Why do the 76ers NEED to trade Markelle Fultz now?

Trade rumors have been swirling around Markelle Fultz for the past week, in part because of reports that the young guard would like a fresh start somewhere else and in part because of reports that the Sixers are now presuming he won’t be a part of their future. Meanwhile, Fultz isn’t actually playing: he’s seeing more specialists about his shoulder and his wrist, injuries no one seems convinced are real.

There’s no question that Fultz’s career is in a bad place. The Sixers declared him a starter in the preseason even though that move would break up one of the league’s most effective five-man units by pushing J.J. Redick to the bench. As Philadelphia struggled, Fultz had some odd moments, and the behind-the-scenes drama regarding his shooting mechanics, confidence, and shoulder continued to spiral.

Eventually, the Sixers traded for Jimmy Butler, which pushed Fultz back to the bench. He was there four games before slipping into inactive status. Now no one knows when he’ll play again, or why exactly he isn’t playing now. There’s a cover story about an injury that no one really believes. There’s always a cover story.

That’s how we got to the present with the trade rumors and the wide-held belief that the Sixers should give up on Fultz, cut their sunk costs, and see what he might bring in return on the trade market.

But what if that’s the wrong resolution?

The best-case scenario is that the Sixers hold on to Fultz, whatever is wrong is fixed, Fultz gets back on the court, contributes meaningfully to a top-three Eastern Conference roster, and rehabilitates his NBA future. The worst-case scenario is that the Sixers hold on to Fultz, he continues to offer no on-court value, and they decline a future team option before his rookie deal expires, a la 2013 No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett.

Now compare that worst case scenario with the trade packages the Sixers are likely to draw for Fultz now. Is Philadelphia really going to be able to trade Fultz for a helpful player who doesn’t burn up valuable cap space, given where the young guard’s value is right now (rock bottom)?

Is it worth trading a dream that Fultz can shake off the whatever and live up to some portion of his considerable potential?

Back to Bennett: Fultz at the University of Washington wasn’t anything like Anthony Bennett at UNLV. Bennett was a shock No. 1 pick; Fultz was destined for the No. 1 pick from high school on. Bennett showed some potential as a springy, explosive forward. Fultz showed real promise as a multi-skilled guard with range, playmaking ability, and defensive skills. Bennett had upside. Fultz was can’t-miss.

There’s a fine line between throwing good money (and time) after bad and being patient. Given the state of Fultz’s value and the lack of time he’s had to integrate with the new Butler-infused rotation, it feels as though the Sixers should still look to be patient.

What’s the worst that could happen? Fultz’s really low trade value could drop to really, really low? That wouldn’t seem to matter, because the Sixers are winning games with him in street clothes. At this point, there’s no evidence they need a productive player in place of Fultz to meet their goals (contending for the East crown). Every bit helps, of course, but the trade-off doesn’t seem to be there right now.

Of course, the Sixers have more of an inside view as to how the Fultz saga impacts the team, and there’s something to be said about reputation protection for a new general manager in Elton Brand. The further distanced Brand is from what looks like dysfunction, the better for his management career. Trading Fultz even for bit parts would let Brand escape responsibility for the disaster that has been the Fultz experience. The question is whether that’s more important to Brand than what is best for the team.

An alternate vision for Fultz’s future: once he’s cleared for basketball again, the team could assign him to the G League and say it wants to get him lots of minutes to rehab. If he shows out, bring him up at an opportune time in the schedule (read: road trip) and see how it goes. If it goes poorly, get back on the phone with potential trade partners.

But there’s no rush here and no upside in cutting bait ASAP instead of in February or next summer. The differences in Fultz’s trade value should be marginal because his current trade value is barely marginal.

Because Fultz is a second-year player, the Sixers don’t need his approval to assign him to the Delaware 87ers. They do need his agent to play ball since there is injury looming over all this — the Sixers would not be wise to strong-arm this — but the case is pretty straightforward. If Fultz truly wants a fresh start, he should prove he can play in the G League to get more NBA teams interested.

There’s no easy answer here, of course. But that includes the idea that the Sixers should trade Fultz ASAP. It’s just not that simple.