Gary Harris and the hazards of NBA restricted free agency

Even when NBA teams don’t use the cudgel of restricted free agency, its looming threat helps franchises get discounts on second-tier prospects. Consider the case of Gary Harris.

Harris might soon be a star. In his third season, he shot 42 percent from beyond the arc on nearly five attempts per game and shot better than 50 percent overall. He could stand to boost his volume overall and improve on other elements of his game, but at age 23, he’s a bright young shooting guard. Harris is roughly on par with where Klay Thompson had been at this age, though Thompson was the more proven defender.

Despite that excellent upside, Harris took a below-market contract extension with the Nuggets instead of hitting restricted free agency next summer.

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported over the weekend that Harris has agreed to a four-year, $84 million extension with Denver, with $10 million of that locked up in team and individual incentives. We aren’t sure whether those incentives are reasonable yet. But even if they are attainable, $84 million over for years is a great price for Harris.

While it may seem like a huge sum of money for a player who scored less than 15 points per game, Daniel C. Lewis at Denver Stiffs points out the relative value. Given the increases in the team salary cap, this is similar to Kenneth Faried’s old contract in impact. Denver got Harris well under his max, something important given how much the Nuggets shelled out for Paul Millsap and will have to pony up for Nikola Jokic soon enough.

If this was a bargain for Denver, the question becomes: Why did Harris do it instead of waiting for the opportunity to hunt for a bigger deal as a free agent next summer?

Perhaps Harris couldn’t say no to generational wealth as it sat on the table in front of him. But the threat of restricted free agency also likely had a major role.

Consider that only one 2017 restricted free agent — Otto Porter — ended up grabbing a maximum contract this summer. As cap space dried up amid slower cap growth than expected, teams focused their attention primarily on unrestricted free agents and trade targets.

While the NBA has sought to make restricted free agency slightly less onerous for chasing teams to make an offer, it’s still a bad bet. Teams have to convince players to sign offer sheets, often shaping those deals in obnoxious ways to convince the incumbent team not to match. Then their cap space is tied up for three days while the incumbent team makes a decision.

For a team to make a second-tier star like Porter or Harris a big offer, the player has to be really good and the chasing team has to have little to lose.

It’s tough to know whether a team will be in a place to offer Harris more than $84 million a year from now. We don’t know how Harris’ role in the offense will be affected by Millsap’s presence, whether the instability at point guard will derail the season, whether Harris will be struck by injury. There’s a lot of uncertainty in Denver, and uncertainly in being a restricted free agent in the NBA. Harris’ new teammate Josh Childress could write a book about that.

Restricted free agency consistently undercuts players’ values on the market. JaMychal Green is a good starter on a playoff team; as a restricted free agent, he signed for $16 million over two years. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope watched his qualifying offer get pulled, thrusting him into poorly timed unrestricted status where he nabbed just a one-year deal.

Nerlens Noel, the No. 1 free agent center overall, ended up accepting his cheap one-year qualifying offer to get out of restricted status and become unrestricted next summer. Nikola Mirotic, who might lead an NBA team in scoring this year, took a one-year, $12.5 million deal.

A few players beyond Porter did well in restricted free agency, including Tim Hardaway Jr. and Denver’s own Mason Plumlee. (Plumlee had to wait an excruciatingly long time to ink his deal, though. What torture!) But Harris’ camp looked at the upside — a few million more per season, perhaps — and the risk and took the money. Given the cap climate in the NBA right now, that was likely a smart move.

To make the investment truly pay off, the Nuggets need to manage what little flexibility they have left. Locking in Harris likely means that Will Barton will be gone in a year’s time. Trading him sooner for a defender or two might be wise. Defense is where the Nuggets must grow to be competitive in the West. Harris, Jokic, and Millsap ensure the offense will remain top-notch. Everything else should be fluid until the Nuggets find a supporting cast that works.