There are few jobs in the country with less security than an NFL head coach. Only Bill Belichick, Marvin Lewis, Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton began their tenures more than a decade ago, and six new coaches will start theirs in 2016.
3 different reasons NFL coaches could be on the hot seat in 2016
Marvin Lewis, Gus Bradley and Mike Mularkey all have something to prove in 2016, or it could be the end of the road.
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Even Tom Coughlin, who compiled a 170-150 record and two Super Bowl victories in 20 seasons, was shown the door by the New York Giants after a mediocre 2015 season.
"What have you done for me lately?" is a prevalent theme in any sport, but a few NFL teams have been exceedingly patient through losses. In the case of young rosters like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, owners have leaned toward continuity and avoided changes for their burgeoning quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't follow that philosophy, though. Despite rookie Jameis Winston leading the team to a 6-10 record in his first season -- a four-game improvement from the Bucs' 2-14 finish the year before -- Lovie Smith was fired against the wishes of Buccaneers players.
It’s hard to know who’s in jeopardy of losing their job during or after the 2016 season, but there are some tell-tale signs that could mean the end is near for a few coaches if their fortunes don’t change soon.
Specifically, there are three ways that owners are usually convinced that it’s time to cut ties with a head coach.
1) Blow 2nd and 3rd chances
Mike Mularkey became the 13th coach in the Super Bowl era to ever have three different head coaching jobs (not counting interim titles) when the Tennessee Titans officially announced hired him in January. Unlike the 12 coaches before him, Mularkey’s record doesn’t reflect someone who would typically be pegged for a second chance, let alone a third:
| Coach | Teams | Record |
| Marty Schottenheimer | CLE, KC, WAS, SD | 200-126-1 |
| Dan Reeves | DEN, NYG, ATL | 190-165-2 |
| Chuck Knox | RAM, BUF, SEA, RAM | 186-147-1 |
| Bill Parcells | NYG, NE, NYJ, DAL | 172-130-1 (2 SB wins) |
| Mike Shanahan | RAI, DEN, WAS | 170-138 (2 SB wins) |
| John Fox | CAR, DEN, CHI | 125-99 |
| Dick Vermeil | PHI, STL, KC | 120-109 (1 SB win) |
| Norv Turner | WAS, OAK, SD | 114-122-1 |
| Pete Carroll | NYJ, NE, SEA | 93-67 (1 SB win) |
| Jack Pardee | CHI, WAS, HOU | 87-77 |
| Wade Phillips | DEN, BUF, DAL | 82-64 |
| Forrest Gregg | CLE, CIN, GB | 75-85-1 |
| Mike Mularkey | BUF, JAX, TEN | 18-39 |
Mularkey led the Titans to a 2-7 record as interim head coach after taking over for Ken Whisenhunt, who was fired in November. So after about half of a season on the job and two previous unsuccessful stints as an NFL head coach, Mularkey’s leash is likely much shorter than most.
Chip Kelly is walking into a similar situation with the San Francisco 49ers after the Philadelphia Eagles collapsed under his leadership in 2015. His 26-21 record with the Eagles isn't one that would typically warrant less patience at his next stop, but the team took significant steps backward after two straight 10-win seasons, and Kelly has shouldered most of the blame for that.
A decade ago, Jim L. Mora received similar blame for the collapse of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons went 11-5 with Michael Vick under center in Mora’s first season that ended with a trip to the NFC Championship. But a disappointing 7-9 season two years later, coupled with questionable comments from Mora about how the University of Washington coaching position was his “dream job,” led to his firing.
A few years later, Mora was given another head coaching chance by the Seattle Seahawks, but there was no margin for error and he was fired after only one 5-11 season.
Rex Ryan and Jim Caldwell are two other coaches who were canned from their first head coaching jobs and are under pressure in 2016 to keep their second jobs.
2) Consistently lose
Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule, 126 head coaching tenures have survived the first three seasons to reach a fourth. In 2015, Bruce Arians and Andy Reid each crossed that mark easily by earning playoff bids with the Arizona Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively. But for Mike McCoy (San Diego Chargers) and Gus Bradley (Jacksonville Jaguars), a fourth year came despite poor records in their third years on the job.
Bradley’s 12-36 career record is the second-worst of all time for any coach through his first three seasons since the schedule switched to 16 games. And most of the others with similar starts didn’t last much longer:
| Coach | Team | First three seasons | Full tenure record | Years |
| David Shula | Bengals | 11-37 (.229) | 19-52 (.268) | 1992-1996 |
| Gus Bradley | Jaguars | 12-36 (.250) | --- | 2013-current |
| Joe Bugel | Cardinals | 13-35 (.271) | 20-44 (.313) | 1990-1993 |
| Bruce Coslet | Bengals | 14-34 (.292) | 21-39 (.350) | 1996-2000 |
| Ray Perkins | Buccaneers | 14-33 (.298) | 19-41 (.317) | 1987-1990 |
| Dan Henning | Falcons | 15-33 (.313) | 22-41-1 (.352) | 1983-1986 |
| Mike Nolan | 49ers | 16-32 (.333) | 18-37 (.327) | 2005-2008 |
| Dom Capers | Texans | 16-32 (.333) | 18-46 (.281) | 2002-2005 |
| Sam Wyche | Buccaneers | 16-32 (.333) | 23-41 (.359) | 1992-1995 |
| Darryl Rogers | Lions | 16-31 (.340) | 18-40 (.310) | 1985-1988 |
The reality for most of these coaches is that the teams just weren’t good. Severe talent deficiencies on each roster meant their replacements didn’t magically turn things around either.
Just look at the Cincinnati Bengals before Lewis was hired in 2002. David Shula was replaced with Bruce Coslet, and Coslet was supplanted by Dick LeBeau, who was fired by the Bengals after winning just 12 of his 45 games in Cincinnati.
Even when soon-to-be Hall of Famer Tony Dungy took over for Wyche in Tampa, he plodded through a 6-10 season before turning the Buccaneers into a winner.
When Bradley was hired by the Jaguars, there was an acknowledgment that the lack of talent meant the team was going to have to drudge through some rough years. Some called it a "three-year plan," but most called it a four-year plan. The 2016 season will be year four. On a podcast with Peter Schrager of FOX Sports, Bradley called it a five-year plan, but another three- or four-win season isn't going to cut it for him. It's hard imagine that Jaguars owner Shad Khan would be OK with another season at the bottom of the NFL, especially after an exciting offseason of defensive acquisitions.
3) Get stuck in neutral
In the NFL, there's a small window to succeed before injuries, age and free agency slowly rip a winning team apart. On rare occasion, a team like the New England Patriots will defy the odds and stay at the top of the league for more than a decade, but in most cases, Super Bowl contenders are quickly recycled.
Squandering chances in the playoffs can be difficult to stomach. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Lewis is the all-time leader at it.
There are 30 coaches in NFL history who have been to the playoffs seven or more times and Lewis is the only one of those without a single postseason victory. George Allen won just two games in his seven trips to the postseason and Marty Schottenheimer won just five in his 13 trips. But both at least found the win column.
For Schottenheimer, it wasn't enough. He was fired by the San Diego Chargers despite a 14-2 record in 2006 and it's hard not to wonder if Lewis could be facing the same fate soon.
The Bengals have five consecutive winning seasons, but are now being pruned in free agency and are five years removed from having a draft pick in the top half of the first round. Cincinnati is still a good bet to make the playoffs in 2016, but things aren’t going to get any easier for Lewis.
It's not entirely his fault that Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones melted down in the final minutes of a playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But seven postseason losses would seem to indicate the problem runs deeper.
* * *
Ultimately, it’s difficult to objectively evaluate coaching. It’s even possible it doesn’t matter much.
If the best team in the NFL had the worst coach, would he drag the team down to the point that it’s unable to make the postseason? And would the best coach in the NFL be able to take the worst team and create a winner?
Even Belichick, the all-time leader in playoff victories, went through four losing seasons in his five years with the Cleveland Browns before he was fired.
"I think at the NFL level, all coaches employ the same best practices," ESPN analytics expert Brian Burke wrote in 2013. "There is no secret sauce that one coach has over another in terms of instruction, motivation, strategy, etc.
“In other words, NFL outcomes are overwhelmingly driven by player talent and luck, and there’s not much room left for coaching to make a big impact.”
Mularkey, Bradley and Lewis may not even be much to blame for their teams’ failings. But there’s a narrative tied to their names and unless that changes, it could mean the end of the road in 2016.
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