MLB trade rumor grade: Lance Lynn to the Royals?

Hello, and welcome to a new series in which we grade trade rumors from around Major League Baseball. The goal isn’t to start ranking the rumormongers by their hits and misses, but to figure out if a rumor makes sense for both teams involved. The more likely a rumor is to make you turn your head like a confused labrador retriever, the more likely it is to deserve a letter grade.

First up, we have a curious one from Bob Nightengale, who comes out of nowhere from the top rope with this one:

Forget the part about Sonny Gray, who is young and cheap enough to be of interest to almost every team. Focus on the Royals, Cardinals, and Lance Lynn.

(Also, ignore the part where Lynn’s name isn’t mentioned once in the article. If it’s in a tweet, it’s canon. This is a real rumor now.)

A piece to help them win now and win later. Nightengale writes that the Cardinals aren’t really sure what they want to do at the deadline:

The St. Louis Cardinals, just like the Pirates, don’t necessarily want to surrender their playoff hopes. But they’re realistic. They are caught in no-man’s land. They’re really not in the NL Central race, but not out of it, either, simply loitering.

That means it’s not especially likely that they would want to deal Lynn — a pending free agent with a strong 3.40 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery — for prospects and prospects alone. Every team can use more prospects, but I’m not sure if the Cardinals are interested in taking that kind of short-term hit.

Consider that the Cardinals have Luke Weaver currently demolishing Triple-A, with Marco Gonzales also doing well. And if they get in a real pickle, they can also move Tyler Lyons, overqualified long reliever, back to the rotation. The Cardinals have rotation depth, just like they always do.

So a deal that moves a pending free agent for prospects who can help them get what they really need, like a closer, setup man, or left fielder in a three-way trade? Now we’re talking. This makes a whole bunch of sense, especially if they’re confident that Weaver can pitch as well as Lynn right away.

It doesn’t have to be a three-way trade, either. The prospects coming back for Lynn just have to make them feel better about losing whatever prospects they ship out for bullpen/outfield help.

The Royals might have the most urgency of any team in baseball. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jason Vargas, and Lorenzo Cain are all going to be free agents after the season. Even if they can afford to sign them all — which they probably can’t — that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. This is probably the last run with this core. Win now, or forever hold your peace.

The Royals could use a starting pitcher or two, but they don’t have the prospects (or the inclination) to go after a cost-controlled fella like Gray. They can afford a rental. That’s all they should bother with.

Lynn has quietly been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball, with an adjusted ERA of 130 (2.99 ERA) over his last three seasons combined. He’s almost certainly better than Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy, the two starters the Royals dumped money on during their last win-now frenzy, and he isn’t likely to cost something silly, like Hunter Dozier.

If the Royals aren’t going to win for a while, they probably wouldn’t mind giving up some prospects from the middle of their top 10 for a three-month rental who could help them get back to the postseason.

On the other hand, they’re just .500 and they’ll have a dozen holes to fill this offseason. Every young, cheap player is sacred.

I’ll give this one a solid B- because it makes a little sense for both teams. It loses points for a) not being mentioned in the danged article at all, and b) that part where the Royals dip into their farm system right the season before they’ll need their farm system more than ever.

It’s not likely to happen, but none of them are. At least we can grade just how likely they should be.