The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is wide open because no team can tank right

For the first time in over a year, both of the NFL’s Northern California teams won on the same day. The San Francisco 49ers beat the Denver Broncos on the back of a huge first half from tight end George Kittle, and the Oakland Raiders edged the Pittsburgh Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was, for some reason, sidelined for most of the second half.

Both improved to 3-10 on the year. But that probably isn’t a good thing.

The 49ers and Raiders would benefit much more from losing at this point. Both are long eliminated from playoff contention and profit from every loss that puts them a step closer to a top draft pick. They’re now tied with the Arizona Cardinals — who got an ill-advised win over the Packers in Week 13 — for the worst record in the NFL.

It’s supposed to be tanking season, but none of them are doing a very good job of it.

Of course, it doesn’t benefit the players much to mail it in. Roster spots aren’t easy to secure in the NFL — particularly on bad teams — and players have a limited amount of snaps to prove the belong or that they deserve a big contract.

That makes tanking in the NFL a little difficult to organize. Just last year, the Jets could’ve saved themselves some second-round picks by tanking better and avoiding the need to trade up to get Sam Darnold. Now we’re close to finding out who can help, or hurt, their position in the 2019 NFL Draft.

With three weeks left to play, there are three 3-10 teams and four 4-9 teams. The tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule (in parentheses), so if the season ended today, the top seven picks would sort out like this:

For now, the 49ers and Cardinals have the same exact strength of schedule. The top pick is currently in line to go to San Francisco, because records in divisional play is an additional tiebreaker for any two teams in the same division. The 49ers are 0-4 in NFC West play, and the Cardinals are 2-2 (with both of those wins coming over the 49ers).

But there’s plenty of time for the strength of schedule tiebreaker to tilt in another direction. It’s even possible for the Raiders to make up the gap.

The bigger question is which team which has the best chance of finishing the season without another win — except the win that comes with locking up the top pick.

A month ago, the Raiders looked like the likeliest to finish at the top of the 2019 NFL Draft order. Not because of a tiebreaker, but because they’re truly awful at almost everything — including tanking, evidently.

Their win Sunday came after Steelers backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs played most of the second half and finished with a 12.0 passer rating against a defense with zero dangerous pass rushers. Even then, the Raiders were fortunate that Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell missed both of his field goals — including a 40-yard try at the end of regulation that could’ve sent the game to overtime but never had a chance because he slipped.

The Raiders are No. 29 in points scored and No. 31 in points allowed. They finish the year against the Bengals, Broncos, and Chiefs — games that are potentially winnable, especially if Kansas City is playing backups in the season finale.

But even in the more plausible scenario that Oakland loses all three, it’s hard to imagine both the 49ers and Cardinals finding another win.

San Francisco ends the season against the Seahawks, Bears, and Rams — three teams all in line for playoff spots. Arizona’s schedule is a little easier with a matchup against the Falcons in Week 15, but it closes out the season with games against the Rams and Seahawks.

One or both of those NFC West teams will probably finish with three consecutive losses.

If both do, it’ll likely come down to the small differences in their schedules to decide who picks No. 1. They each had the same slate of opponents — except the 49ers played the 5-8 Giants and 5-8 Buccaneers, while the Cardinals played 6-7 Washington and the 4-9 Falcons. The final three weeks will probably break the strength of schedule tie.

The relatively high strength of the schedules for the 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders means if any of them win again, they’ll likely lose ground in the draft order.

Each of the four teams behind the trio at the top — especially the Falcons and Jets — could conceivably finish with the lowest strength of schedule.

If any of those teams go 0-3 in the next three weeks, they’ll have a shot at the No. 1 pick — or at least close to it.

Four 5-8 teams round out the top 11, though none of them — the Bucs, Giants, Lions, and Bengals — has a realistic chance of jumping all the way to the top of the draft order. For most of the season, it looked like the Giants would’ve been another one of those teams in the mix, but four wins in the last five weeks erased that possibility and has even kept longshot postseason hopes alive.

Last year, the first pick in the NFL Draft was clinched in Week 16 by the winless Cleveland Browns. This season, it will go down to the wire because the teams that would be better off losing keep squeaking out wins.

This year, the 49ers and Cardinals — and probably the Raiders too — aren’t in the market for a quarterback. Instead it looks like Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa and Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver are the favorites to go first overall.

Between the intrigue of a draft without quarterback-needy teams at the top, and a season with no team stinking it up en route to a 1-15 record or worse, there’s actual draft order drama with three weeks to play. The race for the Super Bowl is fun, but who doesn’t love a contest to see who’s the best at being the worst?