5 reasons to watch the Patriots take on the Colts on ‘Thursday Night Football’

Are you ready to watch some New England Patriots football? Tonight, the Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football to kick off a stretch of four primetime games in five weeks for New England. If you were thinking, “man, I really want to see more Patriots games in primetime,” you’re in luck.

But you weren’t really thinking that, were you?

Tonight, we’ll get a look into how Josh Gordon is coming along as a member of the Patriots and how Julian Edelman fares in his first game back after a four-game suspension to start the year. Plus, Andrew Luck will be without quite a few weapons as wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle, and running back Marlon Mack have all been ruled out. How will Luck do without those guys on the field?

Here are five reasons to watch the 2-2 Patriots take on the 1-3 Colts on Fox’s second Thursday Night Football broadcast of the season.

1) We still don’t know just how dominant the 2018 Patriots are.

People were starting to worry about the Patriots ... until they easily beat the Dolphins 38-7 last week. But when you check out the numbers, there are some things to be concerned about.

The offense ranks 30th in turnover rate when backed up, 27th and 26th in third-and-medium and third-and-short success rate, 28th in marginal explosiveness, 26th in standard downs marginal efficiency, and 30th in both passing marginal explosiveness and standard downs marginal explosiveness. And those are just some of the lows on offense. On defense, the team is struggling in third-and-medium and third-and-short success rate (29th and 26th in the league respectively), blitz downs sack rate (25th), field position (28th), and points per scoring opportunity (26th). You can check out a full by-the-numbers report on the Patriots (and how they stack up against the Colts) here.

Tom Brady ranks 20th in the NFL in passing yards and eighth in touchdowns. Those don’t sound like Brady numbers. That said, you can never really worry about a Bill Belcihick-Brady team, can you? They’ll find their way.

2) Is Andrew Luck back to pre-injury Andrew Luck

You know who has more yards, the same amount of touchdowns, a higher completion percentage, and fewer sacks than Brady this season? Luck.

In his return from shoulder surgery and after missing a full year of football, Luck has gone 125 of 186 (67.2 completion percentage), recorded 1,126 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions, and has accumulated a 92.7 passer rating.

Is he back to his pre-injury form? Luck is averaging just 6.1 yards per play, which is the lowest such number of his career. But, it looks like he’s getting back up to speed and heading toward his pre-injury level of play. We’ll be looking to see if he takes another step forward tonight; though it will be hard without Hilton.

3) The Colts rookies have been impressing.

In Week 1 against the Bengals, Indianapolis started five rookies: linebackers Darius Leonard, and Skai Moore, left guard Quenton Nelson, offensive tackle Braden Smith, and running back Jordan Wilkins. It marked the most rookies to start a game for the Colts in the Indianapolis era. And the rookies are actually playing quite well.

Leonard has led the Colts in tackles in every game this season and finished with 13 stops (eight solo), one tackle for loss, and one sack last week against Houston. He actually leads the NFL in tackles by a wide margin with 54. Miami’s Kiko Alonso ranks second with 46.

Leonard and defensive end Margus Hunt rank sixth in the NFL (tied with a big group of players) with four sacks this season.

As for Nelson, the Colts’ No. 6 overall draft pick has allowed two sacks, one hit, and seven hurries this season, so there have been some struggles as he adjusts to the NFL, but he’s playing pretty well to start the year at left guard.

And, Wilkins leads the team in rushing yards with 136 (3.6 yards per carry) but that’s largely due to injuries at the position. Mack has been banged up all season, which continues this week as he won’t play tonight.

4) These teams share a lot of history.

The Colts vs. Patriots rivalry is long-standing, despite the teams currently playing in different divisions. The Patriots and the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts played twice each year from 1970-2001 as members of the AFC East (with the exception of the 1982 strike season). Since realignment in 2002 when the Colts moved to the AFC South, the teams played in the regular season every year for 10 straight seasons from 2003-2012, plus there have been a variety of playoff games in the years since. And of course ... there was the infamous Deflategate game following the 2014 NFL season, which came in the AFC Championship game on Jan. 18, 2015; the Patriots won. Overall, tonight’s game is the 81st meeting between the two teams, with the Patriots leading the series 47-28 in the regular season and a 4-1 in the postseason.

There are also many former Colts on the Patriots and former Patriots on the Colts. Colts defensive end Jabaal Sheard played for the Patriots from 2015-16, cornerback Kenny Moore II spent time with New England during the 2017 offseason, backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett was selected by the Patriots in the third round (91st overall) of the 2016 NFL Draft and was traded to the Colts, kicker Adam Vinatieri played for New England from 1996- 2005. Colts special teams Coordinator Bubba Ventrone played for the Patriots from 2007-08 and also coached with them from 2015-17, assistant special teams coach Frank Ross served five seasons (2011-12, 2015-17) in player personnel with the Patriots.

And as for members of the Patriots who were Colts, head coach Bill Belichick coached for the Baltimore Colts in 1975, offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia coached for the Colts from 1989-1990, tight end Dwayne Allen was selected by the Colts in the third round (64th overall) of the 2012 NFL Draft and played for the Colts from 2012-16. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett was selected by the Colts in the first round (29th overall) of the 2015 NFL Draft and played for Indianapolis from 2015-16. Defensive lineman Lawrence Guy played for Indianapolis from 2012-13 and defensive end John Simon played for the Colts in 2017.

On top of that, Colts tight end Jack Doyle and Patriots offensive lineman Ted Karras were high school teammates and won a championship together at Cathedral High School in Indianapolis.

5) Patriots fans are much more confident this week than last.

This year, SB Nation is polling fans of all 32 teams on a weekly basis to gauge confidence levels in all fans, among other things.

An impressive 73 percent of Patriots fans are confident in their team heading into Week 5. That’s actually a 42 percent jump from last week, the biggest jump up in confidence of any NFL fanbase this week. Meanwhile, and much more surprisingly, 92 percent of Colts fans are confident in their team. Is that some false hope or do fans in Indy have reason to be so sure of the Colts? That’s actually a two percent jump in confidence from last week, so an overtime loss to the 1-3 Texans made Colts fans more confident in their team. That said, Colts fans do not believe they’re going to beat the Patriots in primetime.

Stampede Blue FanPulse: Colts will lose by 8
Pats Pulpit FanPulse: Patriots will win by 11
Odds: Patriots -10.5 (per Bovada)