Two weeks left in the NFL season. Two more weeks for the 19 teams still vying for a playoff berth. Five of those 19 have clinched a spot — Jacksonville, New England, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Philadelphia. That leaves three spots in the AFC and four in the NFC. It will be a wild two weeks.
Which NFL hopefuls are actually going to make it to the playoffs?
There are still seven of 12 playoff spots up for grabs with only two weeks left to go. Retired NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz breaks down the contenders and pretenders.
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
If you’ve clinched with two weeks left, you’re a legit team. We know what you’re strengths are heading into the postseason.
How about the teams still vying for that playoff spot?
Let’s go through the rest of the contenders, starting in the AFC.
The Kansas City Chiefs need one victory in their last two games to wrap up the AFC West.
Despite their cold streak in the middle of the season, the Chiefs offense is legit again.
Believe it or not, quarterback Alex Smith leads all quarterbacks in yards gained on passes more than 20 yards downfield (1,224), per Pro Football Focus. Less than half of those yards are to Tyreek Hill, who’s almost unstoppable on deep passes.
The offensive line has started to play more constantly and it’s showed. The Chiefs are 6-0 this season when Kareem Hunt has 100 rushing yards in a game. Lately, the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation has turned to Alvin Kamara, but Hunt has close to 300 more all-purpose yards than Kamara.
The Chiefs offense needs to play well, because up until the last two weeks, the Chiefs defense hasn’t been very good. It was 30th in yards per game and rushing yards per game. The last two weeks, it’s fifth and seventh in those categories. When the Chiefs are playing as a team, they are almost unstoppable.
The Titans still have a chance to win the AFC South, but most likely will get a wild card spot.
They finish with the Rams and Jaguars, so it won’t be easy. I’ve written about the Titans offensive woes lately, but they still have a competent offensive line and could get some magic out of Marcus Mariota in the playoffs, if he’s healthy.
On defense, the Titans are third against the run and sixth in the red zone. Keeping teams from scoring points is a key when your offense is struggling. I don’t think teams have to fear the Titans in the playoffs.
Even if the Bills win out, they would need help getting into the dance for the first time since 1999.
They have to beat the Patriots this weekend too. The Bills are plus-7 in turnover margin, which is good for fifth in the NFL. Otherwise, things don’t look so good.
By most statistical measures, the Bills could be the worst team in line to make the 2017 playoffs. They are the worst of the current playoff teams in points, yardage and sack differential, points per game on offense and defense. Both are not recipes for playoff success.
If you’re looking for a positive, the Bills can rush the football. That can keep them in a game. According to Football Outsiders, they are eighth in special teams, so another positive.
The Ravens are currently on the outside looking in but sit in a great spot for the playoffs.
If they just win their next two games, against the Colts and Bengals. Out of the potential wild card teams, I like the Ravens the best. They lead the NFL in turnover margin at plus-17. They are second in defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA. We know what we are getting from their defense. It’s good.
On offense they struggled early on, but Joe Flacco has kicked it into high gear lately, averaging 275 yards in the last three weeks and raising his passer rating 20 points. Their rushing attack has taken off as well.
If you’re looking for a dark horse in the AFC, it’s the Ravens.
One week ago, the Chargers were the hottest team in the AFC.
After their loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers dropped to 7-7 with a slim chance at the playoffs. If they get in, they can rush the passer with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. When you can rush the passer, you can win games in the playoffs.
I love Philip Rivers because he’s a gamer. He stands tall in the pocket, and I trust him to bring it in the playoffs with all his weapons. Chargers are seventh in yards per play on offense and have given up the least amount of sacks. They would be a tough out in the playoffs.
The Rams are legit.
Moving to the NFC, let’s start with the Rams. They can run the ball, control the field with Jared Goff, and hit home runs.
On defense, they have Aaron Donald, who might be the best player at his position in the NFL. They will be a tough out for anyone once they clinch their ticket.
If the Panthers win out, they’ll win the NFC South; win this weekend, and they’re in the playoffs.
The Panthers have beaten the Vikings and Packers in back-to-back weeks while forcing seven turnovers and giving away the rock just once. Even with all that, the Panthers won both games by only seven points.
The X factor is Cam Newton. The Panthers have more success when they call designed run plays for Newton. They have scored a touchdown on more than 36 percent of drives featuring a designed run with Newton. When Cam is on, the Panthers are so tough to beat.
The Panthers have started to run the rock so well lately and have finally found a way to use Christian McCaffrey. They are peaking right now.
On defense, Luke Kuechly is a stud, and whenever the Panthers need a big play on defense, Julius Peppers is there. The Panthers just win football games. They will be a tough out
The 10-4 Saints currently lead the NFC South.
They can clinch a playoff berth with a win this weekend against the Falcons.
So I love the Saints. I’ve written about them before and made a video on their offense:
They can do it all. However, lately they have been kind of uhh. They should have beaten the Jets more handily and played sloppy in a loss to the Falcons two weeks ago. They can avenge that loss to Atlanta this weekend, and I think they will.
It doesn’t seem like it, but the Falcons offense can do some damage.
The 9-5 Falcons can win the NFC South with two victories to end the season, against the Saints and Panthers. One more win either way, and they are in the playoffs.
They are fourth in yards per play, second in pass yards per play, and first on third downs. On defense, they are average to above average. They are minus-4 in turnover margin, which would worry me. That defense doesn’t force enough turnovers. They just don’t pass the eye test sometimes.
The Lions have Matthew Stafford, and he’d be the reason they would win a playoff game.
The Lions can easily win out, facing the Bengals and Aaron Rodgers-less Packers to finish the season. They would still need some help at 10-6 to get in though.
Last season they went to Seattle with Stafford hurt (his finger on throwing hand), and it didn’t go well. Stafford is a tad banged up right now too, but he’s still playing well. Since Week 9, he leads the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passing yards. He’d be the reason the Lions would win a playoff game
I’m not sure how anyone could be confident in the Seahawks right now.
Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner are beefing, the defense got gashed the last two weeks, and the offense completely stalled against two playoff teams. But they still have Russell Wilson.
He hasn’t played well the last two weeks. Maybe because he’s tired of carrying this team every week. Wilson has accounted for 81.9 percent of Seahawks yards and 97.1 percent of Seahawks offensive touchdowns, both the highest by any player in Super Bowl era. Just ridiculous.
The Cowboys HAVE to win this weekend, but can they?
The Cowboys, at 8-6, get the Seahawks this weekend in an elimination game. Loser is out.
The Cowboys get Zeke Elliott back from a six-week suspension, just as the offense is starting to roll without him. He will be a pleasant addition to the lineup, but don’t expect him to come firing out of the gates. It might take a whole half for him to get up to speed. He is the key for the Cowboys. If they can control the time of possession, they have a chance to control the game.
Demarcus Lawrence has been a bright spot rushing the passer, but if the Cowboys defense is on the field too long, bad things happen.
Hopefully this gets you ready for a wild final stretch in the NFL season! Enjoy the games this weekend, and let me know if you think your favorite team has a shot to win the Super Bowl!
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