Floyd Mayweather will knock out Conor McGregor in the 3rd round

I firmly believe Floyd Mayweather has complete control of Saturday’s fight against Conor McGregor. I don’t think a novice stands a chance against an expert, and I’ve seen too many failed cross-combat sport attempts to believe McGregor would stand a chance against an average professional boxer, let alone one of the better fighters of the century.

I 100 percent believe Mayweather could knock him out in the first minute if he wanted to, because that’s what happens when you put a seasoned, undefeated professional against a newcomer. But that’s not what’s going to happen: I’m pretty sure Mayweather’s gonna knock him out in the third round.

I think I’m right, but that doesn’t mean you have to. Plenty of smart people and tons of angry ones disagree with me. I’ve also been wrong before on sports predictions, and will again. But let me at least tell you why I think this.

When James Tomey, another one of the better boxers of this generation, attempted to make a switch to MMA in 2010, he, like McGregor, faced a former champion towards the end of his career (Randy Couture, who would fight just once more in his career). Couture took Tomey down to the ground just 15 seconds into the fight, and won via submission just 3:19 in.

Tomey isn’t the only example, but he’s the most high profile: former boxer Ray Mercer had failed attempts at MMA and kickboxing, former boxer Art Jimmerson also lost his only MMA fight in the first round, UFC welterweight Donald Cerrone was knocked out in the second round of his only boxing match.

There are counter examples UFC fans will point to: Vitor Belfort and Anderson Silva have each won boxing matches. But both fighters they beat were also debut boxers who never fought again (the one time Silva went up against a boxer with actual experience, he lost).

That’s why I think Mayweather has complete control. Here’s where the third-round knockout prediction comes from.

If Mayweather knocks him out in the first round, it immediately exposes the fight for the farce that it is. Mayweather’s gone to great lengths to make this fight seem more legitimate than it is, and a victory that early will only bolster claims of it all being a sham.

Just look at the great lengths he went to talk to McGregor up at their last press conference:

Conor McGregor had a hell of a career, still got a hell of a career, he’s a hell of a fighter, he’s a standup guy, he’s a tough competitor. It’s not gonna be an easy fight, it’s gonna be blood, sweat and tears Saturday. That’s what we wanna give the fans, that’s what we wanna give the people all around the world.

If Mayweather goes the more conventional rout (based on expectations and his history) and wins by decision, it’ll call his legacy (perhaps the only thing more important than money to him) into serious question. The “greatest boxer of his generation” let a newcomer from a different sport last 12 rounds against him?

Instead, I think Floyd will go for an acceptably early knockout, in an attempt to preserve his reputation as the greatest fighter alive without tarnishing the reputation of the fight itself. If he doesn’t, it’ll be because he doesn’t want to, for whatever reason that may be.

Or, you know, we can hope for the best.