass. Seattle has lost three games and tied once on the road this season, with three of those games being offensive clunkers.

Seattle has almost every advantage in this game, but they can be wildly inconsistent on the road. The Packers are fighting for their 2016 football lives. Look for Green Bay to start fast to force the tempo of the game in their favor. In the end, I think Seattle takes this game, in a close one.