It turns out beating the Patriots is bad for you now

When assessing the stability of the 2018 New England Patriots, the first and most valid point damning Bill Belichick’s postseason seaworthiness are his team’s losses. The Patriots have lost four games this fall en route to a 9-4 record. That isn’t especially noteworthy, but the fact New England got absolutely rocked in three of those defeats and stunned in the fourth — and by four teams currently standing either completely outside or on the periphery of the playoff picture — is.

The Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins, and Titans all raised expectations by beating New England by double-digits this fall. Those clubs quickly scuttled any goodwill from these headlining victories by plummeting back to Earth in the weeks that followed.

Jacksonville briefly became AFC favorites after a 2-0 start that included a victory over the team that kept them from the Super Bowl last fall. But those hopes quickly gave way to a seven-game losing streak and confirmation the Jaguars are still, indeed, the Jaguars.

The Lions appeared to validate their decision to hire former Pats defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as head coach when he led his club to a 26-10 win in Week 3. That momentum pushed Detroit out to a 3-3 record, but a 1-5 skid in the weeks since have effectively eliminated Patricia from postseason contention.

Another first-year coach with Belichick connections, Mike Vrabel, hung 34 points on New England in a blowout win, then scored a combined 27 points in follow-up losses to the Colts and Texans. The Dolphins used the Miami Miracle to beat the Patriots at home for the fourth time in the past five years, then fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter of a blowout against the Vikings one week later.

The three teams that have beaten the Patriots have finished their matchups with New England with a .556 winning percentage. They’ve gone on to record a .333 record afterward. These clubs leave their season-defining victories playing like the Baltimore Ravens. In the games that have followed, they’re playing slightly better than the New York Jets.

Two of the three teams who have beaten the Patriots have a deep understanding of an organization whose playcalling has changed over time, but whose culture has not. Matt Patricia spent 14 seasons in New England, working his way up from offensive assistant to defensive coordinator and earning three Super Bowl rings in the process. He knew exactly how to attack the defense he’d overseen, and he even had an inside man — former Patriot tailback LeGarrette Blount (and to a much lesser extent, backup quarterback Matt Cassel) — who could exploit it.

Defensively, his knowledge of the Patriots’ gameplan led Detroit to its finest performance in four years.

Vrabel was never a coach in Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, but he played key roles in both the team’s defense and offense in his eight seasons with the team, the last coming in 2008. He was entirely eager to show up his former coach, especially when he called his own QB throwback trick play one series after the Patriots threw a rare pass to Tom Brady.

While he lacked the recent intimacy of the team’s playbook, he also had an extra gear most of the Patriots’ opponents don’t — a handful of former Patriots looking to make a statement against their former team. For Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler, and especially Dion Lewis, a showdown with New England was about proving they were worth more than the notoriously thrifty coach was willing to spend.

Lewis didn’t have an amazing game, gaining just 68 total yards. Ryan and Butler combined for 10 tackles, one sack, and one pass defensed. But their energy was contagious, and it sent shockwaves across two rosters which emerged from their games with New England with resume-topping victories.

That “prove it” mentality isn’t limited to players. Vrabel and Patricia had to prove they were immune from the curse that rendered past branches of Belichick’s coaching tree fruitless. These perceived slights and motivations can be enough to turn a regular-season game into a battle of utmost importance on a personal level. For the Lions and Titans, it helped create an advantage over a Patriots team that wasn’t ready to get punched in the face on the road.

The Jaguars’ dominance is different, but still understandable. Jacksonville was one quarter away from winning the AFC title before Brady led the Patriots back from the brink of defeat and to his eighth Super Bowl. Head coach Doug Marrone learned from that experience and welcomed the Patriots to Jacksonville with a steady diet of pocket-collapsing pass rushing, a proven plan when it comes to beating the veteran QB.

That, coupled with an offensive strategy that covered up some of Blake Bortles’ many warts, carried the Jags to a 31-20 win that set the tone for what looked like a second-straight winning season. Unfortunately for Marrone, these strategies haven’t proven sustainable — especially the Bortles part.

And the Dolphins? They’ve just found a way to make South Beach Tom Brady’s Waterloo repeatedly over the past 17 seasons. But Ryan Tannehill’s uneven brilliance swung back to the other side of his bell curve in a 108-yard performance in Minnesota.

New England has won nine games this season. Six of the teams they’ve played over that stretch are sitting at .500 or better on the season. Three of those wins, over the Bears, Texans, and Chiefs, came against teams who are currently leading their division. The other three teams, the Dolphins, Vikings, and Colts, are all one win removed from either being in position to earn a Wild Card berth or being tied for a shot at a Wild Card berth.

While the four teams the Patriots have lost to have a .385 winning percentage this season in games that didn’t involve New England. The nine teams they’ve beaten have a .577 winning percentage outside of games against Belichick’s team.

That bodes well for the Patriots, a team with a 9-2 postseason record the past four years. New England has sharpened itself against the toughest competition on its schedule through 13 games. That didn’t help much in Miami, but it could be a boon for a matchup against a suddenly-desperate Steelers team in Week 15.