PGA Tour power rankings: Rickie rises, Rory can challenge for top spot in Mexico City

Making its debut this week: Our own SB Nation Golf Power Rankings.

Our power rankings will be a little different than the OWGR, with far more deference given to recent performance. We’re here to track current form and the chances you’d win a given golf tournament this week -- not what you did 18 months ago. This will be calculated based on a number of imprecise, non-mathematical factors, because, well, that’s what I feel like doing. We won’t just power ranking the field for that given week, or make any modifications or changes based upon how a current course or set-up favors a player. If we lined up all the world’s top players on a replacement-level PGA Tour course, who would have the best chance to win this week? That’s what we’re looking to measure.

Let’s get to the rankings for this week heading to Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship.

Last start: MC, Genesis Open

Sure, sure. Hideki blew his chance to reach World Number One with his second-round ejection (an 80!) at Riv. But at this point, his results since the Tour Championship still put him atop our index. Five worldwide wins in 10 starts this wraparound season, and two second place finishes to Justin Thomas is Woodsian dominance — no matter where you’re teeing it up.

A strong rebound performance at Chapultepec could keep him atop these rankings this week, considering his success this season. The key in Mexico for the young Japanese star? The putter. Hideki’s almost always on from tee-to-green, but when things go sideways — it’s generally the flatstick’s fault. He ranks 153rd in strokes gained putting over 17 tracked rounds this season.

Last start: Won, Genesis Open

In his last 18 events, DJ’s finished outside the top nine exactly four times. How far back does that run stretch? Last year’s Byron Nelson in May 2016. His dominant win at Riviera, a top-three finish at Pebble, and a runner-up in Abu Dhabi would indicate he’s showing no signs of letting up after reaching the top spot in the OWGR.

Week to week, there’s no one more reliable in golf right now to contend for the title than DJ — and he’s deserving of his new top world rankings. But, hey, this blogger likes wins and Hideki has five since the Tour Championship to DJ’s one. Check back with us next week.

Last start: T22, Genesis Open

Psssssst. Guess who’s quietly — still even after his win at Pebble — working to put himself in brilliant position to win at Augusta once again? Spieth’s get-back-to-basics approach to the offseason seems to be paying off, as he looks more like someone that’s enjoying golf again rather than entering crisis mode over each shot. He seems a sure bet to contend in April, and probably this week in Mexico City, too.

Last start, second, BMW South African Open

Rory was on a tear, seeming primed to return to the top spot in the world prior to his injury. It’s hard to know exactly how the time off will affect McIlroy when he returns to action this week in Mexico, but he played through the injury in South Africa and still almost won the dang event. He can reach OWGR’s top spot again with a win and a DJ finish of T-4 or worse this week. If he wins, we’ll count that as an affirmative that the injury had little effect — and our rankings will respond in kind.

Last start: Won, The Honda Classic

Rick finally got a win after sleeping on a Sunday lead, his first time in four tries — and it’s possible that he might have shook off some of the demons that plagued him in 2016, when he blew two 54-hole leads at the Wells Fargo and The Barclays. He’s quietly turned in a nice start to the season, a T-4 in Scottsdale coming just before Sunday’s win in Palm Beach Gardens.

Last start: MC, The Honda Classic

Remember just a few weeks ago when Justin Thomas seemed primed to rise up, contend with all these names, and make a run at Player of the Year? It’s been a rough go of it since JT returned to the Lower 48 from his two wins in Hawaii. He’s missed two cuts in three starts since, and made the cut on the number in his one bit of weekend play at Riviera. If he ejects early this week, he might drop from our rankings altogether next week despite his three PGA Tour wins on the wraparound season.

Last start: T-14, The Honda Classic

Could this finally be the year? Sergio picked up a nice win in Dubai over Henrik Stenson in early February. El Nino seems more comfortable in his own skin playing golf than ever before, but it’s still been almost 10 years since he won a PGA Tour and European Tour event within the same season. With his former rival old and broken, is it possible we could witness Garcia’s best year ever at age-37? Keep an eye on him in Mexico.

Last start: second, Dubai Desert Classic

Henrik’s been solid when we’ve seen him, finishing just behind Sergio in Dubai and just behind Hideki at the HSBC Champions in late October. But we just haven’t seen much of the Big Swede yet. He’s only made five worldwide starts since the playoffs in early September. This ranking might be a bit low, but long layoffs make this blogger a bit queasy. Henrik can rocket back up with a nice return in Mexico City this week.

Last start: T-4, Genesis Open

Some time off between September and December cost Rose world ranking points, but we won’t dock him too much here. The Olympic gold medalist has been solid since returning to the Tour in January in Hawaii — with a runner-up and two T-4 finishes in four starts. He’s due for a win — and this week would seem to make sense.

Last start: T-5, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

No one seems to jump off the page here as deserving of this spot. Jason Day is bad and sick right now. Adam Scott hasn’t won since this week last year. Tyrrell Hatton seems to deserve this spot as much as any based upon recent play, but I’m going with Rahm since he’s got a win and huge upside this season.