Bill O’Brien’s mistakes almost cost the Texans a win, until Frank Reich let him off the hook

The Houston Texans got their first win of 2018 with a game-winning field in overtime to beat the Indianapolis Colts. But the result felt more like the Texans did just enough not to blow a game they should’ve won much earlier. They were saved by the Colts handing over a win on a silver platter.

The much-needed win for Bill O’Brien — his first after nine straight Texans losses — drew plenty of criticism.

For O’Brien, the problem was that his hyper-conservative decision-making helped erase a double-digit lead in the final minutes of the game and allowed the Colts to force overtime. For Frank Reich, it was the opposite. His hyper-aggressive decision in overtime was a reckless call and dealt the Colts a loss.

For most of the game, it was a good day for O’Brien and the Texans offense. The team has had difficulties getting Deshaun Watson back to the form that had him shredding the NFL early in 2017, but the Texans looked to be on their way to getting back on track with three first-half touchdowns.

It helped that the defensive line combination of Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt was wrecking shop and making things a nightmare for Andrew Luck.

But when the Colts came climbing back with back-to-back touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, O’Brien made several questionable calls.

Indianapolis tied things up with 45 seconds left in regulation and the Texans took over on their own 25-yard line with a chance to break the tie. They had no timeouts after using their last one to unsuccessfully stop the Colts’ two-point conversion, and needed about 40 yards to have a realistic shot at a game-winning field goal.

So why on Earth did the Texans open their drive with a run play? Houston gave the ball to Alfred Blue over and over on first down late in the game, this time the most questionable time. It went for just 4 yards, and it cost Houston 20 seconds before the offense could line up and get another snap.

Watson connected on a 30-yard pass to DeAndre Hopkins on the next play and rushed down the field to spike the ball and stop the clock with six seconds left. Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 59-yard try — a few yards beyond his career long of 55 yards — was no good. The Texans even left one second on the clock to give Luck a shot at a Hail Mary, which they batted down in the end zone.

So overtime happened instead. Would Fairbairn have made a kick if the Texans had time for another pass or two or three to get closer? Who knows, but more clock certainly could’ve helped.

That wasn’t the only silly call. The Texans’ commitment to wide receiver screen passes has been a source of aggravation for many Houston fans. It has often looked like this:

In overtime, the Texans drove over 50 yards into the red zone, but then the curse of the screen pass came back to haunt them again. On a second-and-11 from the Colts’ 12-yard line, Watson threw a 1-yard pass to Keke Coutee that never had a shot at breaking free. It set up a third down that the Texans couldn’t convert.

But O’Brien had one more mistake left in him when a sack for Clowney pushed the Colts back into a third-and-21 situation. Instead of calling timeout to save enough time to drive for a game-winning field goal, O’Brien watched the clock tick from 1:15 to 36 seconds before Indianapolis’ next play.

All that would’ve been enough to keep the Texans out of the win column for another week, if not for a bad mistake by Reich.

Part of the reason Reich has a head coaching job, if not the entire reason, is that he was fearless during his final month as offensive coordinator for the Eagles.

With backup quarterback Nick Foles leading the way for Philadelphia, Reich tailored the offense to his new passer’s strengths and went for the Patriots’ throat in Super Bowl 52.

So maybe nobody should’ve been surprised by Reich’s decision to go for it on a fourth-and-4 on the Colts’ own 43-yard line. Reich told everyone way back during his introductory press conference in February that this was how his tenure would look:

The fourth-down pass fell incomplete, and three plays later, the Texans kicked a game-winning field goal.

The problem with Reich’s call is that there’s a point when bold becomes ill-advised. It was a poor decision made mostly because Reich hated the idea of finishing with a tie.

He and his players defended the call after the game. Reich even said he’d do it again if given the chance.

Despite the first-year coach’s enthusiasm, math says it just plain wasn’t a good call. Via ESPN:

The Colts’ 4th down attempt was not analytically sound. It was a net -5.1% Win Probability decision (counting a tie as half a win). They needed a 58% chance of conversion for it to be worth the risk, and league average conversion rate in that region of the field is 46%.

By getting the stop, the Texans’ win probability launched from 52.5 percent to 92.1 percent.

O’Brien did more things that hurt Houston’s chance to win, but Reich’s mistake proved to the biggest one. And in a game filled with questionable coaching calls, the Texans escaped with a win that should’ve been much easier to secure.