NBA trade rumor season will be especially strange this year

NBA trade rumors are picking up because the deadline is just six weeks away and one team — the Hawks — has already unloaded a key rotation player. This week in FLANNS & ZILLZ, we discuss players on the block and teams that should be wheelin’ and dealin’.

FLANNERY: Despite being in fourth place in their conference and playing well of late, the Hawks opened trade season by dealing Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers six weeks before the deadline. That’s the same Cavalier squad that swept the Hawks out of the playoffs the last two years.

Ordinarily this would inspire some outrage. A playoff team giving up on a key player barely halfway through the year and helping their principal antagonist? Shame!

Yet, as you wrote on Monday, the Hawks made a sober, rational decision and it’s hard to argue with that point. Honestly, I didn’t even realize they were in “fourth” when they made the deal. I had them lumped in with the rest of the muddled masses in the East.

Before we get to the rest of the rumor mill, let’s assess the field. There are two clear favorites, one in each conference. Beyond them are two or three teams with designs on cracking the deeper rounds of the postseason, and beyond them is a whole lot of teams with mixed messages and conflicting priorities.

This trade season will be fascinating.

ZILLER: Indeed, especially since there are so few legit stars on the block but plenty of solid starters or rotation players. Because the East pack is so deep (everyone but Brooklyn, Philly, and Miami) and because the West No. 8 is so attainable, we have very few sellers. The Heat, Suns, and Nets might be the only bad teams with assets to spare who might be interested in dealing, and Brooklyn is questionable on that count due to their draft pick situation.

But lots of teams in the race do have movable players: Millsap in Atlanta, Rudy Gay in Sacramento, Evan Turner in Portland, Ricky Rubio in Minnesota, Danilo Gallinari in Denver, literally everyone in Orlando. The league as a whole would benefit from a big ol’ shuffle of any number of these players, to be honest. Let’s see if we can build some contours on this season!

FLANNERY: Yes, let’s! I want to see some deals this winter because I think a bunch of teams came into the season with unrealistic expectations and need to face reality, much like the Hawks did.

You mentioned a few of the obvious sellers, but what about the teams that still haven’t given up the ghost? I’m thinking about Orlando and Denver.

Then there are some like Washington and Portland whose big goals haven’t materialized. Do they make a big move to help their current situation, or hit the reset button and try again next year? That’s the key factor in whether we’re going to have a freewheeling deadline.

The other variable here is that teams like Toronto and maybe even Boston have assets to burn and ground to make up. Do they spin the big wheel of chance? Let’s start there.

I think the Raps should be all in for everything at this moment, including taking a shot at Millsap (cap issues be damned.) I don’t feel that way about the Celtics at all. And while this will annoy the more impatient members of their fan base and a good chunk of basketball twitter, I think it’s best if they sit tight on that Brooklyn pick.

ZILLER: I wonder how Jaylen Brown’s development curve (long, it’s fair to say?) impacts the thinking around moving the Nets’ pick. That pick will be most valuable in June, but it has immense value now and is a bird in hand, in a sense. Do you cash in now or hope for lottery luck?

That may actually be beside the point: there’s no one on the market worth that pick. Until and unless Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and/or DeMarcus Cousins become available, it’s irrelevant.

The Raptors, though, do have assets to flip for with Millsap, Serge Ibaka, or Gallinari. I agree that they should go for it. Unfortunately, their big draft pick asset has already turned into Jakob Poeltl, who has less value now than as an unprotected Knicks pick a year ago. But they should be the most prominent buyers.

I think Washington has to be a buyer. I just don’t know what they have available to move.

FLANNERY: Right, the Celtics can operate both in the now and the future and not many teams can reasonably do both. If the Nets pick is in the top three and the draft is as strong as people think it is at the top, then adding a stud prospect to go with Brown helps lay the foundation for the future. A foundation, by the way, that plays nicely with the new CBA.

I don’t think DeMarcus or PG are going anywhere, so that leaves Butler, and we haven’t heard the last of that one at all. They’re not trading that pick for Millsap or Gallo or any of the other stopgap reinforcements.

The Wizards intrigue me. They’ve played much better over the last month or so and look like the team we thought they’d be back in October. The East isn’t that deep at the top, so a club like Washington that comes together at the right time could make some waves this spring. Let’s say they take a shot on Millsap. Would you give up Kelly Oubre for him?

ZILLER: Yes, but not Otto Porter or Bradley Beal. I’m not sure Oubre, Tomas Satoransky, and a pick get Millsap, but it’s worth a shot. I actually think Washington can find a deal with Denver as well for one of those veteran un-leaders Mike Malone is so mad at.

We’ll talk about the fascinating Magic in a moment, but it strikes me that none of the top seven West teams have any imperative to be active. You could see OKC shopping Enes Kanter and Cameron Payne in search of a small forward (Sam Presti loves to deal). You could see the Clippers and Grizzlies tinkering around the edges. But otherwise this group is going to be pretty static. We know what we’re getting as we hum toward April.

FLANNERY: The top contenders out West should be eyeing the waiver wire for buy-out candidates or maybe a low-cost vet like, say, Mike Dunleavy. I’d expect the most movement among the half-dozen teams angling for that final playoff spot.

We mentioned Denver, Portland, and Sacramento already, but the Pels ought to be looking to bolster their roster and the Wolves could decide to add some veteran help at the expense of B-level prospects or picks. (I’m excluding KAT, Wiggins, Dunn, and Lavine here). If you’ve got Millsap, it’s in your best interest to string this thing along and continue generating interest while teams figure out if they’re buying or selling.

You mentioned the Magic. OK, go. What should they do here?

ZILLER: Sell everyone.

FLANNERY: Glad that’s solved. Not sure they see it that way, though.

ZILLER: Certainly not, and I’m being daft. But at this point, as Aaron Gordon flails as a small forward and Mario Hezonja remains strapped to the bench, you might as well start from scratch.

The Magic are hardly any further along than they were the second they traded Dwight Howard. This despite doing the best in that deal in terms of long-term assets. It’s added up to nothing. I like Rob Hennigan’s draft history overall but the roster is a complete disaster. If Gordon isn’t in Orlando’s future, sell him! The same applies to Hezonja and perhaps Elfrid Payton (despite his bottomed-out value).

That said, in those prospects the Magic do have the makings for a mega offer in the trade game. I could see them getting Millsap to pair with Bismack Biyombo and Evan Fournier for another playoff run next year. Millsap almost signed there two years ago. Getting to where Atlanta is now would be success for Orlando, all things told.

FLANNERY: We interrupt this fun hypothetical with word from Woj that Millsap is no longer available. Something tells me this won’t be the last time we have this conversation so we’ll just pick it up from here in a month or so.

ZILLER: The Hawks? Indecisive about trading Millsap? Knock me over with a (red) feather.