The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will face off in Super Bowl 50, and for the third year in a row it's a clash of the No. 1 seeds from each conference.
2016 Super Bowl: Don’t underestimate the importance of the turnover battle
Whichever team takes better care of the ball will likely walk away as champs.
The Panthers rolled into the postseason as the top-scoring offense in the league and didn't ease off the gas. Led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, they averaged 40 points in their two playoff games after putting up 31.2 points per game during the regular season. Ron Rivera's team is no slouch on defense, either.
Although the Broncos can field a strong offense when Peyton Manning is on his game, they are undoubtedly a defensive team. Their defense was a juggernaut all season and ranked in the top 10 in every major category. But they ramped it up even more in the playoffs. The formidable Denver defensive front harassed New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in the AFC Championship, hitting him a whopping 23 times.
But this Super Bowl matchup will be so much more than a top defense against top offense, or a great defense going up against a potentially strong offense. There are numerous storylines at play, but one of the biggest, and one that has been historically significant in the Super Bowl is the turnover battle.
Teams that win the turnover battle are 36-4 in the Super Bowl. The Panthers and Broncos were at opposite ends of that spectrum in the regular season, but both teams have taken care of the ball during the playoffs.
The Panthers feast on turnovers
During the regular season, the Panthers were the NFL's best team in the turnover category -- and it wasn't even close. They did a masterful job of tilting the scales in their favor, with a league-leading 39 takeaways that they turned into 148 points. Bolstered by the sharp play of Newton, who threw a career-low 10 picks, they finished with a turnover differential of plus-20. That placed Carolina well ahead of the team in second place, the Kansas City Chiefs with plus-14.
The Panthers have been even better in the playoffs, forcing nine takeaways in just two games and coughing up the ball only once. In the NFC Championship, they annihilated Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals with four interceptions and three recovered fumbles.
Meanwhile, Denver ranked an unimpressive 19th in the league with a minus-4 turnover differential during the regular season. It would have been a lot worse if its defense didn’t excel at taking the ball away, though. The Broncos came in at No. 7 in the league with 27 takeaways, but they were among the worst teams in the league with 31 giveaways.
A lot of those giveaways came in Manning’s first stint as a starter. In nine games, he threw 17 interceptions and was benched after a four-pick game against the Chiefs. Manning sat out the following six games with a foot injury, and since his return, he’s cleaned up his play.
Manning can't be blamed for all of the team's turnovers, either. C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders lost six fumbles altogether, while backup quarterback Brock Osweiler threw four interceptions during the regular season.
Still, the Broncos are 8-0 when winning the turnover battle. During the playoffs, they didn’t force many turnovers, but more importantly, the Broncos weren’t careless with the football. In two postseason games, they had a plus-2 turnover differential with three takeaways and only one giveaway.
They field an aggressive defense that knows how to create turnovers and tilt the field position battle in their favor, but when the offense can’t keep the ball, things unravel. And that could spell danger against the most opportunistic team this season.
The Broncos’ best bet is for Manning to be a game manager
Manning is a future Hall of Famer and will go down in NFL history as one of the most prolific passers in the game’s history. This is the same quarterback who threw for a career best 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions only two years ago.
But he’s not that player anymore and the Broncos shouldn’t expect him to be.
The 39-year-old veteran was intercepted on 5.1 percent of his passes in the regular season, and set his worst interception total since 2010. And that’s while playing in just 10 games.
Manning has the intelligence to play a short, safe game. Manipulating the defense is a skill that he’s not lost in his old age, but he just can’t float ducks out there for Rivera’s defense to take advantage of, either. If Gary Kubiak and the Broncos can get Manning out there running an efficient, safe game-manager style game, and their nasty defense can cause the Panthers to make mistakes, the Broncos can win the turnover battle.
And whichever team wins that battle will probably be holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the night.
* * *
Super Bowl 50: The best thing about the big game is the Patriots aren’t in it
See More:
