NBA free agency predictions: Where will all the big names end up?

NBA free agency strikes at midnight July 1, and there are a number of big names who will draw most of the attention: players like Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, and Paul Millsap. We also have at least one star player — Paul George — who will be the subject of intense trade rumors as we roll through July.

Equally as interesting as the machinations of the stars is what happens at the next level. It’s in that spirit that we offer these free agency predictions. It includes landing spots for the big names and the lesser-regarded players, in addition to some subplots we see cropping up as the offseason goes forward.

None of this is based on inside information. It’s based on history and publicly available reports from those with inside information. It is also based in large part on whims and fantasy. Enjoy!

Curry will sign the five-year, supermax deal. After leaving money on the table on his first post-rookie deal — the one on which he won two MVPs and two titles — he’s cashing in. This will be a five-year, $199 million contract.

Durant, meanwhile, isn’t eligible for as big a contract as Curry because the Warriors will be over the salary cap and don’t have KD’s Bird rights. The Warriors can still go over the cap to sign Durant using the non-Bird exception, but that limits his 2017-18 salary to 120 percent of his 2016-17 salary. Signing with the Warriors as a free agent last summer and sacrificing his Bird rights will cost Durant a few million off the max next season.

The Warriors pick up Durant’s Bird rights once he’s been there three years. As such, he’ll be a free agent again in 2019 when he can get back onto the maximum-salary track. The contract to expect here: a three-year, $99.7 million contract with a player option on that third season.

This will be framed as Durant taking less money to help the team. This is a lie. This is the maximum Durant can receive from the Warriors while ensuring he is back on the max track ASAP. It’s true that Durant will make less than he would have had he stayed in Oklahoma City. But he’s not leaving money on the table on the Warriors’ behalf at this point.

The wrinkle here is that the Warriors could waive their rights on a couple of big free agents like Andre Iguodala to open up cap space to sign Durant to a higher dollar level.

DeAndre Jordan will lock Griffin in a living room and force him to re-sign with the Clippers at five years, $176 million.

Hayward has spent his entire life in Indiana and Utah. These are lovely places, to be sure! But everyone needs a little beach time. Hayward will sign with the Heat for four years, $130 million with an early termination option for the fourth year.

The Raptors invested in DeMar DeRozan in a big way last summer. DeRozan had a fine year, but Toronto disappointed. I think Kyle Lowry’s summer is going to get very interesting ... but that he’ll stay with the Raptors for something around four years and $140 million.

This is the toughest case to suss out because the market is really wide open for Millsap. No one is totally sure what the Suns are doing, but they land meetings with top free agents every summer and are bound to come away with one. Millsap to Phoenix for $120 million, he said without any confidence.

Last year it was Bradley Beal and Timofey Mozgov. Who will sign an absurdly early deal this time around? Here are our guesses.

The first deal announced after the stroke of midnight: The Wizards will give Porter the max for four years, and he’ll take it: four years, $110 million.

Redick to the Nets for $100 million over four years. It is known.

Noel signs a max deal with the Mavericks before Chandler Parsons even wakes up on Saturday.

It has become increasingly clear that Andre Iguodala is not long for the Warriors simply because of his age and disinterest in playing for peanuts. Golden State mints money, but the Warriors’ braintrust is still interested in turning that revenue into profit. They can only do that by limiting expenses. Iguodala is a casualty of that. On the surface, Minnesota doesn’t need another wing defender after stealing Jimmy Butler from the Bulls. But veteran help and a guide for Andrew Wiggins could still be in order.

This is the summer Stan Van Gundy abandons the Andre Drummond project. A year ago, Van Gundy had to ink the young center to a fat contract to avoid losing the team’s best asset for nothing. But a disappointing season is going to have Van Gundy remixing the roster in a big way ... provided that Van Gundy doesn’t find himself out in Detroit.

Where will Drummond land? What a question! Let’s go with the Lakers over the Suns.

Danilo Gallinari to the Kings for $110 million over four years. Fans will talk themselves into it — what’s cap space if you don’t use it?

Danny Ainge doesn’t feel pressure from anyone. He’s not going to get bullied into overpaying for a P.G. rental, even if he gets stung by Hayward. The new Lakers braintrust, however, has a mandate to land stars now. Even if they do swing a major trade for a long-term piece, getting P.G. is a priority.

Will Russell Westbrook extend his contract with Oklahoma City again? No. He’ll be a free agent in 2018. And this will put Westbrook on the trade market because the Thunder won’t want to lose another MVP for nada.

Will James Harden extend his contract with Houston again? Yes. Doesn’t it feel like Harden will at some point end up the player with the highest career earnings?

JaMychal Green does not have a powerful agent in his corner. (No offense to his representation, but high-end experience and levers of power do tend to matter.) Green isn’t a box score champion. He has gifts to bestow, but it takes great care to highlight those and build a market. Perhaps Team JaMychal will effectively do that. Perhaps the NBA’s front offices will all think they can pry Green from Memphis with early fat offers.

Instead, I think Green will be the annual restricted free agent who sits in limbo as the incumbent team with matching rights waits for the market to be set while other teams refuse to let their cap space be tied up so early in free agency given that it’s likely the incumbent team will match. The ol’ Josh Childress.

Eventually, Green will stay in Memphis.

Remember when the Nuggets traded a first-round pick and Jusuf Nurkic for the right to pay Plumlee? Good times. He feels like an Indiana Pacer eventually.

A sizeable three-year deal to remain in Miami for Dion. Let’s say $60 million. This is a playoff team.

Serge Ibaka’s an interesting free agent case. Toronto didn’t give up much to land him, but with Lowry likely to be quite expensive, it’s going to be hard to justify spending big on Ibaka in free agency. Denver could really use a defender next to Nikola Jokic and has been swinging hard for high-end free agents in recent years. This could be their catch.

I’m not convinced OKC will ink aging players until Sam Presti gets Westbrook’s answer on an extension. If the answer is no — as I suspect it will be — there’s no reason to sign Gay. But if the Clippers keep Griffin, they could find some space to carve out for a scoring wing. Don’t underestimate the Kings’ appetite to take on Jamal Crawford’s contract for a high-character veteran presence. (Regardless of Gay’s landing spot, Crawford seems a prime trade option; the Sixers are another potential option.)

He’s so not the new Orlando front office’s type, but they need a real lead guard and he’s a fairly young one-time All-Star without Jrue Holiday’s injury history.

Run it back! Run it back!

We saw Van Gundy ink up Drummond a year ago. He should probably do the same with KCP, even if he eventually wants to burn it all down.

With CP3 off the table, I don’t think the Spurs have a huge move in them this summer. But they’ll keep their powder dry going forward.

Some team will take a chance on Jeff Green. (It will not go well.)

There is danger in these waters!

This isn’t even really possible with the salary cap, but both George Hill and Milwaukee have a type.

I’m pretty sure Joe Ingles was a late-1980s Sacramento King.

The Warriors are going to decide they can’t afford another Shaun Livingston contract, and Cleveland will scoop him up with whatever exception they can convince him to take. He, LeBron, and Kevin Love will be responsible for a Post-Up Renaissance that will take over the league.