Cardinals trade Marco Gonzales to Mariners for Tyler O’Neill

The Cardinals and Mariners made a trade on Friday that wasn’t exactly a blockbuster. It isn’t likely to be mentioned in the sports segment of the local 7 p.m. news. The local papers might have a write-up, but it won’t be on the front page of the sports section. The players in the deal are moving between Tacoma and Memphis, so you can understand the lack of attention.

But Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzales is a fascinating trade with long-term implications for both teams. It’s a shame there aren’t more of these kinds of deals.

O’Neill was the No. 38 prospect in baseball before the season started, according to Baseball America. He’s a 22-year-old right-handed outfielder with power. Gobs of power. He’s listed at 5’11, which means he’s likely shorter than that, but he was one of the better power-hitting prospects in the minors. After hitting 32 home runs in the Cal League when he was 20, he followed that up with 24 homers in Double-A, and he already had 19 in 396 plate appearances this year in Triple-A. He was progressing nicely, with few hiccups.

Gonzales, 25, was the No. 50 prospect in baseball before the 2015 season started, but he quickly lost his rookie eligibility after soaring through the minors. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, though, and the Cardinals didn’t really have a spot for him. He spent most of this season as an overqualified starter in Triple-A.

The reason both teams made the trade is obvious: Both teams are kinda sorta contending, but not really, but kinda sorta, so if they were going to address a need, it couldn’t be something that damaged their long-term aspirations. The Mariners’ rotation is currently a sentient bucket filled with severed limbs and digits, and they needed a pitcher. The Cardinals were looking for an outfielder, hopefully a young one, because of the confusing seasons from Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty.

The Mariners could have traded for Marco Estrada, and the Cardinals could have traded for J.D. Martinez, but this was a way for both teams to get what they wanted for the present and future. The Cardinals had so many options for the rotation, they couldn’t squeeze Gonzales in, and the emergence of Ben Gamel and Mitch Haniger helped the Mariners feel more comfortable trading O’Neill. It was the relative youth and depth of both teams that allowed them to do this.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict how this trade will go: O’Neill will hit 40 home runs for the Cardinals and make at least three All-Star teams, whereas Gonzales will confuse the Mariners and miss extended stretches of time while the team screws up around him. This is not based on scouting or stats or logic of any kind. This is based on the Cardinals being the Cardinals, and the Mariners being the Mariners.

The worst part is that Mariners fans won’t even send me angry emails for writing that. They know. It makes me feel uncomfortable.

On the other hand, we’re in a post-Cubs world, in which curses are a devalued currency. Gonzales has always impressed me, and he could be a low-cost fit for the Mariners rotation for years. In theory, I think this is a great trade for both sides, with both teams turning a logjam into a fix for the current roster.

In practice, I don’t trust either of these teams, but in very different ways. Be vigilant, friends.