Todd McShay predicts quarterbacks to be top 3 picks in 2018 NFL mock draft

The quarterback class expected to hit the 2018 NFL draft has already generated plenty of hype and ESPN’s Todd McShay is another believer. On Thursday, the draft analyst released his first 2018 mock draft and it features quarterbacks as the first three picks.

The last time three quarterbacks went at the top of the draft order was in 1999 when Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith were the first three picks, respectively. Later in the first round, Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown were picked with the No. 11 and No. 12 picks.

Unlike that draft, McShay projected the only quarterbacks taken in the first round to be USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, and UCLA’s Josh Rosen.

In the first 2018 mock draft done by SB Nation’s Dan Kadar, Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are also the first three picks, albeit in a different order. However, Kadar also projects Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, and Washington State’s Luke Falk as first-round picks.

McShay appears to buy the hype for the top three quarterbacks, but not the rest of the class:

McShay and Kadar disagree about which quarterback comes second, but both are pegging USC’s Sam Darnold as the best in the class. And both are predicting he lands with the Cleveland Browns.

“Watching WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in preparation for the 2017 draft, it was hard not to notice Darnold,” McShay wrote. “He has the mental makeup, poise and arm strength you look for in an NFL quarterback.”

Darnold is 6’4, 225 pounds and entering his redshirt sophomore season with the Trojans. He began his freshman season in 2016 as the backup for junior Max Browne, but took over early in the year and finished with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

If he lands with the Browns, it would be third time in as many years that the team drafted a quarterback. The team’s depth chart for now features 2016 third-round pick Cody Kessler and 2017 second-round pick DeShone Kizer, along with former Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler.

After Darnold, McShay projects Wyoming’s Josh Allen to be the second selection to the San Francisco 49ers followed by UCLA’s Josh Rosen at No. 3 to the New York Jets. Kadar has the two swapped with Rosen to the 49ers at No. 2 and Allen just behind to the Jets.

To determine the draft order in 2018, McShay used Football Outsiders’ projections for the 2017 season. That order predicted the New England Patriots to defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LII, and some other oddities.

For example, disappointing seasons for the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts result in the picks in the top 10. While the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Chargers all bounce back to get the No. 15, No. 17, and No. 18 selections, respectively.

But no team would benefit more from the projections coming to fruition than the Browns.

According to Football Outsiders, the Houston Texans are in for a rough 2017, giving the Browns the No. 4 pick in 2018 and a selection early in the second round. With quarterbacks off the board with the first three picks — including Darnold to Cleveland at No. 1 — the Browns are able to take the top defensive player off the board at No. 4.

In McShay’s mock, that player is Clemson defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. At 6’4, 310 pounds, Wilkins would provide a big body up front, but he still managed to record 13 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2016.

The 2018 NFL draft is still a full year away, and there are plenty of twists and turns ahead of us in both the upcoming college football and NFL seasons.

A year ago, Kadar projected Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya to be the No. 2 overall selection, but he instead landed with the Detroit Lions as a sixth-round pick. Just a few picks later, he had Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly at No. 7, but the passer became Mr. Irrelevant instead.

But for now, teams without a solid future at quarterback can look forward to a draft that looks to have at least three quarterbacks that analysts are very confident in.