What’s at stake in the Manchester United-Liverpool weekend clash

There are no must-win Premier League games in October. How could there be? We’re still in the pleasant, early stages of autumn, and the league table is a young, stumbling, part-formed thing. Three points won here, three points dropped there — important, of course. Significant, definitely. But far from crucial.

As such, Manchester United’s visit to Liverpool this Saturday (7:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports) is not a must-win game. Neither club’s ambitions for the season — a title challenge, a strong showing in this season’s Champions League, a place in next season’s — are contingent on the result.

But.

Perhaps more interesting than must-win games are could-really-do-without-losing games. The former are binary things, job done or otherwise; the latter are nuanced and speculative. Their meaning can be contested. And beyond the usual ill-feeling, Saturday’s big game might just be one such fixture. For both sides, this is a delicate moment.

Liverpool, the home side, are not in crisis. That would be ridiculous. It’s October. But at the same time things aren’t exactly going to plan. The 4-0 thumping of Arsenal was supposed to be a statement; it turned out to be a statement about Arsenal. Since then, they’ve been dissected by Manchester City, knocked out of the League Cup by Leicester, and been held to draws by Sevilla and Burnley at Anfield, and Spartak Moscow and Newcastle away.

Their only win since the end of August came against Leicester in the league, and while that was a welcome result, it was some distance from a convincing performance. At one end of the pitch they squander presentable chances, while at the other they present unsquanderable ones. These are not the habits of successful teams.

So, not a crisis. But a loss to United would put Liverpool 10 points behind the league leaders. More importantly, it would serve to intensify that sticky pre-crisis feeling, where the air is thick with tension and the stink of curdled expectation. It would also, by amusing coincidence, leave the team knocking around midtable with 12 points from eight games — exactly their position when Brendan Rodgers was sacked.

At least Jürgen Klopp has the comfort of knowing that there isn’t another conveniently unemployed Jürgen Klopp lurking in the job market. That would be both professionally awkward and existentially distressing.

As for United, they have no such concerns with their form. They go into the game in second place, just one goal behind Manchester City, having taken 19 points from a possible 21. They’ve kept six clean sheets in the league, and scored 21 goals. And it would be frankly churlish to point out that this thundering start has come against the teams in 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, and 20th.

This isn’t a problem: Good teams need to be beating everybody. Indeed, it was a failure to beat precisely such teams that undermined United’s campaign last season, and as such this is an important improvement. But it does mean that Saturday’s game becomes a significant test. It’s the moment in the season when we start to learn the answer to the question: Sure, United look better, but are they actually good?

That question gets investigated at Liverpool, then two games later at home to Tottenham, and then immediately afterward away at Chelsea. Then Arsenal and Manchester City come back to back at the beginning of December. So if United wobble, look weak, or get taken apart at Anfield, the rest of the Sky Sports Super Six will be taking notes.

In short, for both sides, this game will set the tone for what comes next. A convincing win will serve as notice of their quality; a poor loss will raise further questions, awkward and fundamental ones. The game won’t end anybody’s title challenge, but it might serve as notice that somebody’s challenge will have to be postponed, again.

Will this affect the game as a spectacle?

All those early points mean that United’s need for a win is far less pressing than Liverpool’s, and this — coupled with the absence of Paul Pogba, the player who makes everything better — presents the perfect opportunity for José Mourinho to squat down over what could be a thrilling occasion and cover it in fresh, hot, steaming Mourinho. Crudely put, the Mourinho model is to smash the small games and squeeze the big ones, and you suspect that if you offered him a draw before the game, he’d tell Rui Faria to bite your hand off.

But for a side that end up with too many draws, this Liverpool side look neither equipped nor inclined to play for one. That stands even in the absence of Sadio Mané, off with Pogba in hamstring purgatory. It’s easy and tempting to imagine a game where Liverpool attack in waves and United are given plenty of space to counter. And such a game could easily satisfy most of the requirements for footballing fun: pace, goals, and defenders falling over.

Ultimately, it’s been far too long since this fixture was actually a good game, rather than just a big one. Let’s hope that the wider context, and the delicacy of the moment, serves to electrify the occasion, rather than flatten it.