6 storylines to follow during the 1st round of the 2016 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is a fascinating confluence of college and pro football. College fans will watch their favorite players go to NFL teams they hate. NFL fans will welcome new players who they anxiously hope won’t turn into draft busts. It’s a weird mixture of life, hype and gambling on humans with ramapant rumors and conjecture mixed in. It’s the oddest event in sports.

We’ve covered the draft rumors, watched all the workouts and conducted the mock drafts (so, so many mock drafts). With the first round starting a 8 p.m. ET, here are the key storylines to follow:

Jared Goff of Cal and Carson Wentz of North Dakota State will be the first two picks tonight. How many more quarterbacks will go in the first round? The thought is that Paxton Lynch of Memphis is a lock, but some late doubt developed due to the system he played in with the Tigers. Connor Cook, the low ceiling/high floor Michigan State quarterback, is in play for the first round as well. It won’t be a shock if all four go in the first round. It won’t be a shock if only two go in the first round. It will be a shock if Christian Hackenberg of Penn State does go in the first round.

There are also some potential surprise teams who could be on quarterbacks. We know about the Rams, Eagles, Browns, Jets and Broncos needing a quarterback in this draft. Don’t discount the Saints or Bills. If they have a high grade on Lynch or Cook, they could pounce.

We’ve already seen the top two picks in the draft get dealt. It’s not going to stop there in the first round. You can theorize a number of possible trades, even in the top 10. For instance, if defensive back Jalen Ramsey and defensive end Joey Bosa are gone when the Jaguars pick -- albeit an unlikely scenario -- Jacksonville could move down. There could be teams trading up to get a quarterback like Lynch or Cook. Moves could be made on a strong group of defensive tackles.

We also know teams like to trade down solely to accumulate more picks. The Cleveland Browns at No. 8 are in a prime position to trade down. A team like the Dolphins might want to come up for running back Ezekiel Elliott, or the Tennessee Titans at No. 15 may covet an offensive tackle. Keep an eye on Atlanta. No team has fewer picks than the Falcons with five. They could be active in moving down at some point to try and acquire more picks. Washington as well. General manager Scot McCloughan is on record saying he wants to have 12 picks by the end of the draft, and he’s currently sitting on eight.

Had linebackers Myles Jack of UCLA and Jaylon Smith of Notre Dame not both suffered significant knee injuries last season, who knows how high they would’ve gone in the draft. Now we don’t know how far they’re going to fall.

Jack is still expected to be a first-round pick, but he’s no longer the top-10 lock many thought. Jack is recovering fine from a torn meniscus, but there are questions about the long-term health of his knee. There are more immediate concerns about Smith, who is expected to miss the 2016 season. Smith tore his ACL and LCL in the Fiesta Bowl, and that could push him into the third round.

It’s easy to look at the first round and see defensive tackle, offensive tackle, cornerback and wide receivers as strengths early. The order in which they’re slotted is the unknown. For instance, Laremy Tunsil has been all over the place. A month ago, he was the first overall pick in the draft. Now there are questions of whether Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame goes ahead of him. Some even may prefer Michigan State’s Jack Conklin. After those three and Ohio State’s Taylor Decker, you could pick from a number offensive tackles as the fifth one gone. At cornerback, Vernon Hargreaves of Florida could be the second corner gone after Jalen Ramsey, or he could fall behind Eli Apple of Ohio State and William Jackson of Houston.

The defensive tackle class -- the best unit in the draft -- is a random hodgepodge. They’ll get picked based somewhat on scheme fit, but you could pick from Sheldon Rankins, A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed as being the first one picked. The wide receivers are all over the place. Basically, know the names but don’t be shocked about the order they’re picked in.

As the draft has approached, there have been about 40 names associated with the first round. But almost every year a surprise name slips into the first round. Last year, Damarious Randall was a late riser into the first round. In 2014, it was Marcus Smith, taken by the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 24.

Who could be the surprise first-rounder this year? Danny Kelly identified 29 potential surprises. Here are a few to keep in mind: Miami cornerback Artie Burns, Florida safety Keanu Neal and West Virginia safety Karl Joseph, though the latter may not come as a complete surprise.

Ohio State has an outside chance at breaking Miami’s record of six players taken in the first round. Eli Apple, Joey Bosa, Taylor Decker, Ezekiel Elliott and Darron Lee are expected first-round locks. Safety Vonn Bell and wide receiver Michael Thomas could also be in play in the first 31 picks tonight. Ohio State could also push to tie its own record for most players taken in a single draft. That number is 14, and the Buckeyes will get close.

After Ohio State, Alabama could have the most picks this year. One out of the ordinary team that could get multiple picks this year is Southern Utah, with safety Miles Killebrew, pass rusher James Cowser and cornerback LeShaun Sims. That’s right, the Thunderbirds could have more players picked than Texas.