NFL Black Monday: What is it and what to expect when it comes in 2018

The NFL playoff race is red-hot this time of year, but for the teams that aren’t playing in January, there’s a different game going on. For fans of teams that won’t go to the playoffs, this is generally the time to start filling out draft boards and free agency wish lists. It’s also the time to look for new coaches once Black Monday passes.

Only one head coach has been fired midseason this year: The New York Giants canned Ben McAdoo, and by all accounts Marvin Lewis is on the way out with the Cincinnati Bengals. But plenty more will soon join them on Black Monday, the traditional firing day in the NFL.

It’s the day after the end of the regular season, when most bad teams fire their head coach and start searching for a new one. Of course, the name “Black Monday” is a bit of hyperbole, especially when compared to other days with a similar name. It’s a head coach looking for a new job, not the stock market crashing or customers rioting at retail stores the day after Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, the name stuck and has become something of a minor tradition in the NFL.

Black Monday, much like Christmas, seems to come earlier every year. Last season, we saw three head coach firings before the end of the season, when the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars dismissed Jeff Fisher, Rex Ryan, and Gus Bradley, respectively. In 2015, Joe Philbin, Ken Whisenhunt, and Chip Kelly all got their walking papers well before Week 17.

You can generally see the warning signs come a mile away — with more access than ever in the social media era, head coach firings rarely come as a legitimate surprise these days. An underachieving team is the main component, along with players actively quitting on their coach, media reports of him losing the locker room, and a general sense of malaise.

You saw this play out earlier in the season, when the Giants’ constant drama led to McAdoo being shown the door. For the most part, a team would rather wait out the season before firing its coach, so it takes a special recipe of disaster to remove him in the middle of the year.

The 2017 season has been surprisingly light on midseason firings, but Black Monday could be a bumper crop with lots of teams that didn’t meet expectations and obvious lame ducks strewn across the league. Let’s take a look at the men on the hot seat.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts — Andrew Luck didn’t play a single down this season, but even with that mulligan, 2017 exposed Pagano as a man with no plan and no ideas. A lot of blame does lie with former GM Ryan Grigson for building such a poor roster, but despite knowing he probably wouldn’t have Luck at all, it’s shocking how unprepared Pagano’s team looked every week. The Colts blew seven halftime leads this year, which just shouldn’t happen with any coaching staff that knows how to close out games.

Pagano has had a genuinely inspiring comeback from cancer, but it’s clear he just isn’t cut out for this job.

Update: Pagano was fired following the Colts’ Week 17 win over the Texans.

John Fox, Chicago Bears — Losing double-digit games with a rookie quarterback is one thing, but it feels like Fox purposely tries to put the least watchable team possible on the field every week. After three years, it’s pretty obvious that this is the team Fox wants, and it’s not a team that can win games in today’s NFL. Maybe the Bears can find a coach who’s interested in using Mitchell Trubisky, who we still don’t know is actually good or not.

Update: The Bears fired Fox on Black Monday.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions — Any lingering goodwill Caldwell might’ve had evaporated after Week 16, when the Lions suffered an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and knocked themselves out of playoff contention. The local media has since sharpened the knives, with the Detroit Free Press calling the loss “inexcusable” and Pride of Detroit saying it’s time to move on. For general manager Bob Quinn, this might be the ideal time to find his own head coach rather than stick with a holdover coach he didn’t hire. The Lions could really use some new blood as they keep wasting away Matthew Stafford’s prime years.

Update: Caldwell was let go on Black Monday.

Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders — Much like Koetter, Del Rio’s team had big expectations entering the season and failed to live up to them. The Raiders’ fall is even more sudden after going 12-4 and ending their playoff drought last year. Derek Carr went from an MVP candidate to looking like just a guy, while Amari Cooper horribly regressed and the defense is still bad despite having Khalil Mack. Del Rio already fired his defensive coordinator, which might be enough to get one more year, but he’s under the gun now.

Update: With Jon Gruden in their sight, the Raiders fired Del Rio after a Week 17 loss to the Chargers.

Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans — How do you make Marcus Mariota boring? That’s what Mularkey somehow managed to do, as he and his coaching staff fielded a painfully unwatchable offense despite obvious skill-position talent. The Titans are still in the playoff picture, but if they miss out after an 8-4 start, then Mularkey has some questions to answer.

Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans — Not every team is going to survive losing their franchise QB in early October, but the way the Texans curled up and died after Deshaun Watson tore his ACL is kinda startling. They’ve been 1-7 since then, trotting out Tom Savage and T.J. Yates as metaphorical white flags.

In fairness to O’Brien, he was dealt an awful hand with injuries this season. (The quarterbacks, J.J. Watt, and Whitney Mercilus are just the tip of the iceberg). However, there was reported tension between him and general manager Rick Smith, including concerns about him being the right fit for Watson’s skill set. Combine that with the Texans’ worst record since 2013 — right before O’Brien was hired — and this could lead to a clash of egos when all is said and done.

Update: O’Brien is sticking around and Rick Smith is taking a leave of absence to help care for his wife, who has breast cancer.

Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos — One-and-done firings are still pretty rare, but Joseph might be the strongest contender this year. The Broncos’ defense-first plan fell apart because they have no quarterback, and Joseph already offered up former OC Mike McCoy as a sacrificial lamb. In addition, John Elway hasn’t been shy about throwing his weight around, and he isn’t mincing words about his dissatisfaction. Elway should probably get more heat for the quarterback situation (Paxton Lynch, last year’s first-round pick, already looks like a lost cause), but Joseph still has a lot to prove if he survives this year.

Update: Joseph got a reprieve. John Elway is keeping him around.

Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — It’s probably not a good sign when the head coach has to deny reports of tension between himself and quarterback Jameis Winston. But that’s where the Bucs find themselves in a season where they were supposed to take a big step forward but faceplanted instead.

Update: Despite the setback, and constant rumors of Jon Gruden coming back, the Bucs will keep Koetter for another year.

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns — He’s gone just 1-31 in two years, but Cleveland’s situation is way too chaotic to make a solid guess either way. But it sounds like the Browns really are keeping him.
Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals — Dogged by retirement rumors most of the year, he could well take his leave with Arizona’s contention window closing. (Update: Arians is retiring.)
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers — He should probably be sending Aaron Rodgers gift baskets every Christmas.
Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys — How much longer will Jerry Jones put up with his aggressive mediocrity?