For most of his fights in the last seven years, Manny Pacquiao has been a big favorite; many times, an overwhelming favorite. Fights were clearly seen as being in his favor simply because he was so good, and so far ahead of the pack -- or at least the pack that he was fighting.
Pacquiao vs. Bradley 3 odds: Narrowing lines leave Pacquiao just a slight favorite
Manny Pacquiao has proven himself better than Timothy Bradley before, so why have the odds tightened as their third fight has drawn closer?
But it’s 2016 now. Manny Pacquiao is 37 years old. He lost his last fight. He’s 3-3 in his last six, even if one of those losses (to the man he faces Saturday, in fact) was so controversial and so widely considered a robbery that few really count it against him. Pacquiao also hasn’t fought in 11 months, and he’s coming off of shoulder surgery. And -- and! -- he’s seen as having one foot out the door, which for a boxer can be a massive difference-maker.
Pacquiao (57-6-2, 38 KO) has said this will be his last fight. Opinions vary, even within his own camp, even with his trainer, Freddie Roach, who has worked with Pacquiao for 15 years and knows him as well as anyone. With boxers, there is always the chance that no matter what they say, they’ll be back again, sooner than later. There’s a reason so few believe that Floyd Mayweather won’t fight for a 50th time eventually, despite his announced retirement after his win over Andre Berto last September. (It probably doesn’t help that Mayweather has “retired” before.)
When you add all that up, though, it’s pretty easy to see why an aging, possibly retiring Manny Pacquiao is but a slim favorite over Timothy Bradley (33-1-1, 13 KO), the 32-year-old fighter he’s fought twice already. Most believe he’s already convincingly defeated Bradley on those two occasions, even if one was, officially, a loss.
The betting lines opened with Pacquiao about a 3-to-1 (-300) favorite, and Bradley at around +250. All these weeks later, on the eve of the fight, Pacquiao is still the favorite, but the odds have narrowed to the point of it being as close to a toss-up matchup as boxing really creates in these “big fight” main events anymore.
According to OddsShark.com, the widest line on Pacquiao now is -220, with the majority around -180 or -190. Bradley, meanwhile, has seen his odds move to lines between +155 and +180. Considering the matchup, which we’ve seen twice and wasn’t, in most minds, close either time, it’s a pretty interesting shift. There would appear to be a lot of belief that time has passed Manny Pacquiao by to a great degree, and that the one foot that may be out the door might give Timothy Bradley the opening he wants, and perhaps needs, to score the elusive “decisive” win over his rival.
Still, until it’s over and done with, Pacquiao remains the favorite for a reason. This is a fighter most believe he’s beaten two times, and clearly so. Can a new trainer for Timothy Bradley make that much difference? Is Pacquiao as declined as the naysayers believe? We’ll see Saturday, but there’s been a lot of movement in Bradley’s favor since the opening lines.
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