I’ll skip the preamble this week. But in the interest of honesty, I’m keeping this brief because I have tickets for the new Star Wars movie. Priorities, right?
NFL picks against the spread 2017, Week 15: Best bets for the adventurous gambler
Get your money ready! Gambling picks for every game in Week 15.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Usual rules apply. Home team is in all caps. The odds are courtesy of OddsShark.
Saturday games
Bears (+4.5) over LIONS — It feels like the Bears are better than their 4-9 record. Maybe they are, only three of their nine losses have been by more than a touchdown. And now they’s starting to heat up a little bit with last week’s 33-7 win over the Bengals.
Mitch Trubisky is a big part of that. He completed 78 percent of his passes in the last two games for 373 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 113.9 QB rating.
The Lions need to win so they can stay in the playoff hunt, so you can probably count on them losing to the Bears then. Also, they’re a dreadful 1-7 against the spread in their last eight division games at home.
Chargers (even) over CHIEFS — If the Chiefs will run the ball, I’d give them a better chance to win this game, but I don’t trust Andy Reid to do that. What I’m banking on here is the Chargers getting an early lead and forcing Alex Smith to try and pass the ball.
Sunday games
VIKINGS (-11) over Bengals — Cincy hasn’t been double-digit road underdogs since 2010. But these are a different breed of tigers, clawless ones. Last week, Carolina proved that the Vikings aren’t unstoppable, but such a feat would take a lot more than what the Bengals have to offer.
Packers (+3) over PANTHERS — Aaron Rodgers is coming back. Sure, I know he’s not quite 100 percent, but are you really going to bet against Rodgers and the potential comeback story at play here?
JAGUARS (-11.5) over Texans — I hope, for the Texans’ sake, they haven’t made crass remarks anytime ever about how bad the Jaguars are.
SAINTS (-16) over Jets — That’s a big damn spread, but it is a road game with Bryce Petty starting for New York. It’s justified.
GIANTS (+7.5) over Eagles — Even without Carson Wentz, the Eagles are a better team than the Giants, but I think it’s going to take some adjustment. Plus, the Eagles with Nick Foles just aren’t as hard to defend. They should still get the win, but the Giants should be able to keep it close.
SEAHAWKS (-2) over Rams — If the Rams are going to win this game, it’s going to take a big contribution from Robert Woods, who’s returning from injury this week, against a Seattle secondary being held together by tape, Earl Thomas and a brutal pass rush.
This is the toughest game to pick this week.
Patriots (-3) over STEELERS — The Ravens and their, um, less than dynamic offense managed to put up 38 points on the Steelers last week, mostly because Pittsburgh doesn’t have Ryan Shazier. That’s the deciding factor here for me.
Retired NFL defensive end Stephen White and I spent a lot of time talking about this game on the podcast this week, so you should check that out for more insight here.
49ERS (-1) over Titans
Cowboys (-3) over RAIDERS
BILLS (-3.5) over Dolphins
Ravens (-7) over BROWNS
WASHINGTON (-4) over Cardinals
Monday night game
Falcons (-6) over BUCCANEERS — Atlanta’s going to have to do a little better this week than they did in last week’s win over the Saints. While it was a win, it was also Matt Ryan’s worst game of the season with three picks and a 55.2 QB rating. And who could forget Dan Quinn’s idea to decline a penalty at the end of the game that almost cost his team a win? Still, this is the Bucs they’re playing.
