Tyrod Taylor doesn’t bring enough to the Bills offense to make $30 million

When the Bills chose to sit Tyrod Taylor for the last game of the 2016 season, many believed that it signaled the end of his time in Buffalo, but they still haven’t made a decision. That’s likely to stretch all the way “down to the wire,” according to the team’s brass.

On March 11, the team will finally have to make a decision on whether or not they want to take the option on Tyrod Taylor’s contract, a move that guarantees him $30.75 million over the next two years. Despite having had some success with Taylor, the Bills will ultimately be better off releasing him than committing to his hefty contract.

Buffalo finished at 15-14 in games Taylor started. For a franchise that has only had one winning season since 2004 and is yet to reach the playoffs since the turn of the millennium, it was a step in the right direction.

Overall, his numbers pass the eye test. Taylor has thrown 37 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions during the last two seasons. He has also accumulated 1,148 yards through the air, earning an impressive passer rating of 94.2. Taylor also added 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Digging further into the numbers, they reveal his limitations.

The Bills have been more successful when they take the ball out of their quarterback’s hands. They’re 1-10 in games where Taylor throws more than 30 pass attempts, the lone victory coming against a Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots in a Week 4 last season.

Winning games when Taylor throws fewer passes has been a trend for the Bills.

He averaged around 13 more pass attempts in losses compared to wins in 2015, while the difference shrunk to around 6 in 2016. Some of the disparity can be attributed to a team choosing to pass rather than run to quickly get down field while trailing. The more Taylor’s been asked to throw the ball, the more it exposes his weaknesses as a passer.

Taylor has been an asset to the running game, adding 10 rushing touchdowns in his 29 starts. Buffalo was 5-0 in 2015 in games where Taylor threw less than 25 attempts, allowing their impressive running back corps, led by LeSean McCoy, to get more touches.

The trouble here is that while Taylor has been an asset to the running game, his struggles as a passer make the Bills a one-dimensional offense. Let’s dive deeper into his passing stats with an emphasis on downfield throws.

Buffalo avoids putting faith in Taylor’s arm in general. They ranked 32^nd and 31^st in pass attempts in 2015 and 2016, a drop from an average passing offense in 2014, 18th in the NFL, to one of the NFL’s worst in 2015 and 2016.

The passing game never became much of a threat with Taylor; he only threw for more than 300 yards once. He only reached the 200-yard mark 14 times over two years, and the Bills still struggled when he did, going 2-12 in those games.

Buffalo posted a 12-3 record in games where he fell short of the 200 yard mark, including a 6-0 record during those games in 2015.

Taylor is too reliant on short passes and his receivers running for yards after the catch, while neglecting deeper options. He averaged under seven yards per pass attempt in 2016 and just 7.4 yards per attempt during his two-year span as starter.

He only threw 89 deep passes last season, a surprisingly low number for a team who’s receivers include Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin (the later two are free agents this year).

Taylor spreads the ball fairly evenly between the Bills’ top receivers when he throws downfield and none of them emerge as a primary target.

More interesting is where Taylor throws the ball when he does go long. Taylor still has not shown that he is comfortable throwing the ball across his body when looking downfield.

Fifty of his 89 deep passes are toward the right side of the field, one of the highest totals in the NFL, while neglecting the left side of the field.

This is a flaw we see in a few NFL quarterbacks, notably Alex Smith, but the disparity in targets and accuracy depending on what side of the field Taylor is throwing to can make an offense that already neglects its passing game even more predictable. Taylor’s completed fewer deep passes to the left side of the field than any other regular starting quarterback in 2016, other than Joe Flacco.

The Bills have been unable to take full advantage of their receivers’ deep speed with Taylor at quarterback.

Buffalo’s 15-14 record with Taylor starting is a perfect indicator for where they are with him under center. Not a bad team, but an average team. Taylor can’t be blamed for single-handedly losing the Bills many games, but he’s not winning many games for them either by making it a one-dimensional offense. That’s not an efficient way for a team to commit $30 million in guaranteed money.