A Paul Millsap trade could dramatically alter the NBA Playoff race

Reports suggest the Hawks are listening to offers for three-time All-Star Paul Millsap, who will become a free agent at season’s end. Paul Flannery and Tom Ziller discuss the potential landing spots and impact of Millsap in this week’s Flanns & Zillz.

FLANNERY: Paul Millsap is an excellent player. He was long the captain of the All-Underrated team and in recent years he’s been elevated to legit All-Star status. He’s a pro’s pro, a connoisseur’s kind of player. Even if casual fans don’t embrace Millsap’s work, you can bet that rival GMs, coaches, and opponents understand just how good he is on the court.

And now comes word that he’s available, or at least, that the Hawks are open to listening to offers for him. That’s semantics really. If you’re listening, you’re open to dealing. And since Sap is in the last year of his contract and the Hawks are going nowhere fast, that all makes sense.

First things first, what’s Millsap’s value in this context?

ZILLER: There are two parts to this: this year and this summer.

On the right team, with the right outgoing package, Millsap is a game changer for the playoff picture. I’m thinking specifically of Toronto, where Millsap would be an upgrade on Patrick Patterson and give the No. 1 offense another dimension while upgrading the defense. (Millsap and DeMarre Carroll is a nice counter to LeBron.)

The Wizards with Millsap would launch up into the 4-5 range in the East. The Magic could make a real playoff push with him. The Nuggets would be interesting with him. He could help solve the Blazers’ woes. The Kings would be upgraded in a serious way. I think he’d give another dimension to the Thunder. I see Millsap almost as a 2004 Rasheed Wallace in this way. He could change the course of the league this year. That’s a lot of options, and only some of those teams have assets to make a compelling deal for Millsap.

The other question is which teams are ready to pay Millsap $30 million a year in free agency, and which teams think he’ll re-sign with them instead of picking his own team. This is the eternal struggle with trading expiring contracts: no one wants to give up loot for a rental unless there’s reason to believe they’ll stick around.

So if talks do get serious, Millsap’s agent is going to have to lay out where his client plans to consider re-signing. That could significantly limit the market.

FLANNERY: Right, the market for players entering the final years of their contracts is notably bare. Especially in this day and age, when you’ll have to really pay up to keep someone.

We saw this with Millsap’s former teammate, Al Horford, last year. Why give up assets when you can sign the guy in the summer? And no one wants to pay a lot for a rental, especially if he doesn’t quite get you over the hump. (Thinking mostly about Toronto here, but let’s get into the teams and fit in a minute.)

You likened Millsap to Sheed. I’m the biggest Millsap stan around, but even I think that’s a bit too far. You sticking with that?

ZILLER: Sticking with it. And this is no slight on Sheed, who I enjoyed a great deal.

Neither made All-NBA teams, Millsap has made three straight All-Star teams while Sheed ended up with four scattered through his career. Few thought acquiring Sheed at midseason would turn the Pistons into a champion, but that’s exactly what happened. Detroit was pretty good before pulling the trigger on the trade. “Pretty good” teams out there should consider doing the same.

The thing with Millsap as a free agent is that despite the league moving to empower teams to be able to keep their guys, that doesn’t apply here. Like Horford, he could go almost anywhere he wants in July, so be careful giving up assets for him in February.

Let’s broaden the scope. Are there any other players of this caliber on the market? DeMarcus Cousins isn’t getting traded so long as 38 wins looks viable for the No. 8 seed in the West.

FLANNERY: The new rules kind of squashed all that. Cousins is his own entity, but if you were hoarding cap space and assets for a run at Jimmy Butler or Paul George, that’s pretty much over now. Millsap’s the best of the lot, by far. After that you’d have to really like Ricky Rubio or Kenneth Faried to take a swing.

Let’s put this back on Millsap. You mentioned a bunch of intriguing landing spots. I’d love to see him in Toronto. I don’t think he swings the pendulum completely in the North’s favor, but it certainly gives them a better chance against Cleveland. Ideally, where would you like him to end up?

ZILLER: I think the Raptors are really good and a part of me wants to see them get another arrow to loose at Cleveland in the interest of a maximally entertaining spring. But because Toronto is so good already, I’m intrigued by the idea of letting him find a home in an Eastern city that can become a clear-cut member of the East elite. Assuming Boston’s little run is legit (which I do) it’d be nice to have a fourth 50-win team out there. Can Charlotte make it happen? Washington? Hell, Detroit?

Whatever the case, it’s not Atlanta, who is getting old fast and looks fully mediocre with Millsap. You have to wonder how much stomach Mike Budenholzer has for tearing it all down after investing in Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore.

FLANNERY: You know, Sap would be fantastic in Washington and that’s just the kind of move a GM in desperate straits might make.

I just want him to be happy, Tom. Any of the East teams you mentioned would work, mainly because Millsap is an easy guy to integrate into your system. But again, he’s 31 and looking for one more big contract. That’s not a great mix.

It’s weird and yet not weird to be talking about Atlanta like this. The Hawks were so much fun that one year, and while I was not optimistic about their long-term prospects, I’m still surprised at how quickly they fell. It’s a reminder of just how hard it is to build a good team without a superstar foundation.

ZILLER: Life is tenuous when you can’t build around a player like LeBron, Curry, or Harden. The Raptors or anyone else deciding whether to go for it right now would be wise to remember that. Shoot your shot!

FLANNERY: I’m with it. Mainly so I can see if your Sheed analogy really holds water.