What happened to last year’s biggest winners in NFL free agency?

Every year, some lucky teams lock up the biggest names on the market and fans and analysts crown them the winners of free agency. This year, the team that lands prized free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins should be near the top of the winners’ list. But splashy moves don’t guarantee success.

Sometimes it shakes out like it did for the Eagles’ “Dream Team” in 2011, when they signed Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Jason Babin in the offseason. They went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

But sometimes it works out like it did for the Eagles in 2017, when adding Alshon Jeffery, Chris Long, and even (or especially) backup quarterback Nick Foles helped them eventually deliver their first Super Bowl win.

It’s too early to tell who will be declared this year’s winners. Even more so, it’s too early to see know how that translates to the regular season.

But we can look back and see how things panned out for last year’s free agency winners. Here’s what happened to six of them:

Key free agent additions: WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Torrey Smith, RB LeGarrette Blount, DE Chris Long, QB Nick Foles

Expectations: Bleeding Green Nation, our Eagles site, was optimistic, mainly because Jeffery and Smith gave Carson Wentz actual weapons and filled the team’s biggest need going into 2017.

The Eagles were a little better in 2016 than most realize. The team is naturally bound to improve after suffering a lot of close losses last year. Wentz figures to take a big leap, especially after the Eagles surrounded him with legitimate weapons to work with moving forward. Meanwhile, Jim Schwartz’s defense features one of the best lines in the league, one that should be able to get after quarterbacks with regularity.

Reality: Jeffery and Smith were just what the doctor ordered: Jeffery had 789 yards and led the team with nine touchdowns, while Smith added 430 yards and two scores. Wentz’s two new receivers also helped open things up for a breakout season from Nelson Agholor. His 768 yards were more than double his yardage from the previous season, and he caught eight touchdown passes. Blount was the rushing leader in a committee that ranked No. 3 in the league, and Long was third on the team with five sacks.

Oh, and the Eagles won the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, with Foles as the MVP. The pieces they added in free agency were just enough to take the team to the next level.

Key free agent additions: RB Rex Burkhead, DE Lawrence Guy, CB Stephon Gilmore, TE Dwayne Allen (trade), WR Brandin Cooks (trade)

Expectations: The Patriots don’t usually make a lot of noise in free agency, but they did last offseason to give Tom Brady a dangerous deep threat in Cooks. They brought in Allen to replace Martellus Bennett after letting him walk in free agency, and did the same with Burkhead in place of Blount. Lawrence Guy came in to fill the void left by Long’s departure in free agency, and Gilmore rounded out the secondary. Pats Pulpit said “anything less than a Super Bowl will be a disappointment.”

The offense upgraded with players like Cooks, and the defense added Gilmore while retaining Dont’a Hightower and Malcolm Butler. The 2016 Super Bowl champions should be better at every single positional group in 2017 and will face the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Reality: It mostly worked. Cooks was a great addition, with 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns. Guy had 58 tackles and a sack, and Gilmore started 13 games and had two picks and nine pass breakups. Burkhead didn’t come close to Blount’s rushing yards from the previous season, but he did score eight total touchdowns. Allen was a quality blocking tight end, but underwhelmed as a receiver, with just 10 catches for 86 yards and a score. Otherwise, the Patriots’ acquisitions lived up to the hype — except for that pesky Super Bowl loss.

Key free agents: CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell, S Barry Church

Expectations: The Jaguars seem to “win the offseason” every year, and last year was no different. Still, they were going into 2017 with Blake Bortles at quarterback, so expectations still weren’t terribly high, according to Big Cat Country:

The Jags are making the playoffs if Bortles transforms into Alex Smith and becomes incredibly efficient while cutting his interception total in half.

Reality: These additions, particularly Campbell and Bouye, put the defense over the top. Jacksonville lost Allen Robinson to a torn ACL and suffered through inconsistent play from Bortles at times. The Jags still managed to win the AFC South, make it to the playoffs, and beat the Bills and the Steelers en route to an AFC Championship loss to the Patriots. They even earned a new nickname along the way: Sacksonville.

Key free agents: LB Connor Barwin, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, C John Sullivan, CB Kayvon Webster, LT Andrew Whitworth, WR Robert Woods

Expectations: People thought the Rams could improve on their 4-12 record from 2016. But a dramatic turnaround? Not according to SB Nation’s Rams site, Turf Show Times.

The Rams? Going “all the way?” We’d need 100 unconnected things to go perfectly right in a sport where good teams average about 70 out of 100 things going their way and the Rams average about 12. Let us not spend time, our most precious resource, on this. New head coach Sean McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips could get the Rams on track to provide a realistic answer to this in the future. For 2017? Yeah, no.

Reality: Shoring up the line with Sullivan and Whitworth did wonders for Jared Goff, who lived up to his first-overall pick billing, and Todd Gurley, who had a full return to form in 2017. Woods totaled 781 yards and five touchdowns, while Barwin had five sacks. It wasn’t just because of their free agency haul, but the Rams were much better than anyone expected. They went 11-5, won the division, led the league in scoring, and nearly swept the league’s end-of-season awards — McVay was named Coach of the Year, Gurley was Offensive Player of the Year, and Aaron Donald was Defensive Player of the Year.

Key free agents: LB Lawrence Timmons, S Nate Allen, DE William Hayes (trade), TE Anthony Fasano, TE Julius Thomas (trade), G Ted Larsen

Expectations: The Dolphins are another perpetual winner every offseason, though most of their best moves last year involved re-signing key players, such as Kenny Stills and Reshad Jones. The Phinsider didn’t expect the free agency haul to be the difference.

The Dolphins are going as far as Jay Ajayi can carry them this year. If he turns out to be the special running back everyone seems to think he can be, the team has a chance to find some great success this year. That said, the defense has to become at least decent with a retooled linebacker corps and some growth from some young defensive linemen and secondary players. Ajayi is the key to Miami’s success, but he will need some help from the defense.

Reality: Welp. Just like the Dolphins themselves, their free agent additions didn’t have a memorable season. Plus, the team had to bring in Jay Cutler after losing Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury in the preseason and traded Ajayi to the Eagles before the deadline. Miami finished 6-10 and ranked in the bottom half of the league in almost every notable category.

Key free agents: WR DeSean Jackson, DT Chris Baker, S J.J. Wilcox, LS Garrison Sanborn

Expectations: Fine, so adding a long snapper didn’t actually move the needle much. But people loved the Chris Baker signing, and the addition of DeSean Jackson carried the hope that Jameis Winston would take a huge step forward. From Bucs Nation:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t been to the playoffs since the 2007 season, but that’s not going to stop them. They came close last year, and with Jackson and O.J. Howard in the building, they’ve got enough talent to push them over the top. Winston should take the next step to becoming a top-10 quarterback, and Mike Smith has the tools to build an excellent defense — as we saw at the end of last season.

Reality: Winston hurt his shoulder and missed some time. Jackson ended up with 668 yards and just three touchdowns. Baker was OK, with 33 tackles and one-half sack, but he didn’t stick in Tampa Bay beyond the season. The team released him this February, and he signed with the Bengals not long after. The Bucs traded Wilcox to the Steelers before the season even started. They went 5-11 and were the only team in the NFC South to miss the postseason.

Free agency is an important component of building a roster. But it’s far from the only factor. Sometimes it’s impossible to anticipate how a player will actually fit the chemistry of his new team. Injuries can derail everything, while effective coaching can overcome some weakness.

Yes, a successful free agency haul can turn a team around, but it helps if the team is well-coached and key players stay healthy. So when this year’s crop of free agency winners is crowned, it’s fine to get excited — just know that there’s still a long road ahead.