Super Bowl 52 between the Patriots and Eagles is less than a week away, and gambling action on prop bets is picking up steam. People will bet on the action that will take place from kickoff to the final whistle, but the Super Bowl brings with it a host of off-beat prop bets to keep you entertained.
Early action on coin toss Super Bowl prop bet suggests more confidence in ‘tails never fails’
Recent history might cost people some money.
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
The coin toss is generally viewed as a 50/50 proposition, and that might be why people decide to bet on it. It’s hard to get anything close to 50/50 odds, so why not take your best bet there? There is actually some strategy to be found from a mathematical analysis of coin tosses, but for purposes of the Super Bowl, it’s effectively 50/50.
That being said, when in doubt, “tails never fails” could be the choice of confident bettors. Caesars Palace released some early numbers with five days remaining until the Super Bowl. More people are betting on heads, but the money bet is even.
What does this mean? Well, more bettors are choosing to go away from tails, but more money is being bet on tails. People could think “tails never fails” is the answer, but it is more likely due to recent history.
The last three Super Bowl coin tosses have come up tails. Although each coin toss is a unique event, there is a recency bias that impacts people. It is similar in nature to people telling themselves one of the two colors will turn up on the roulette wheel because of a recent run for that color. Of course, others would say that the other color is due since it has not hit in a while.
They are all unique events however, and this kind of strategy is why Las Vegas keeps building new casinos.
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