My final projection for 2018 is largely unchanged from this morning’s penultimate edition, even with two new entrants. Early in the afternoon, the Penn Quakers’ thrilling win over the Harvard Crimson gave them the Ivy League Tournament title and a projected spot as a 15 seed. Just a little less than an hour later, however, my Sunday morning bubble watch required some revision, as the Davidson Wildcats took the Atlantic 10 Tournament ‘s automatic bid by edging the Rhode Island Rams. That knocked someone out of the field, and while I suspect that will be the Arizona State Sun Devils, the Selection Committee may choose to bounce any of the other 16 teams I wrote about instead. It’s just that kind of year.
Bracketology 2018: Your final NCAA tournament projection is here
All that’s left to do now is wait.
The four No. 1 seeds are the same four teams I wrote about on Saturday, the Virginia Cavaliers (South), Villanova Wildcats (East), Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest) and Xavier Musketeers (West). At the other end of the at-large pool, the Oklahoma Sooners, Syracuse Orange, Texas Longhorns and USC Trojans fill the First Four. Here’s how I forecast the 2018 NCAA Tournament field shaking out.
1. South (left) and 2. East (right)
4. West (Left) and 3. Midwest (Right)
First Four
SOUTH (Automatic, Wed.) | EAST (Automatic, Tue.) | SOUTH (At-Large, Wed.) | EAST (At-Large, Tue.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Charlotte to play Virginia | To Pittsburgh to play Villanova | To Nashville to play Miami | To Dallas to play Houston |
| 16. LIU BROOKLYN (NEC) | 16. RADFORD (Big South) | 11. USC | 11. Oklahoma |
| 16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC) | 16. N.C. CENTRAL (MEAC) | 11. Texas | ↑11. Syracuse |
| KEY: ALL CAPS = clinched auto bid | * = new to bracket | ↑ = seed rising | ↓ = seed falling |
Rundown
LAST EIGHT IN | FIRST NINE OUT | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | Arizona State | Davidson | Arizona State |
| St. Bonaventure | Middle Tennessee | Penn | Harvard |
| Alabama | Saint Mary's | ||
| UCLA | Louisville | ||
| USC (Dayton) | Marquette | ||
| Oklahoma (Dayton) | Oklahoma State | ||
| Texas (Dayton) | Notre Dame | ||
| Syracuse (Dayton) | Baylor | ||
| Nebraska |
Bids by Conference
Conference | Bids | Teams (in Seed List Order) |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 9 | Virginia (auto bid), North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State, Syracuse (First Four) |
| SEC | 8 | Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky (auto bid), Arkansas, Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama |
| Big 12 | 7 | Kansas (auto bid), West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma (First Four), Texas (First Four) |
| Big East | 6 | Villanova (auto bid), Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton |
| Big Ten | 4 | Purdue, Michigan (auto bid), Michigan State, Ohio State |
| Pac-12 | 4 | Arizona (auto bid), UCLA, USC (First Four) |
| American | 3 | Cincinnati (auto bid), Wichita State, Houston |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Davidson (auto bid) |
| MW | 2 | Nevada, San Diego State (auto bid) |
| One-bid leagues | 23 |
With the Selection Committee’s increased inclusion of advanced metrics in their deliberations and a revamped system for defining quality wins and a deep bubble with plenty of flawed profiles, I’m expecting to miss multiple at-larges. However, these new data points will only help me improve my performance in future seasons. Change is good and it’s long past time for the Committee to up its game in terms of selecting and seeding the field of 68, but doing so means there’s going to be an adjustment period for those of us who attempt to forecast their work.
Once again, thank you all for reading throughout the 2017-18 season and enjoy March Madness!
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