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Who could replace Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Hendrick Motorsports?

We analyze the candidates Hendrick Motorsports will likely consider to drive the No. 88 car next season.

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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series AAA Texas 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Alex Bowman prior to a race last fall at Texas Motor Speedway.
Photo by Jerry Markland/Getty Images

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s announcement on Tuesday that he’s retiring at the end of the current Monster Energy Cup Series season creates an opportunity every driver covets: An opening at Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s most successful team.

Team owner Rick Hendrick has no shortage of options he could select to replace Earnhardt as driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet. If Hendrick wants to stay in-house he could choose rising star William Byron, who’s currently developing in the Xfinity Series, or Alex Bowman, the team’s test driver who helped fill in when Earnhardt was sidelined with concussion-like symptoms last year. Or Hendrick could elect to go outside the organization, pursuing a veteran who can immediately step in and bring the same level of competitiveness as teammates Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott.

As always in these kinds of situations, sponsorship will have an impact on the ultimate decision. Nationwide’s three-year contract to serve as anchor sponsor on the No. 88 car expires at the end of the 2017 season, and if Hendrick cannot get the insurance company to re-up, that creates another hurdle to clear before the team can focus on signing a new driver.

“We’ve got a lot of people to consider being partners, like our sponsors,” Rick Hendrick said during Earnhardt’s press conference. “We’ve just been talking to them. Priority one is to get everything prepared and get the day over with, and we’ll take time to decide what we do then.”

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Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

But taking sponsorship out of the equation, here’s a list of candidates that could potentially fill the soon-to-be vacated seat formerly occupied by NASCAR’s most popular driver.

Alex Bowman

Pressed into service when Earnhardt was unexpectedly sidelined a year ago, Bowman dazzled in his 10 starts. He finished in the top-10 three times, had several other strong runs curtailed by mechanical failures, and nearly won the November race at Phoenix International Raceway.

That he has strong rapport with crew chief Greg Ives and the No. 88 team works in Bowman’s favor, as does the fact his efforts behind the scenes last season is credited with helping Hendrick turnaround what was a rare performance downswing. What hurts Bowman, 24, is an otherwise less-than-stellar résumé that doesn’t include a single victory in 113 combined starts across NASCAR’s three national divisions.

William Byron

Considered one of NASCAR’s top prospects, Byron won a rookie-record seven Camping World Truck Series races last season. Impressed by what he saw, Rick Hendrick recruited Byron away from the Toyota camp and elevated him to Xfinity, where he has five top-10s in seven starts driving for a team partially owned by Earnhardt and Hendrick.

It’s only a matter of time before Byron earns a promotion to Cup, with the only question being whether the 19-year-old needs a bit more experience. But Hendrick has never been shy about giving young drivers an opportunity if they prove deserving, and Byron by all appearances has shown worthy. Also helping is an existing relationship with Axalta, one of Earnhardt’s primary sponsors.

Carl Edwards

When Edwards abruptly stepped away from a plum ride with Joe Gibbs Racing in January, he purposely never said he was retiring. That’s only fueled speculation that he will eventually return to fulltime competition — when the right opportunity presents itself.

And there would be no more ideal situation for Edwards than signing with Hendrick, which gets a driver who’s won 28 Cup races — two more than Earnhardt -- twice finished runner-up in the championship, and came within 10 laps of taking the title last season. If this union came to fruition, it’s an absolute win-win for both parties.

Again, Edwards, 37, has been noncommittal about a potential return. Which, considering the tenuous state of sponsorship on the No. 88 car, means Hendrick might not be able to wait and see if Edwards change his mind.

Kyle Larson

Of the names on this list, Larson has the longest odds to be driving a Hendrick car next season. Team owner Chip Ganassi has been adamant he won’t let his 24-year-old driver jump elsewhere, while Larson has publicly spoken numerous times how grateful he is that Ganassi gave him a chance when other organizations wouldn’t.

Sure, there’s always the possibility Rick Hendrick attempts to buy out Larson’s contract and keeps adding zeros to the check until Ganassi says yes. Realistically, however, there are too many hurdles to making a deal work.

Other options

Another conceivable scenario is that Earnhardt’s eventual long-term replacement isn’t available until 2019, therefore Hendrick signs a veteran as a one-year stopgap. In this instance, names to consider include Justin Allgaier, Greg Biffle, Elliott Sadler, and Regan Smith.

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