5 teams to watch before 2018 NFL free agency starts

The NFL offseason is underway, and we’re about to start seeing plenty of moves as teams prepare to line themselves up for free agency and then the NFL draft.

Some teams might have players to cut, contracts to restructure, or franchise tag decisions to make before March 14. It could be a combination of any of the three, which could drastically alter a franchise’s circumstances for the start of the new league year.

There are a handful of NFL teams that are worth watching more than others prior to the start of free agency. Here’s what you need to look for during the next month as teams try to get a head start on the offseason.

Jon Gruden’s first season back as Raiders head coach is going to be one of the most closely watched storylines in the NFL during 2018. While the season starts in September, how his team ultimately shapes up in seven months starts now — and it’s going to look different.

Michael Crabtree has been one of the more recognizable players on the team since he signed in 2015, but he’s now a candidate to get cut. He’s not the only one, either. There is also Marshawn Lynch. His salary is supposed to go from $2.7 million to $6 million in 2018. He turns 32 in April, and there’s a strong likelihood he could get the axe.

While Crabtree and Lynch are up in the air, cornerback Sean Smith seems like a given — he has a $8.5 million cap number and is dealing with felony counts of assault and battery. Another cornerback, David Amerson, has already been released by the team.

Bruce Irvin’s name has also come up for the Raiders, as he’s scheduled to count $8.25 million against the cap next season. He’s still a good player, but if the Raiders feel they can improve elsewhere on the defensive side of the football, the 30-year-old Irvin could be expendable.

We also don’t know how much control Gruden is going to utilize yet. This first offseason in his return will be a learning experience for everybody, but there’s no question he’ll at least have influence on the Raiders’ decision making — and he could want to put his stamp on the roster early.

Pittsburgh’s offseason will hinge on one man: Le’Veon Bell. The All-Pro running back unhappily played his 2017 season under the franchise tag, earning $12.12 million for a season in which he led the league with 321 carries while adding a career-high 85 receptions. Now he wants the long-term deal he feels he’s earned, and he’s threatening to sit out 2018 if he doesn’t get it.

The Steelers can call his bluff by tagging him again this spring, but it will cost them about $14.54 million to do so for a single year of service and build an untenable tension to the two sides (see Cousins, Kirk). Bell has proven his value thanks to his role in one of the league’s scariest offenses. Now Pittsburgh has to decide whether to eschew its traditional rule of avoiding big-money guarantees in order to keep him.

The franchise will also have to fill the void blossoming linebacker Ryan Shazier left in the middle of the team’s defense. While he rehab is progressing impressively, and the Pro Bowler is reportedly walking with help, it’s unlikely he’ll see the gridiron in 2018 — or potentially ever again. Replacing the dynamic ability and leadership he brought to the Steelers’ growing defense won’t be easy and may take years to finish.

Not-so breaking news: the Denver Broncos need a quarterback! After their trio of Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, and Brock Osweiler couldn’t score enough points to give them a winning record behind a top-five defense, general manager John Elway is looking for answers.

That could come in the draft, and it could also come in soon-to-be free agent Kirk Cousins. The Broncos would have to make some roster cuts with $25.9 million in cap space, per Spotrac.

Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have both had their names surface in recent days as players who could be cut in order to make space for Cousins. However, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport doesn’t see that happening.

Von Miller is doing his part to get Cousins to Denver, but they’ve got some work to do. Vegas likes their chances, though.

The Vikings nearly went the distance in 2017 with Case Keenum under center, and he looked good while doing it. In 15 games, including 14 starts, Keenum completed 67.6 percent of his passes, threw for 3,547 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions.

It has put the Vikings in one of the more difficult positions of any team this offseason. Teddy Bridgewater is finally healthy and was seemingly going to be their future. But after Keenum’s 2017 season, they have a decision to make.

Using the franchise tag on Keenum allows the Vikings to see if his 2017 season really was just a flash in the pan by getting another season out of him to evaluate whether he’s worth a long-term deal.

They could also go the Tyrod Taylor route, as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell suggests:

What I’d do is give Keenum a long-term contract similar to the initial Tyrod Taylor extension in Buffalo under Doug Whaley. That deal was essentially a one-year pact with the ability to trigger a multiyear extension after the initial campaign. That structure would allow the Vikes to hand Keenum a raise and set up a possible long-term commitment without locking them in if Keenum declines.

If any Vikings quarterback is likely to get a multi-year deal, it’s going to be Bridgewater. The 2014 first-round pick is still just 25 years old, and if his recovery has gone well enough, he’s worth investing in.

The Vikings’ moves might also depend on whether they think they can get Cousins. Cousins has said he wants to win and was willing to make sacrifices in order to do so. There’s an argument to be made that if he wants to win immediately, there’s no better place than Minnesota with weapons like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs at his disposal.

Seattle missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2011 season, and while the wheels didn’t fall off on a nine-win team, the Seahawks are approaching a crossroads. The Legion of Boom is beginning to wilt, as age and injury forced a formidable defense out of the top 10 in both points and yards allowed for the first time since 2010. Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril, and Kam Chancellor all missed at least seven games last fall, and each will be:

a) expensive to retain — the trio will count $30.4 million against the cap next fall — and
b) at least 30 years old in 2018.

The first part is as important as the second. After accounting for draft picks, Seattle will only have approximately $6.5 million to spend this offseason. The team will have to make some difficult decisions when it comes to its long-tenured and still-effective defenders, especially with plenty of holes to fill on the offense. Russell Wilson’s one-man show — he was responsible for throwing or running for 37 of the team’s 38 offensive touchdowns — is even more impressive when you consider the perpetually porous group of blockers in front of him.

Will the Seahawks blow up their roster and rebuild to round out the Pete Carroll era? Or will the oldest coach in the NFL rally his veterans for one last ride? Seattle’s long list of tough decisions will make this an interesting March in the Pacific Northwest.