Canelo vs. Khan odds: Alvarez a strong favorite, as expected

When Canelo Alvarez vs. Amir Khan was announced, there were a lot of eyebrows raised around the boxing and sports world. Some have called it a physical mismatch. Others feel there’s potential for an interesting fight. Oddsmakers opened with Alvarez as the favorite, and since then, the lines have only widened against Khan.

Canelo (46-1-1, 32 KO) is the natural bigger and more powerful fighter. He’s been fighting at junior middleweight (154 pounds) or “Caneloweight” (155 pounds, which is the limit for this fight) since 2011, and considering he’s only 25 years old, this is really his natural weight, what he has settled in at as a full-grown man. He did make welterweight earlier in his career, but he was a teenager then -- the last time he made that weight, in March 2010, he was four months shy of his 20th birthday.

Khan, on the other hand, is a 29-year-old fighter, a young veteran who started his pro career as a lightweight at 135 pounds, got knocked out, moved up to 140 two fights later, stuck there a while, got knocked out, and moved up to 147 two fights later. He’s only had three fights as a full-blown welterweight, and the results have been good if not overly inspiring.

The fight is being sold, somewhat dubiously, on Canelo having “unparalleled power,” which is nonsense, and Khan having “unsurpassed speed,” which may also be nonsense, but is probably less so than the Canelo power claim, at least. In reality, Alvarez is a good boxer-puncher. Khan does have very fast hands, but the idea that he’s the superior boxer may not actually be true.

When the fight was announced, Canelo was around a -300 favorite. As of Saturday morning, the lines are between -500 and -600, according to oddsshark.com. Khan, who started around +240, is now available at +350 to +450. So if you’re a Khan believer, there’s probably not been a better time than fight day to plunk down some cash on the upset.

The undercard has one fight seen as a likely blowout, even if a probable entertaining action fight, and two prospect versus veteran matchups that are seen as near pick’em matches, and should be. Former middleweight titleholder David Lemieux (34-3, 31 KO) is a massive favorite against Glen Tapia (23-2, 15 KO), who is moving up from junior middleweight. Tapia has lost twice by stoppage to James Kirkland and Michel Soro, the Soro bout his most recent outing. Lemieux, a powerful puncher, opened around -2300, but that has fallen a bit to lines between -950 and -1600. Tapia is listed between +650 and +850.

The other two fights are seen as being much more competitive matchups. Welterweight prospect Frankie Gomez (20-0, 13 KO) is favored to beat tricky veteran Mauricio Herrera (22-5, 7 KO), with odds shifting toward Gomez emerging as winner since opening around -190. He’s now at -260 to -310. Herrera has gone from +150 to around +250. Those odds may reflect the fact that Herrera is known for getting the short end of controversial decisions, even when he fights well.

In the pay-per-view opener, middleweight prospect Patrick Teixeira (26-0, 22 KO) of Brazil will face hard-punching American veteran Curtis Stevens (27-5, 20 KO), who has one of the most powerful left hooks in the sport. Even if he is a limited fighter, Stevens is dangerous. The lines haven’t moved a ton on this one. Teixeira, the “house fighter” since he’s a young prospect promoted by Golden Boy, opened about -190, and is now at around -172. Stevens, who hasn’t had an official boxing fight since 2014 (but has fought in BKB since then), opened at +150 and has stayed right around that area.